John Hjorth Posted February 11 Posted February 11 On 2/5/2026 at 3:16 AM, SharperDingaan said: No morphing, I'm just trying out a new approach that I've termed 'context analysis'. It's essentially a sniff test of a forecast outcome (via a social media feed, technical or fundamental analysis) against an independent supply/demand assessment; if the two conclusions broadly concur, I have something . So far it has worked very well, on pair trades, and one or two others as well . Technical analysis vs supply/demand. The chartists proclaim 'X' if 'Y'! ... but no one looks at the supply/demand of the stock, or the time frame. An earnings announcement with bad news triggers a panic mass sell off on the day ... this dog is utter sh1te! But 10 days later ? ..... it will often be trading at a higher price Not a lot of risk, and typically, the more who follow the stock, the bigger the change Scale/active management. Assume a minimum DKK 25,000 per round trip, 50% chance of being right, 1/2 made on the sale and 1/2 on the repurchase. Typically a sale of 50% of the position, ahead of the event. The bigger the resultant expected change, the smaller the position required. To make it work you need a deep and liquid market, to be holding the stock long term, and actively managing ... not really worth it unless there is a lot of volatility. Volatility. The more the better ... so Orange Boy, social media, the press, and blogs for everything in live time! .... are now your friends . NVO is a more modest application .... BTC and oil/gas are a little more aggressive . Different times, different tools, and the more propaganda the better; as in Judo, use your opponent to serve your purpose. Very modest balls, just applied risk management NVO. The thesis is the weight loss drugs commercialising successfully (the tide coming in); anything on that tide will rise, and by about the same amount. However, waves have peaks and troughs; hence when it's storming, a liner is better than a row-boat (buy quality). Against which ... the longer your hold, the lower the % of stormy days there will be, and the more the thesis will dominate. Stormy days now become your friend ..... SD SD [ @SharperDingaan ], What you have posted above makes very good sense to me, actually. - - - o 0 o - - - - I'm sorry for a late reply here, by the way. I've been away from CofB&F for some days. [I've spend a few days at Odense University Hospital, Shared Accute Urgency Reception, Trauma Center [in daily speaking here called OUH FAM] in two separate halfs, second time after getting hit, getting infected with the notorious NOVO, <-nooh! NORO virus, time spent in isolation, puking and sh*tting me self half to death. And when the socalled 'resque people' arrive in an ambulance with blue lights on, at the request by the Lady of House to pick me up, I start panicking, holding on to the backdoor frame the best I know, dearly, horisontally, those two socalled 'resque people', 'who only want to do what's best for me', both pulling hard in each leg, to get me out and down on a trolley. Next, doing their best to fasten me to the trolley, and then I panick even more, in fear of this being a the first step towards a stretchjacket, en route to a padded cell. And mind you, Lulu, my ruler, the former stray cat, who annexed the House on 9/11 2021 and took control of everything in a quick move, does nothing. What about my civil rights and protection?]
Eldad Posted February 12 Posted February 12 CPRT if Copart is now an AI loser, the AI bear raid on all the best companies has officially jumped the shark.
Spekulatius Posted February 12 Posted February 12 I eats the world. 36 minutes ago, Eldad said: CPRT if Copart is now an AI loser, the AI bear raid on all the best companies has officially jumped the shark. AI eats the world .
Spekulatius Posted February 12 Posted February 12 (edited) Got more fills on AJG, BZU and a starter in SKYH. I guess SKYH valuation now starts to take into account that the software billionaires became millionaires and have to fly coach. Liquor and beer stocks start to go up Edited February 12 by Spekulatius
Eldad Posted February 12 Posted February 12 20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: I eats the world. AI eats the world . Yeah I guess they will just store all the cars on the internet or maybe crowd source it. Sign up for a website to get paid to keep a totaled car in your driveway for a few months. AI will figure it out I’m sure.
gfp Posted February 12 Posted February 12 18 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Got more fills on AJG, BZU and a starter in SKYH. I guess SKYH valuation now starts to take into account that the software billionaires became millionaires and have to fly coach. Liquor and beer stocks start to go up haha - Sky had a half day bounce from the Super Bowl the other day, all those private jets in San Jose and someone must have noticed Sky's campus. Lasted for one afternoon and a few minutes the next morning. Back to the lows! I'm a buyer but nobody cares about Sky Harbour
Eldad Posted February 12 Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: Bought fds bro for mother in law! Man stepping out for her. It’s always MCD, JNJ, and PG for my mother in law. Too scared otherwise. I think the riskiest one I did was WSO this last time it went down LOL.
thepupil Posted February 12 Posted February 12 (edited) my 401k which is about 10% ish of my NW as of today was all in ex US stocks and up about 9% YTD. I took my ball and went home and put it all in bonds as my 401k was up 25% last year from the switch to ex US stocks from bonds. the 38% or so in like 12 months just "feels" like a lot. Asia is up a shit ton w. Japan and Korea and Taiwan all going bananas on Takaishi / AI infra euphoria. a lot of it is real...earnings going up a lot...but a lot of it also big rerating in financials and big USD selloff...(yours truly lacks a super strong view on either of those sustainability) as schmuck insurance, I bought calls on the ex US indices in my taxable to replace the exposure. these equal ~4% of the notional (0.4% of NW) and give me the upside after another 5% move through september. I expect they'll expire worthless and will be a tax writeoff. I have tons of ALEX and APTS short term gains realizing this year. Will reevaluate later this year. you can's make 3-4% on your bonds and lose on your calls in perpetuity...it's a bad strategy long term, but near term, taking advantage of the big ex US outeperformance (who knows though...maybe it continues...hence the schmuck insurance). it's this early part of sell-off where stuff i don't own is blowing up...can either try to be a hero or batten down the hatches...w/ overall markets still very muchh up / near ATH's and me not really having nothing that i'm too too excited about...battening down the hatches incrementally. Edited February 12 by thepupil
UK Posted February 12 Posted February 12 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Liquor and beer stocks start to go up If AI takes over, we will all need plenty
Libs Posted February 12 Posted February 12 TOST $27 calls 1 week out. Stock is at $26.50. Surprisingly cheap IMO- the calls cost $1.45 Stock is gonna rebound after earnings today.
Spekulatius Posted February 13 Posted February 13 4 hours ago, Libs said: TOST $27 calls 1 week out. Stock is at $26.50. Surprisingly cheap IMO- the calls cost $1.45 Stock is gonna rebound after earnings today. I don’t own it, but it’s a well run business. If you just look at the earnings, you could not tell why many stocks are down by double digits.
moatrep Posted February 13 Posted February 13 (edited) Made a basket of the Tegridy Value biopharma companies. Now the 3 are selling at good prices. Different levels of risk, but they should do well as a whole. Edited February 13 by moatrep
gfp Posted February 13 Posted February 13 18 hours ago, Libs said: TOST $27 calls 1 week out. Stock is at $26.50. Surprisingly cheap IMO- the calls cost $1.45 Stock is gonna rebound after earnings today. You were correct, I bought a little stock (no calls!) after your post and sold it for a $600 gain this morning so I owe you a beer and a shot
Cod Liver Oil Posted February 17 Posted February 17 (edited) Nintendo/Pokemon: $45bn EV $4bn fcf (growing nicely) Stock no go up. Edited February 17 by Cod Liver Oil
rogermunibond Posted February 17 Posted February 17 Nintendo has a pretty good return going back to 2015, if you buy it on the lows every 2-3 years.
Marco Van Basten Posted February 17 Posted February 17 3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said: Nintendo/Pokemon: $45bn EV $4bn fcf (growing nicely) Stock no go up. How do you get to USD 4bn in free cash flow? Thank you.
Spekulatius Posted February 17 Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said: How do you get to USD 4bn in free cash flow? Thank you. I don’t even think the EV is correct. It’s closer to $50B. Nintendo has huge working capital movement elated to their console launch. They build up a lot of inventory year many may be whittling it down. Any FCF larger than adjusted earnings anre always suspect.
Cod Liver Oil Posted February 18 Posted February 18 (edited) @Marco Van Basten I'm getting FCF as: 2021: $5.7bn 2022: $2.5bn 2023: $2.2bn 2024: $3bn 2025: 0 The Switch 2 capex is done. Margins should ramp to the high 30s with NSO, parks, cinema and licensing. I'm thinking $4bn run rate within the next 18 months growing to $6bn by 2030. Just a wet finger in the air but things moving in the right direction, great cultural momentum, 400 million registered accounts, 160 million Switches and growing. The infrastructure is there and the righteous IP will runneth through. Mortals will celebrate. More importantly, I just want to own these 2 companies for the next decade because they are sexcellent. Edited February 18 by Cod Liver Oil
John Hjorth Posted February 18 Posted February 18 I added almost 100 bps [measured on total portfolio] to FFH.TO - Fairfax Fiínancial Holdings Limited, subordinate voting shares, today at TSX opening [my local time at 15:30] at CAD 2,346.23, total position size thereby up by 25 percent, here in taxable accounts. Allocation of liquidity generated by doing basically nothing for quite some time, and letting dividends accumulate. - - - o 0 o - - - For the breadcrumbs laying around several places, I tried to pick up in the afternoon my local time [before 17:00 my local time, before close in Copenhagen] : Danish regional banks : DJUR.CPH, DAB.CPH & FYNBK.CPH. - - - o 0 o - - - Only DJUR.CPH filled : Djurslands Bank A/S, at DKK 1,070.00 for a few shares. - - - o 0 o - - - I hope for better luck tomorrow with DAB.CPH and FYNBK.CPH - maybe tomorrow.
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