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young_yokich

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  1. yeah that was my initial direction with home insurance companies first...I still think the insurers are going to be impacted by this event negatively, IMO...Damages are estimated to be north $18B 2nd highest in TX. Most of the claims are going to be related to water damages i.e. dominated by water claims. Based on those estimates this puts them on the 2nd costliest catastrophe, next to huricane Ike in 2008 the damage costs were a whopping $21.5B according to these guys https://www.iii.org/ Of the top insurers, StateFarm is the leader in Texas, then Allstate. at least on my part i'm not able to see their prices on an incline for the time being because typically in the immediate term, insurers price of the stock declines, normally because the damages are assessed and insurers EPS's are adjusted downward for the next few weeks, months but once the payout claims begin to kick in then their premium begins to rise and the stock price tends to rise along reaching higher highs. With this winter storm impact, besides Texas, hardest hit states include, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee .I personally don't have analysis on these states in terms insurers market share...but it may be worth a look. let's say (hypothetically speaking here) Statefarm is a dominant player in all of the hardest hit states, than that will move the needle for the stock IMO once the payout claims begin to kick and the rebound etc.
  2. Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs. Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.
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