stylized_fact

I can never resist a macro discussion on a value investing message board. This article by Carmen Reinhardt implies that rates should remain subdued for a while: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dollar-strength-and-currency-market-intervention-by-carmen-reinhart-2016-12 In his last presentation, Gundlach pointed out that the US is now over 100% debt/GDP. That could limit plans for fiscal stimulus. https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1085786

In a recent interview, Michael Lewis remarked that when you look for a doctor, you should seek out someone completely unmatched to the stereotype. The argument goes that such a person would have had a really hard time in medical school and therefore is probably really good. I have a hard time understanding how this thinking might apply to investment management. An example that springs to mind is Michael Burry, but he didn't have a big struggle soliciting capital. I guess VIC and maybe twitter serve as an "alternative" farm system for the industry, complementing CBS, Wharton and other traditional sources.

I guess this is one way to financial success as a writer.

Just finished How We Learn by Benedict Carey now reading The Innovators by Walter Isaacson which is completely awesome The Marshmallow Test by Walter Mischel was good

Tap Dancing to Work is on there.

Here's an interview with the author: http://www.harriman-house.com/bookResources/140715%20-%20Big%20Interview%20with%20Frederike%20Vanhaverbeke.mp3

The debate here reminds me of the feud between Fama and Shiller and hints that psychiatry is an even more dismal science than economics. Suicide rates have grown noticeably in the US over the past ten years and now outpace automobile deaths. Improving our understanding of addiction, depression and suicide should be a higher priority for society. I'm somewhat reluctant to advocate for increased funding of research, as institutional progress has been so limited (is it similar to programs of foreign aid?). It doesn't get around the fact that these are very challenging problems: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/science/650-million-psychiatric-research.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfenW43EY-E

Here is a fairly recent paper that identifies the important factors in insider transactions. There was an SSRN paper where (among other things) they identify insider signals as a big contributor to outperformance of ideas posted on VIC. I can't find it now. http://www.people.hbs.edu/lcohen/pdffiles/pomalco.pdf

Here's a blog post from Mark Mobius that appeared earlier today. http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/2014/05/28/thailands-tensions-resilience/ There are a handful of Thai ADRs in the US, though most are very thinly traded (BKKLY and SMUUY, for example). The selection of US listed Vietnamese securities is even smaller - I could only find an ETF. Is anyone here involved in these situations? Beside Templeton (and maybe Rogers) are there funds or managers that know these regions well?

Here's a book review by Robert Solow that I have read once but need to read again, and probably a third time. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117429/capital-twenty-first-century-thomas-piketty-reviewed I liked Krugman's criticism that the new "supermanager" class is largely HFM types whose compensation is very directly tied to financial performance, and not usually the result of a cozy relationship with a corrupt BOD.

This is interesting. I remember seeing someone asking about buying Turkey banks here. Maybe it was you? What do you think about Turkey's regulatory environment? Halk Bank is 51% state owned, so there is certainly a risk of it being used to enact fiscal stimulus, especially given the weak economy and recent political unrest.

Turkiye Halk Bankasi A. S. maybe past peak hate

LRM.L http://quinzedix.blogspot.com/2013/10/lombard-risk-management-enterprise.html added to GNCMA