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bilo

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Everything posted by bilo

  1. I suggest anyone using IBKR to use the desktop version and switch to using "classic TWS". My work area is a bunch of tabbed watchlists that look like spreadsheets and link to a chart if I click on a row. Thats it. Has worked fine with minimal issues for over 15 years.
  2. have been buying RMRM, a closed end fund that is mid-conversion to a commercial MREIT. The basic situation - It is trading sub 50% of book value ($19.17) as of last measurement period (11/30) and the portfolio is now 65% commercial mortgages underwritten AFTER covid. When it completes the REIT conversion and ramps up the dividend, it will get on investors radar and the price will go up. I estimate +20% yield potential from today's price. In terms of price targets, even 80% book value is a nice return from the current level. However, for me it is mostly an incentive play - I believe RMR the manager will treat this vehicle right and use it to help improve their reputation as their growth prospects and run-rate EBITDA has been badly hit by the poor trading values of their managed REITS. I could see RMRM being used to acquire TRMT in a way that is accretive to the remaining (RMRM) entity. Really enjoy this trade (regardless of success) as it creates a nice test case in my overall hypothesis that RMR CEO is making real changes that will enhance trading values of all the RMR entities (and RMR itself). Risk of course is more (and more severe) shut downs that hurt commercial real estate and that I am wrong on my reading of future incentives/behavior by management. Short blog post and comments here: https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/1117597-nat-stewart/5524937-rmr-and-rmr-managed-companies-are-coiled-springs
  3. Interesting question. A few thoughts: I recomend that you go through the process and create a form ADV and brochure. It will help to set expectations on both sides and prevent confusion. You need to check with your local regulator. My state does not allow "friends and family" advisors to receive compensation (perhaps that is everywhere? I don't even know). Take time to know the customer and never take any risk that is not appropriate for their situation. And dollar size of the account can't be used as shorthand for "conservative". For examle, $25K might be nothing to some, for others it is their safety net if they lose their job. Obviously, you don't want to be investing that money for someone in equity - that will be "scared money" and it will almost certainly end poorly. If you have rich friend/family that want you to manage "pocket change" for them, that is likely a low risk situation - but you still want clarity on both sides about objectives and expectations (which form ADV brochure provides) It sounds like your program is diversified/quality equity, which relative to other equity strategies some might do here ( focused micro cap, etc ) might be considered low(er) risk. However, the strategy will still get wacked during a major correction. So you need to look at if that person's equity allocation to your strategy is appropriate for their financial situation. IBKR's platform is excellent for a small business, as others have said. In other words, treat it like a real business where you have a fiduciary responsibility. If that doesn't make sense or is not worth the time, I'd not get involved in it.
  4. I believe that Value Investing Still works. Very well in fact. The problem i see for many value investors is: 1. Many are formulaic thinkers who never advance beyond a simple desire to repeat what worked in the past without realizing the market is a dynamic competition that requires adaptation 2. Many value investors, particularly sophisticated ones, shoot themselves in the foot over and over and fail to learn from their own mistakes, as well as the mistakes of others. This is particularly true for long/short managers who keep impailing themselves on bubble stocks for no reason 3. Many value investors take pride in having zero market or trading acumen 4. Many talented analysts are put into portfolio management roles with little to any knowledge on how to run a portfolio, manage risk, and "step on the gas" at the right time. They are like the guy who studied boxing for years in books, then step in the ring expecting to be competent. All of these issues are encapsulated by the lazy desire to blame "value investing not working" for crummy results. And if one wants to define "value investing" as some statistical factor (or collection of them) you have been made obsolete, indeed quite a few years ago.
  5. A big issue with pure "value" names is that their is an implied sell point. In other words, it is a longer term trading strategy - you sell when it gets to fair value. The way big funds work is this. ++ performance leads to fund flows -> that money his put to work in the basket of stocks that are owned, which further juices them -> this "juicing" creates more fund flows, etc. Untill they cycle ends. The issue with value stocks is the cycle gets short-circuted by the "sale" logic. The float squeeze can't really gather steam. Value can work again, of course, in a big sense, but it is likely to be tied to a larger macro or investment theme. In the past, we have seen, "housing" drive cheap stock to insane valuations. We have seen "energy infrastructure" have a big run. We have seen "commodities" have a big run. In each case value stocks became glamor stocks. Issue at the moment, it has been a long time since we have had a secular trend that favored "value" names. That is what is needed, IMO.
  6. Good for him.. The hero worship and desire to be or see, "the next ..." is unhealthy and pointless. He has made a few hundred million, really no point in operating a fund with all the hastles and reporting requirements, when you can sit back and pick your spots while enjoying wealth and family. My two cents.
  7. "moat" is visible via persistently high return on capital. If persistant high return on capital exists, at least historically the business has had some type of moat. The analyst's job is to determine if that is likely to persist. Good case study on the type of change that can invalidate a moat would be newspaper business, where monopoly on local advertizing and classifieds was disrupted. With Coke, I agree with most of what has been said. Combine the habit forming chemicals caffeine/sugar with pervasive marketing, the worlds best distribution system, and the power of habit becomes overwhelming.
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