K2SO

The problem with the blockchain is that every transaction is recorded. So it has advantages over gold and silver but also disadvantages. One of these assets acts as risk on and one acts as risk off. It's only a matter of time before a lot of that crypto money finds its way into precious metals. I can see a lot of "off the grid" utility for silver coins in a world where all commerce is done electronically and paper money is no more.

Use 'em both. There is no one magic metric, don't use PE in isolation either.

Think I asked this same question back in the day, in either the WeCommerce or Tiny thread. Seems like a nice guy. Very well connected. A few people I respect say positive things about him so I'm curious, but I see no evidence of any special investment acumen.

I write a free newsletter, primarily to promote a book I wrote last year. I purposely try not to overly rely on Buffett and Munger concepts because they have been done to death. But the first time I mentioned them in a post, it got 10x the views that I normally get. I think a lot of this is a function of giving the people what they want. Many of us have been steeped in this stuff for decades but we forget that there are many people out there discovering this wisdom for the first time.

Why should it? Altria is in big trouble with PM re-entering the US market and is way behind the competition on RRPs. Given management's recent history (look no further than JUUL) I'm not betting on them to right the ship anytime soon. At the end of the day all they will have is the Marlboro brand in the US and that's a declining customer base.

Well a globally diversified stock portfolio would be holding up equally well. And longer term, that's a productive asset that produces cash flows and has a non-zero intrinsic value.

Well a globally diversified stock portfolio would be holding up equally well. And longer term, that's a productive asset that produces cash flows and has a non-zero intrinsic value.

Super cool, thanks for sharing!

Taking it to its logical conclusion we just end up back to V and MA networks which can do it all at a relatively low cost. I am a complete idiot when it comes to this but I have no idea how blockchains scale in any practical way without centralization, the bane of DeFi.

It will be time to buy stocks again, in size, when the term "compounder" is forever shunned.

My take is that it's not about outperformance. That's a byproduct that you hope to experience. It's really about having conviction in the strategy your manager is implementing on your behalf, that allows you to hold on and invest more when the market is tanking. Not that we're there right now, but I'd much rather have an active strategy with someone I trust making decisions on my behalf over an index that is almost 30% made up of momentum tech stocks. If the cost is that I underperform while the bubble continues to inflate, I'm fine with that.

Peterson's message would be pretty unremarkable at any other time in history but stands out today because it is in opposition to the "you're ok, I'm ok" ethos that we surround ourselves with these days. The man has absolutely struggled with his physical and mental health but that doesn't reduce the importance of his message. In my opinion it only strengthens it, because it's coming from a place of wisdom and experience that few of us have had to deal with.

Thanks for your thoughts. I wonder how realistic this is. First of all, will regulators allow it to happen? Will established banks and networks "fold" DeFi into their offerings instead, as currently seems to be happening (Visa and MC, for example, are making big investments in the area, and the mega banks will not cede business lines quietly). Second, the learning curve and self custody are huge issues as the dollar amounts and stakes get higher. I'm really struggling with this because while I do believe that we can create "better" forms of money and financial networks on top of this technology, I'm not sure if it is just too complex and risky to ever actually be more than a fringe thing.

I suppose my question is whether ETH continues to have value if many (if not most) of the applications built on it are worthless? My bias is that I also think that BTC is essentially useless and a giant ponzi... but that's another matter altogether. I'm trying to figure out if ETH has intrinsic value beyond cashing in on zombie and rock jpegs. Because if it does I think it is worth holding.

Hard to disagree, the vast majority of these coins will be worthless. I wonder... how much of ETH network traffic and value depends on NFTs and on these secondary coins. The house of cards will eventually fall... and I wonder if it will take something like ETH down with it. In other words, is DeFi really just a house of cards built atop shitcoins?

PM, MO, BTI.

I have no idea whether we are on the precipice of significant inflation or are about to fall back into a deflationary funk once the sugar rush ends. What I know is that tobacco stocks are a phenomenal way to play either outcome. Rates stay low, it's a yield play. Inflation kicks up, it's one of the few businesses with guaranteed pricing power demonstrated over decades. And valuations are dirt cheap. Many thanks to all the ESG investors out there.

Buyer. Way out of the money. Will add to this over time if BTC continues to rise. It's "amazing" what he's done but I think it goes down in history as a remarkably stupid move.

MSTR Jan 23 puts.

Agree that in theory this SHOULD be the case, but if you think that the inflation figures we have seen over the past 2 years and the yields on bonds have compensated you for this loss of purchasing power, then I can't agree. Having said that, the markets tell the story, and if bond, lumber and copper's recent moves are correct, then we could be seeing the end of this very temporary period of "transitory" inflation. I'm not religious on the matter and open to changing my mind. However I'm operating under the assumption that high inflation is coming eventually. Because if governments and central banks can escape the money printing and fiscal stimulus of the past year without runaway inflation, prepare to see this as the new playbook for every future recession.

Yup. I think most of these economists are isolated from the impacts of inflation because they aren't out there every day seeing what's happening with prices. I include myself in that group. I was shocked last month to find that a dozen donuts from a local gourmet shop are up about 50% over the past 2 years. My wife laughed at me like yeah, where have you been? Everything is up! Rosenberg thinks he's a contrarian with this call but he's just following the bond market's lead. If I ignore the bond market and instead go by what I see and what I hear in earnings calls, we are on the brink of some pretty major inflation.

Adding to a small position in Largo Resources (LGO.TO). Historically a vanadium miner, now turning into a stealth battery/green energy play.

I stopped listening to TIP way before the crypto thing. They just seemed so focused on macro calls (more accurately, "guesses") and it was just feeding my own bad habits worrying about macro stuff and distracting me from the corporate analysis that really matters. I don't think they were ever very insightful "value" investors, FWIW, just early enough to the podcast game to win an audience. Now seeing how Preston has gone full bitcoin it's not surprising at all. Glad I cut away when I did.

Could not resist starting a position in BRND.A Here's a quick overview: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-most-valuable-greenhouse-in-america

To buy reasonably valued equities with a secure FCF yield, and hopefully dividends that can help you finance the debt... maybe. Depends on your situation, experience, and risk tolerance. Crypto? Great idea if you feel like playing Russian roulette with your home equity. In other words, horrible idea.