Spekulatius Posted March 11, 2020 Posted March 11, 2020 Rosetta Stone FRP Holdings Developers seem iffy in this environment. Might be difficult to fill/lease up buildings.
Spekulatius Posted March 11, 2020 Posted March 11, 2020 FRPH at book would be lovely. That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices.
Gregmal Posted March 11, 2020 Posted March 11, 2020 FRPH at book would be lovely. That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices. Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office?
jgyetzer Posted March 11, 2020 Posted March 11, 2020 LYV, MSG, BATRK. It seems obvious they’ll be hurt by the quarantines, but I have a hard time imagining a world where people don’t eventually start gathering a live events again.
Spekulatius Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 FRPH at book would be lovely. That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices. Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office? Works better for some jobs than others. I also support manufacturing , so I need to be on the floor sometimes. Then there is the informal exchange that happens because people run into each other or keep over coffee even. A lot of these will be missed when everyone works from his little home island. And how do you get to know people even if you only work remotely? I think a combination of both is ideal.
Uccmal Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 I have hardly traded for at least a year. I have had more activity in the last two weeks, than I have had since December 2018. I had been very slowly buying HD, V, and FB on pullbacks. Now I may get a chance to really put some cash to work. I have bids in for Apple, FB, NFLx, V, Costco, Hd, and Goog at half, or less than half, of what they closed at today. Some of my bids may never get met, but each one of these has their own vulnerabilities, in regards to the present situation, except maybe Netflix. Similar with Bam, bip, bep, td, ema, cnr, and ry in Canada. Bids in at 50% of today’s close, or lower. Also have Bam $55 US Puts I bought near the peak - bought cheap as a partial hedge, to unload. Since, I already hold all of these so I will be waiting for them to get really cheap. The markets and the economy are going to get killed over the next few weeks at least. If this situation settles in I want to hold the very best companies out there. This is not the time to buy up crappy names like cruise companies, airlines, or anything with oil and gas drilling in its company description. The speed of this whole crash is reminding me of fall 2008, and March 2009. But I don’t think we get a V shape this time, unless Covid 19 just sort of disappears with the warmer weather. Even then, the complete mothballing of entire industries will take along time to unwind.
LC Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor. However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.
Uccmal Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor. However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing. I hear you. For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time. I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB. The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up. If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out. I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out. Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps).
Orchard Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office? It's not that long ago that I saw many financial companies even encouraging people to work from home. Some had instituted a "hot desk" concept where you didn't even have a dedicated desk anymore at the office. From what I've seen, and without exception, they completely changed course and brought people back in and made it much harder to work from home. This statement is of course as of December 2019...times have clearly changed again since.
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value?
Jurgis Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value? Didn't you just say: Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO. ?
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value? Didn't you just say: Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO. ? Yep---that's the dumbest purchase ever, but if you look up thread a few pages, you can see the previous discussion. I will personally be looking at puts for companies I think are going to zero.
Jurgis Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Anyone buy any banks trading near tangible book value? Didn't you just say: Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO. ? Yep---that's the dumbest purchase ever, but if you look up thread a few pages, you can see the previous discussion. I will personally be looking at puts for companies I think are going to zero. OK. Got it. Your question was just trolling. ::)
writser Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Buying banks around tangible book during "extinction level events" has been an extremely profitable strategy historically. 65 million years ago the rodents made a killing buying Tyranno-Sachs and Velociraptor-Stanley when they were trading below book during the panic shortly after the meteor struck. On a more serious note, if you really believe this: Don't you guys see? Companies are going to revenue comp -20, -50, -80%--how many businesses can survive that? Airlines, theme parks, cruise ships, restaurants by the 1000s are dead companies walking. Hundreds of thousands of people, and 1000s of businesses are going to close. Unemployment is going to skyrocket. The gov't doesn't have enough money to bailout the people, to say nothing of the current crazy plans to bailout hotels and cruise lines. Your stocks--many of them anyway--are going to ZERO. The Democrats control the house--they aren't bailing out big business. BUY FOOD FOR A LONG TERM QUARANTINE. PRACTICE SOCIAL DISTANCING. Stay safe folks. We have a long way to go from here, so strap in. Then why the fuck are you still posting ten times a day on this forum? No family to help? Food to hoard? I guess you are fully prepped in your missile bunker, waiting for the apocalypse?
Jurgis Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Buying banks around tangible book during "extinction level events" has been an extremely profitable strategy historically. 65 million years ago the rodents made a killing buying Tyranno-Sachs and Velociraptor-Stanley when they were trading below book during the panic shortly after the meteor struck. No, just hodl dyno-coin.
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Today was a tremendous buying opportunity. This thing is worse than flu, but not by all that much. In many ways it's not as scary as flu because children are not dying. I thought today of searching for a largish population where everyone was tested for the virus and where healthcare access was poor. Here it is: "Of the 705 passengers who tested positive for the virus on the Diamond Princess, six died -- which is a death rate of less than 1%. All of the patients who died onboard were more than 70 years old." https://abcnews.go.com/Health/early-mortality-rates-covid-19-misleading-experts/story?id=69477312 Funny, ERICOPOLY, as you were a big influence to me the past few weeks. When you made a bag back in the day spending $30k on options or whatever it was, you saw that the world was not what it seemed. Italy is totally locked down. Iran is in chaos. China was on full lockdown and still largely is. South Korea is doing well and testing, and will still have a brutal time. Oil fell 25% in a day, and treasury buyers are flocking to safety. The US is so clearly following the path of the worst hit places, that by the time we get around to quarantines our problems will be enormous. Italy had 3 confirmed cases a few weeks ago! Look what happened to Asian tourist locations after SARS. This is 10x as big and still growing extremely fast. We are just getting started. I actually can't believe the market LACK of reaction the past few weeks. This was three days ago
alwaysdrawing Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Anyone else need a 15 minute breather? Might have to take a couple of these today.
LC Posted March 12, 2020 Posted March 12, 2020 Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor. However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing. I hear you. For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time. I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB. The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up. If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out. I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out. Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps). Well, maybe I was totally off on this one ;D ;D ;D I put another nibble in for V this morning.
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