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Posted

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor.

 

However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.

 

I hear you.  For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time.  I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB.  The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up.  If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out.  I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out.  Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps).

 

Well, maybe I was totally off on this one  ;D ;D ;D

I put another nibble in for V this morning.

 

I raised a few of my bids but dropped the number of shares.  I have about 15 orders in.  This is feeling too much like w*rk.  Got one or two fills in Canada before the ridiculous circuit breakers hit. 

 

In general, this likely gets way better (or worse depending on your perspective, before things settle down.  Without a government infusion of cash I can easily see every airline in the world, every hotel chain, cruise companies, and all the ancillary travel related businesses in bankruptcy, in short order.  Virtually every person I know who has travel plans has been cancelling them.  A friend of mine was at his rheumatologist this morning and was advised to cancel a trip to Vancouver next week.  The Doctor was cancelling a trip to Boston for a conference that would have had 16000 attendees.  My sons school runs an annual trip to Europe and they have cancelled (a week ago).  I could pull another dozen examples from my own social circle. 

 

These kinds of hits to the economy don’t come without huge pain, and there is no easy reversal.  It is totally irrelevant whether there is a real threat or not anymore.  It’s all perception shaping reality. 

Posted

I raised a few of my bids but dropped the number of shares.  I have about 15 orders in.  This is feeling too much like w*rk.  Got one or two fills in Canada before the ridiculous circuit breakers hit. 

 

In general, this likely gets way better (or worse depending on your perspective, before things settle down.  Without a government infusion of cash I can easily see every airline in the world, every hotel chain, cruise companies, and all the ancillary travel related businesses in bankruptcy, in short order.  Virtually every person I know who has travel plans has been cancelling them.  A friend of mine was at his rheumatologist this morning and was advised to cancel a trip to Vancouver next week.  The Doctor was cancelling a trip to Boston for a conference that would have had 16000 attendees.  My sons school runs an annual trip to Europe and they have cancelled (a week ago).  I could pull another dozen examples from my own social circle. 

 

These kinds of hits to the economy don’t come without huge pain, and there is no easy reversal.  It is totally irrelevant whether there is a real threat or not anymore.  It’s all perception shaping reality.

 

You think Iran is digging burial pits that can be seen from space because of perception of risk?

 

WASHINGTON POST

Coronavirus burial pits so vast they’re visible from space

Iranian authorities began digging a pair of trenches for victims just days after the government disclosed the initial outbreak. Together, their lengths are that of a football field.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/

 

 

The government will not be bailing out common shareholders.....how can you people not see this?

Posted

Buying some long-term compounders (an outlook of 5 years or so): FB, Tencent, Baidu, ANTM, Brkb

Also, buying businesses that are acquisitive and will use the current climate to influence deal flow: Bery, (maybe MTY), and KKR for now. If anyone else has some defensive rollup ideas, I'd love to hear them.

 

 

Posted

I raised a few of my bids but dropped the number of shares.  I have about 15 orders in.  This is feeling too much like w*rk.  Got one or two fills in Canada before the ridiculous circuit breakers hit. 

 

In general, this likely gets way better (or worse depending on your perspective, before things settle down.  Without a government infusion of cash I can easily see every airline in the world, every hotel chain, cruise companies, and all the ancillary travel related businesses in bankruptcy, in short order.  Virtually every person I know who has travel plans has been cancelling them.  A friend of mine was at his rheumatologist this morning and was advised to cancel a trip to Vancouver next week.  The Doctor was cancelling a trip to Boston for a conference that would have had 16000 attendees.  My sons school runs an annual trip to Europe and they have cancelled (a week ago).  I could pull another dozen examples from my own social circle. 

 

These kinds of hits to the economy don’t come without huge pain, and there is no easy reversal.  It is totally irrelevant whether there is a real threat or not anymore.  It’s all perception shaping reality.

 

You think Iran is digging burial pits that can be seen from space because of perception of risk?

 

WASHINGTON POST

Coronavirus burial pits so vast they’re visible from space

Iranian authorities began digging a pair of trenches for victims just days after the government disclosed the initial outbreak. Together, their lengths are that of a football field.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/

 

 

The government will not be bailing out common shareholders.....how can you people not see this?

 

Uhm no, I guess didn’t communicate that clearly.  I was deliberately staying out of the debate on whether a risk exists or not.  It’s no longer relevant.  The economy and stocks are going real low so pick your bets wisely. 

Posted

Bought back some of the FRFHF that I sold a couple of weeks ago.

 

God it's tempting....

 

Are you willing to sell all your holdings and wait for the bottom to put all your net worth into FRFHF?

Posted

I raised a few of my bids but dropped the number of shares.  I have about 15 orders in.  This is feeling too much like w*rk.  Got one or two fills in Canada before the ridiculous circuit breakers hit. 

 

In general, this likely gets way better (or worse depending on your perspective, before things settle down.  Without a government infusion of cash I can easily see every airline in the world, every hotel chain, cruise companies, and all the ancillary travel related businesses in bankruptcy, in short order.  Virtually every person I know who has travel plans has been cancelling them.  A friend of mine was at his rheumatologist this morning and was advised to cancel a trip to Vancouver next week.  The Doctor was cancelling a trip to Boston for a conference that would have had 16000 attendees.  My sons school runs an annual trip to Europe and they have cancelled (a week ago).  I could pull another dozen examples from my own social circle. 

 

These kinds of hits to the economy don’t come without huge pain, and there is no easy reversal.  It is totally irrelevant whether there is a real threat or not anymore.  It’s all perception shaping reality.

 

You think Iran is digging burial pits that can be seen from space because of perception of risk?

 

WASHINGTON POST

Coronavirus burial pits so vast they’re visible from space

Iranian authorities began digging a pair of trenches for victims just days after the government disclosed the initial outbreak. Together, their lengths are that of a football field.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/

 

 

The government will not be bailing out common shareholders.....how can you people not see this?

 

"Visible from space" used to be a pretty spectacular thing when it meant "visible with the naked eye from space".

 

Now it means we've used a high powered satellite camera to spot x2 100 yard long trenches which were dug in a cemetery in a densely packed city that reported the 1st cases in a country with poor infrastructure which didn't have much chance to defend against the spread of the virus.

 

Keep stoking the fear though.

Posted

"Visible from space" used to be a pretty spectacular thing when it meant "visible with the naked eye from space".

 

Now it means we've used a high powered satellite camera to spot x2 100 yard long trenches which were dug in a cemetery in a densely packed city that reported the 1st cases in a country with poor infrastructure which didn't have much chance to defend against the spread of the virus.

 

Keep stoking the fear though.

 

When mass graves for people being killed from this virus doesn't impact you, that's pretty wild.  Burying a mass of bodies in 100 yard trenches is not like the seasonal flu...

 

I am afraid, and not of financial markets falling.  I am afraid too many people are not taking this seriously.

 

 

 

Posted

"Visible from space" used to be a pretty spectacular thing when it meant "visible with the naked eye from space".

 

Now it means we've used a high powered satellite camera to spot x2 100 yard long trenches which were dug in a cemetery in a densely packed city that reported the 1st cases in a country with poor infrastructure which didn't have much chance to defend against the spread of the virus.

 

Keep stoking the fear though.

 

When mass graves for people being killed from this virus doesn't impact you, that's pretty wild.  Burying a mass of bodies in 100 yard trenches is not like the seasonal flu...

 

I am afraid, and not of financial markets falling.  I am afraid too many people are not taking this seriously.

 

You miss the point entirely.

 

I won't bother to explain.

Posted

Adds - BTI, IRM, KMI, MO, PBCT, PH, PRU, RDSb, SBX, SPG, UTG, VIAC, VIACA, WFC and WPC.

 

New - FAST

 

Options - wrote puts on CXW and GEO.

 

Added to Vanguard small and midcap value and EM funds in an IRA.

 

Thanks

Lance

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