What are you buying today?

[writser]

 

 

Ericopoly, this is an extinction level event.

 

 

"Extinction" of what?

 

Common sense.

[gary17]

  my personal view was the economy is hurt by over-reaction

much like the virus itself... some of the fatalities are due to the body 's immune response...

 

  anyway... i thought it is interesting S Korea did many tests and their death rate is at 0.6% -  don't disagree it is many times higher than  flu  but much less than the WHO figure of 3.4%.  this is based on  how many tests are checked.    so may be Trump with his dumb luck had it sort of right that this was a bit like flu and for most young health adult it is not any different.

 

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

 

 

[BG2008]

If the 10y stays at today's level, what's the fair value of a big bank? 1x tangible? 1.5x?

 

Priced in.

 

Eric,

 

Just wondering what level of concentration is the BAC position for you?  I have followed your investments in the past and when you put more than 50% into a position (even if it is fully hedged), I noticed that I should be paying attention. 

[Gregmal]

Topped off MSG to about a 15% position. Always been overweigh this one, but what is value investing if buying the entire thing for less than the value of the Knicks isn't a margin of safety.

[KJP]

Rosetta Stone

[Lance]

CMCSA, CXW and WFC

 

Thanks

Lance

[Lance]

VLGEA

 

Thanks

Lance

[CorpRaider]

SLG, I guess.

[bilo]

TPB

[no_free_lunch]

Bought some CFG.  Basic thesis is we have a small regional bank selling for less than 1/2 book value with a 6%+ dividend.  I know the economy is going to be a mess but I am betting that the feds provide some sort of relief to keep the banks from going under.

[rb]

BAC, EPD

[hobbit]

FIH,FAH

[Gregmal]

PCYO

 

Edit: also just grabbed some GOOG

[Castanza]

MSG

[Lance]

GEO

 

Thanks

Lance

[Artha158]

JETS

[KJP]

Rosetta Stone

FRP Holdings

[Spekulatius]

Rosetta Stone

FRP Holdings

 

Developers seem iffy in this environment. Might be difficult to fill/lease up buildings.

[Gregmal]

FRPH at book would be lovely.

[Spekulatius]

FRPH at book would be lovely.

 

That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have  VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices.

[Gregmal]

FRPH at book would be lovely.

 

That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have  VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices.

 

Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office?

[jgyetzer]

LYV, MSG, BATRK.  It seems obvious they’ll be hurt by the quarantines, but I have a hard time imagining a world where people don’t eventually start gathering a live events again.

[Spekulatius]

FRPH at book would be lovely.

 

That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have  VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices.

 

Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office?

 

Works better for some jobs than others. I also support manufacturing , so I need to be on the floor sometimes. Then there is the informal exchange that happens because people run into each other or keep over coffee even. A lot of these will be missed when everyone works from his little home island. And how do you get to know people even if you only work remotely?

 

I think a combination of both is ideal.

[Uccmal]

I have hardly traded for at least a year.  I have had more activity in the last two weeks, than I have had since December 2018.  I had been very slowly buying HD, V, and FB on pullbacks.  Now I may get a chance to really put some cash to work. 

 

I have bids in for Apple, FB, NFLx, V, Costco, Hd, and Goog at half, or less than half, of what they closed at today.  Some of my bids may never get met, but each one of these has their own vulnerabilities, in regards to the present situation, except maybe Netflix.

 

Similar with Bam, bip, bep, td, ema, cnr, and ry in Canada. 

Bids in at 50% of today’s close, or lower.  Also have Bam $55 US Puts I bought near the peak - bought cheap as a partial hedge, to unload. Since, I already hold all of these so I will be waiting for them to get really cheap. 

 

The markets and the economy are going to get killed over the next few weeks at least.  If this situation settles in I want to hold the very best companies out there.  This is not the time to buy up crappy names like cruise companies, airlines, or anything with oil and gas drilling in its company description.

 

The speed of this whole crash is reminding me of fall 2008, and March 2009.  But I don’t think we get a V shape this time, unless Covid 19 just sort of disappears with the warmer weather.  Even then, the complete mothballing of entire industries will take along time to unwind. 

 

 

[LC]

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor.

 

However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.