What are you buying today?

[ValueArb]

Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

[woltac]

Increased my FRFHF starter position.

[Spekulatius]

Adding to VNT and bought some starter shares in VRTX

[shamelesscloner]

Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

 

I thought you might like that one ;)

[valueinvestor]

Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA  ;D ;D ;D

[sarganaga]

Lumen (LUMN)

 

Can you share any compelling writeups that you've come across?

 

Michael Burry likes the stock.

 

This article from Seeking Alpha and the discussion which follows lays out most of the bullish and bearish arguments https://seekingalpha.com/article/4405414-lumen-reports-solid-fourth-quarter

 

Bears see declining revenue, lots of stock compensation for management, some still butt hurt over dividend cut awhile back after management indicated it was safe.

 

On the positive side for me

 

Lumen generates quite a bit of cash flow that it's using to pay down debt substantially. That's what they said they were going to do when they cut the dividend.

 

A well covered dividend north of 8%.

 

Michael Burry's involvement helps me convince myself that I'm not just being a misguided yield whore.

 

Value investor, Mason Hawkins, has it as his largest position across his Longleaf funds. He's underwater having owned it since 2017. He met with Lumen management in December and added to his position. FWIW his performance has been grim as it has for many real value managers.

 

There's a wide discrepancy between what believers and unbelievers see as true value for this one. I'm choosing to see the glass half full. A bit less than 4% position for me.

 

 

[SleepyCapital]

Bought a little more BABA and Fairfax India today.

[ValueArb]

Plug Power (PLUG).

 

It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.

 

Oh,  and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.

 

I thought you might like that one ;)

 

 

I forgot who recommended it, was it you? If so thanks for the suggestion, I really liked this one.

[shhughes1116]

Hoovering up some UNTC.  Not generally an O&G guy (aside from midstream), but this one is pretty cheap and the publication of post-restructuring financials should make that more obvious.

[K2SO]

LMT

[rkbabang]

FSLY.  I've got a permanent position, but I've also been trading on Fastly's volatility the past 6 months or so.  Buying in the 80s selling >$100.

 

[Ice77]

DMYD/Genius sports

[benchmark]

CSU.TO    8)

 

wabuffo

 

at these level? curious about your thesis.

[wabuffo]

at these level? curious about your thesis.

 

I've been watching the Company for 5-6 years but never invested in it.  But the new capital allocation strategy is a very big game-changer if you run the numbers on it.

 

I think the decision to fully reinvest all of their free cash flow completely changes the valuation math if one believes they can do it.

 

And these guys have the track record to do it successfully.  We'll see - it might not work as well in practice as on paper.

 

Bill

[wisowis]

Picked up some Fortis

[drzola]

May double down on FFH.to once it settles down prior to annual release in March 2021.

Fitch is positive on USA home insurance so most likely ORH will do well.

 

https://www.printfriendly.com/p/g/xEwtwa

[CGJB]

This week I added to HES and OGZPY.

 

I also added tiny amounts to GZPFY, LUKOY and SGTZY.

[gokou3]

Picked up some Fortis

May I ask what value do you see in Fortis (FTS)?  I see a very solid 4% yielder with 6% annual growth in the foreseeable future.  Not bad, but nearly-as-solid yield plays like TC Energy is yielding close to 6% with similar growth.

[young_yokich]

Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs.

 

Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.

[shamelesscloner]

Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs.

 

Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.

 

Interesting idea! Here's my brother in Fort Worth taking advantage of his new ice bath...

[zippy1]

May double down on FFH.to once it settles down prior to annual release in March 2021.

Fitch is positive on USA home insurance so most likely ORH will do well.

 

https://www.printfriendly.com/p/g/xEwtwa

I wonder how the recent Texas winter storm would affect the home insurance companies?

[sleepydragon]

Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs.

 

Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.

 

Due to Covid, houses with swimming pools are selling much faster as nobody dare to use ymca’s pools. Many homeowners are also building new swimming pools.

However, there is a lot of service providers in this industry. The biggest cost of maintaining a swimming pool is electricity, so utility companies love them

[young_yokich]

I wonder how the recent Texas winter storm would affect the home insurance companies?

 

 

yeah that was my initial direction with home insurance companies first...I still think the insurers are going to be impacted by this event negatively, IMO...Damages are estimated to be north $18B 2nd highest in TX. Most of the claims are going to be related to water damages i.e. dominated by water claims. Based on those estimates this puts them on the 2nd costliest catastrophe, next to huricane Ike in 2008 the damage costs were a whopping $21.5B according to these guys https://www.iii.org/

 

Of the top insurers, StateFarm is the leader in Texas, then Allstate. at least on my part i'm not able to see their prices on an incline for the time being because typically in the immediate term, insurers price of the stock declines, normally because the damages are assessed and insurers EPS's are adjusted downward for the next few weeks, months but once the payout claims begin to kick in then their premium begins to rise and the stock price tends to rise along reaching higher highs.

 

With this winter storm impact, besides Texas, hardest hit states include, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee .I personally don't have analysis on these states in terms insurers market share...but it may be worth a look. let's say (hypothetically speaking here) Statefarm is a dominant player in all of the hardest hit states, than that will move the needle for the stock IMO once the payout claims begin to kick and the rebound etc.

 

 

[thepupil]

Isn’t State Farm is a mutual? owned by its policy holders ; there is not publicly traded stock, right?

[Cigarbutt]

Isn’t State Farm is a mutual? owned by its policy holders ; there is not publicly traded stock, right?

State Farm is a mutual but it has a dominant presence which is very relevant for competitors and an argument could be built that they are sacrificing profit at the expense of underwriting standards (policy holders (owners) don't seem to mind) and have an unusual bundling advantage due to scale and scope.

State Farm is unusual and there may be something to learn.

The video is dated but the underlying questions remain.

When Benjamin Franklin set up an insurance operation in Philadelphia, it was a mutual-type of organization.

https://fortune.com/company/state-farm-insurance-cos/fortune500/

---) back to what are you buying?