Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

Completed my buys of RSXJ today. Bought kholy and rsxj last week and hoped to complete it this week, but kholy has run away. I am now at nearly 25% allocation to emerging market, with 10% russia and 10% china.

Posted

more GNCMA (actually trade around this position a bit because it is so large) and  some WDAY short term options at opening. Options already a double but looking for a tad bit more.  ;)

Posted

LMCA, THRX

 

Confirmation bias endorphins kicking in! I'm stalking THRX, probably being greedy and will miss it (like i did with freaking K); but hoping to get it in the mid 20's.

Posted

more GNCMA (actually trade around this position a bit because it is so large) and  some WDAY short term options at opening. Options already a double but looking for a tad bit more.  ;)

 

I too got some GNCMA & AIQ - my thought was those were sold off as part of the NASDAQ going on sale today....

 

HOWEVER - I am not sure I am comfortable enough to have a big position in GNCMA -  just looking at the 10 year chart I could just see that not a lot of value has been created, although that is not to say may be we are at the point where a lot of value could be realized.

Posted

LMCA, THRX

 

Confirmation bias endorphins kicking in! I'm stalking THRX, probably being greedy and will miss it (like i did with freaking K); but hoping to get it in the mid 20's.

 

My amazing charting skills suggest that it should at least dip to 26  ;D

 

Posted

THRX seems a bit too complicated for me.  At the high level it's an amazing story, you have Seth Klarman and GSK holding huge positions.  GSK will be paying out royalties to THRX so they know the business better than anyone.  Both parties have purchased shares at higher prices.  You also have a spinoff to potentially unlock some value.  So at that 50,000 ft level it looks great.

 

However, when you dig into the sales estimates for the COPD drugs they are all over the map.  Peak sales from $1B to $4B.  At $4B it's a steal and will probably double or more, it will go down to the teens at $1B.  So for someone outside of the sector it is a tough call.  I guess, in either scenario it doesn't seem likely to be a 0, maybe a 50% loss assuming something doesn't go horribly wrong with the drugs.

 

It seems you basically just have to trust the major holders to buy into it.  Honestly that's probably as good a thesis as any but I generally like to have a better feel for the fundamentals.  Am I missing anything?

Posted

My amazing charting skills suggest that it should at least dip to 26  ;D

 

How do you come to that number? I can only "see" that it has a high chance of falling further, but i don`t "see" yet how far. At 20 there is a massive support, but that doesn`t mean it drops that low.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...