stylized_fact

I can never resist a macro discussion on a value investing message board. This article by Carmen Reinhardt implies that rates should remain subdued for a while: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dollar-strength-and-currency-market-intervention-by-carmen-reinhart-2016-12 In his last presentation, Gundlach pointed out that the US is now over 100% debt/GDP. That could limit plans for fiscal stimulus. https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1085786

In a recent interview, Michael Lewis remarked that when you look for a doctor, you should seek out someone completely unmatched to the stereotype. The argument goes that such a person would have had a really hard time in medical school and therefore is probably really good. I have a hard time understanding how this thinking might apply to investment management. An example that springs to mind is Michael Burry, but he didn't have a big struggle soliciting capital. I guess VIC and maybe twitter serve as an "alternative" farm system for the industry, complementing CBS, Wharton and other traditional sources.

I guess this is one way to financial success as a writer.

Just finished How We Learn by Benedict Carey now reading The Innovators by Walter Isaacson which is completely awesome The Marshmallow Test by Walter Mischel was good

Tap Dancing to Work is on there.

Here's an interview with the author: http://www.harriman-house.com/bookResources/140715%20-%20Big%20Interview%20with%20Frederike%20Vanhaverbeke.mp3

The debate here reminds me of the feud between Fama and Shiller and hints that psychiatry is an even more dismal science than economics. Suicide rates have grown noticeably in the US over the past ten years and now outpace automobile deaths. Improving our understanding of addiction, depression and suicide should be a higher priority for society. I'm somewhat reluctant to advocate for increased funding of research, as institutional progress has been so limited (is it similar to programs of foreign aid?). It doesn't get around the fact that these are very challenging problems: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/22/science/650-million-psychiatric-research.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rfenW43EY-E

Here is a fairly recent paper that identifies the important factors in insider transactions. There was an SSRN paper where (among other things) they identify insider signals as a big contributor to outperformance of ideas posted on VIC. I can't find it now. http://www.people.hbs.edu/lcohen/pdffiles/pomalco.pdf

Here's a blog post from Mark Mobius that appeared earlier today. http://mobius.blog.franklintempleton.com/2014/05/28/thailands-tensions-resilience/ There are a handful of Thai ADRs in the US, though most are very thinly traded (BKKLY and SMUUY, for example). The selection of US listed Vietnamese securities is even smaller - I could only find an ETF. Is anyone here involved in these situations? Beside Templeton (and maybe Rogers) are there funds or managers that know these regions well?

Here's a book review by Robert Solow that I have read once but need to read again, and probably a third time. http://www.newrepublic.com/article/117429/capital-twenty-first-century-thomas-piketty-reviewed I liked Krugman's criticism that the new "supermanager" class is largely HFM types whose compensation is very directly tied to financial performance, and not usually the result of a cozy relationship with a corrupt BOD.

This is interesting. I remember seeing someone asking about buying Turkey banks here. Maybe it was you? What do you think about Turkey's regulatory environment? Halk Bank is 51% state owned, so there is certainly a risk of it being used to enact fiscal stimulus, especially given the weak economy and recent political unrest.

Turkiye Halk Bankasi A. S. maybe past peak hate

LRM.L http://quinzedix.blogspot.com/2013/10/lombard-risk-management-enterprise.html added to GNCMA

Here is an interesting interview with Prosperity Capital's Mattias Westman

I "fed the fish while they were hungry" with this one. I had opened a position shortly after reading the Berkshire 2012 letter while also noticing the holding in Chou's portfolio. Norm's recent question forced me to go back and review the company's progress over the past year. What created the most concern for me was what I perceived as ongoing secular decline at Harlequin, which I thought would have had a better moat than the newsgathering side. I'm also a bit concerned about management's capital allocation skills.

Fairfax adds more Torstar: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/20/us-torstar-fairfax-fin-idUSBREA2J29P20140320

You are right, there is no good evidence of it yet. I just am reading about it some in different places, and thought that people need to consider it when debating this idea. Just one small part of the pro/con on this question. One trend I see is that in the IT space, earning power tends to stagnate or reduce with age (may due to stagnating skills or age bias or something else) and as you get older (40+ or more), the chance of getting replaced by a younger person is quite high. Unfair as it may seem, I think it is quite rational for a company to replace someone with 30% less skill but being paid 50-60% less. reason for bring up is that becoming a full time private investors, looks like a good option as one ages in tech space as the opportunity cost is going down (unless you have the passion for tech and are acquiring the latest skills) Here are some observations on this topic from someone about to graduate from the Columbia CS program: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/magazine/silicon-valleys-youth-problem.html

A new twist on appraisal rights. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/a-new-form-of-shareholder-activism-gains-momentum https://blogs.law.harvard.edu/corpgov/2013/05/16/appraisal-rights-the-next-frontier-in-deal-litigation/

Large block owners as a percent of total (according to cnbc.com) PWT 49% LTS 22% SGL 2%

Debt load generally appears too high, given the risks and volatility of the business. To make matters worse, some companies appear to distribute too much of their cash flow. I wonder when some of them, just get the message and deleverage. The Canadian E&p's certainly looks cheap based on price/cash flow metric, but one should look at the EV/cash flow ratio and then the relative valuation advantage to US peers is not as large as it first seems, imo. Capital allocation at PWT, LTS, and SGL make them kind of hard to take seriously. It would be so much more shareholder friendly to discontinue dividend payments and instead repurchase debt and shares. A dividend cancellation would likely lead to a swoon in these stocks, allowing capital to really be put to good use. Hard for me to figure out. Do these managements maybe worry they would be disenfranchising Chinese investors by taking such an action? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-19/sunshine-to-penn-west-hamper-china-bet-corporate-canada.html

Looks like the Canadian version of Syms/Filene's Basement. Does anyone know about their real estate?

Mortgage REITs are popular with retail investors. NLY and AGNC had abnormally large volumes today. Most muni closed end funds have seen jumps in their discounts to NAV lately (these are also popular with retail). I have been buying DSL. What do your think about ETN like MORL? I wasn't aware of this security, but it's now on my watch list. Here's a panel discussion involving specialists in CEF's that happened about a month ago. They discuss end of year selling, along with other topics. http://pristineadvisers.wprny.com/live-conference/discussion-with-fund-managers-and-financial-advisors/

Mortgage REITs are popular with retail investors. NLY and AGNC had abnormally large volumes today. Most muni closed end funds have seen jumps in their discounts to NAV lately (these are also popular with retail). I have been buying DSL.