What are you buying today?

[Sweet]

15 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thank you for elaborating here, Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

It certainly makes sense to me, personally, doing it so, with almost never cheap high quality companies. The risk of building the position too fast at a wrong price gets reduced materially. But it certainly requires patience to do so. And if one is not overall wrong in the first place abut the company, one gets rewarded abundantly over time, and after some years price paid becomes gradually more and more irrelevant for the investment.

Great post John.

[dipod]

NVO at $44.98 as a short term trade. Thinking of this as being somewhat analogous to CROX at $74 a few days back. Plan to be out around $49 or so.

Edited November 24, 2025 by dipod
Adding more context

[MungerWunger]

small add to SGN.WA last week

[Viking]

On 10/17/2025 at 4:18 PM, Viking said:

I did the same today (bought FFH.TO). I explain my thinking below.
 

I manage my Fairfax investment in two ways:

• Core position
• Flex position

The core position is the (relatively) new part for me. I have held a large core position in Fairfax since late October/early November 2020. At a little over 5 years, this is the longest time period I have ever owned a core position in Fairfax. (It is the longest period of time I have owned a core position in any stock.)

 

Flexing my position size is something I have done with Fairfax on and off for +20 years. I sometimes buy more of the stock when it sells off/gets cheaper. And then I lighten up when the stock moves higher. With my flex position in Fairfax I am looking for a small gain (the exact amount will vary each time and will depend on the set-up). 
 

Normally, I find I get 2 or 3 nice opportunities each year to flex my position in Fairfax. Times when the stock sells off - where I like the short term risk/reward set up. 
 

Why did I ‘flex’ my position higher today?

• Stock closed today at $1,660/share. Three days ago it closed at $1,790/share. Decline was 7.3%.
• It looks to me like the stock has sold off over the past week for reasons that have nothing to do with Fairfax. (I.E. all financials are selling off.)
• Fairfax’s fundamentals continue to improve - I really like the sale of Fairfax’s 80% stake in Eurolife’s life insurance business for $944.7 million (expected to close in Q1-2026). 
• Strong earnings - I expect Fairfax to deliver very good Q3 earnings report. My guess is BV will be comfortably over $1,200/share. This puts the P/BV at about 1.38
• Hidden value - Excess of FV over CV for associate and consolidated holdings is likely $100/share (after tax). That puts ‘adjusted’ P/BV at about 1.28 ($1,660/$1,300)
• Hidden value part 2 - Of course, we know intrinsic value is much higher than ‘adjusted’ BV of $1,300. Let’s be conservative and add another $100/share (Eurolife sale will crystallize a nice investment gain in Q1-2026…). This puts Fairfax’s value (measured conservatively) at $1,400/share. This puts the. P/FV at 1.19   Today. 
• Fairfax thinks its stock price is cheap - Fairfax was an aggressive buyer of its shares in Q2, paying about $1,700/share. 
• Seasonality - As @SafetyinNumbers has pointed out many time before, Fairfax’s share price tends to underperform during hurricane season (which runs until about the end of October). A headwind will end soon.
• All cashed up - As I said earlier, I expect Fairfax to deliver strong Q3 earnings - they will be all cashed up in early November. What will they do? Well, being all cashed up, with shares trading below $1,700 and with hurricane season behind them… why not buy back a bunch of stock to year end? 
• Added motivation - Fairfax still owns 1.76 million shares of FFH-TRS. Every $100 increase in Fairfax’s share price delivers an investment gain of $176 million to Fairfax. This makes buying back stock when it is undervalued (like it is today) an even better decision. 

A near term risk to my ‘flex’ trade: it appears the hard market in P/C insurance is coming to an end. Lots of P/C insurance companies will report in the next 2 weeks. It they disappoint in the top line (revenue) we could see a big sell off in P/C insurance stocks. 
 

Important: I flex my positions in stocks I am happy holding for the long term (with the increased position size). There is always a good chance the stock could get much cheaper from here (especially in the short term). 
 

Anyways, I do not post this as investment advice. My logic could turn out to be completely wrong. Please consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. My post above is intended to be for information/entertainment purposes  

 

To partially close the loop, I exited 1/2 of my flex trade in Fairfax today (described above). The flex part of my position was up about 6% (on average). I started buying (more) Fairfax in mid October (yes, I was early) and continued to add to my position pretty much all the way to its recent the bottom. I did get a little more aggressive than usual with the size of my flex position - and that was because the stock kept selling off (at the same time fundamentals/the story continued to improve). Yes, Mr Market (volatility) can be an investors best friend.

 

Of interest, the stock bottomed out the day earnings were announced (at around $1,550). Today, Fairfax traded as high as $1,740, which is an increase of $190 or 12% in less than 3 weeks. 

 

The key with my flex position is to not be too piggish. It is meant to be a short term trade. So sell it when it hits my return target (which in this case was about 6% or more). That is what I did today (well 1/2 of it). 

 

Bottom line, this trade has been a great way to squeeze a little more juice out of my understanding and investment in Fairfax while also being thoughtful about position size. 

 

Edited November 25, 2025 by Viking

[Paarslaars]

You and Parsad do make a good cases for not being fully invested and just waiting for your quality companies to have dips.  

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, Paarslaars said:

You and Parsad do make a good cases for not being fully invested and just waiting for your quality companies to have dips.  

Or a lot of money gets left on the table.  Trading a 65c  dollar up to  a 70c dollar has limited appeal, but I understand everyone’s situation is different. Guess it depends on one’s view of IV. I  get the margin of safety arguments etc, we are all wired that way.  I just think the historical handicapping of Fairfax at these multiples is just plain wrong. I do bottom ups continuously on the holdings and in turn the  company and end up with numbers far higher than the analysts.  Happy to be proven wrong but ironically it’s not a risk I am willing to take.  Just my 2c.

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 hours ago, nwoodman said:

Or a lot of money gets left on the table.  Trading a 65c  dollar up to  a 70c dollar has limited appeal, but I understand everyone’s situation is different. Guess it depends on one’s view of IV. I  get the margin of safety arguments etc, we are all wired that way.  I just think the historical handicapping of Fairfax at these multiples is just plain wrong. I do bottom ups continuously on the holdings and in turn the  company and end up with numbers far higher than the analysts.  Happy to be proven wrong but ironically it’s not a risk I am willing to take.  Just my 2c.

Also, clearly not believers in historical seasonality . The last 5 years in particular have been strong and this season has started well. I wrote about it a few weeks ago on substack. We could just be getting started.

 

https://open.substack.com/pub/berczyparkcapital/p/fairfax-financial-seasonality-opportunity?r=ecc87&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

 

[Spekulatius]

Adding to $WDAY. Down ~10% on earnings, no idea why. Maybe the beat was too narrow.

 

Anyways, I like it at current price around $210.

[Eng12345]

EEFT, MATR, VG, FFXDF

[nwoodman]

9 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Also, clearly not believers in historical seasonality . The last 5 years in particular have been strong and this season has started well. I wrote about it a few weeks ago on substack. We could just be getting started.

 

https://open.substack.com/pub/berczyparkcapital/p/fairfax-financial-seasonality-opportunity?r=ecc87&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

 

Good point.  I should have clarified the above note.  Using Book +%float, SOTP, DCF etc I get large numbers.  The only time the valuation looks remotely FV is when I use legacy multiples based on stated book (anchoring).  A fully blown soft market would bring valuations in line but a softish market still doesn’t justify the current price, let alone what it was trading at a few weeks ago.  I guess a 30% “conglomerate discount”  get’s you there too. It’s a weird one, but in a good way.

Edited November 26, 2025 by nwoodman

[Cod Liver Oil]

Buying UMG to go with Bollore and Odet. The Vivendi trial will resolve soon.  It's a good asset stuck in that weedy area near Giants stadium. Bodies eventually float to the surface.

Happy Thanksgiving to all the hilarious characters on here!!!!!

Edited November 28, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Junior R]

added FIH at $15.66 to$15.70

[dipod]

Shorted some $47 short term NVO puts yesterday. I like the $44-$47 range for acquiring this issue. When any of their drug apps come through, there will likely be a nice bump. Also seems to do well with the "buy in the mid 40s, sell close to $50" mantra like we've seen with CROX (mid 70s to mid 80s trade) recently.

[Spekulatius]

Finally some meaningful insider buys for $FI Fiserv. Purchases from the GC and the CFO are the most meaningful since they are the most pessimistic people in management, imo.

 

[Saluki]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Finally some meaningful insider buys for $FI Fiserv. Purchases from the GC and the CFO are the most meaningful since they are the most pessimistic people in management, imo.

 

 

I was looking at that yesterday, lol. Nice timing by the guy in legal who sold at $233 and $160 and bought back at $63. Looking at the 13Fs when they came out a couple of weeks ago, I'm surprised at how many "famous" investors owned this, and that a few bought in the quarter right before the price got cut in half. 

 

Might be worth a look again. I see their Clover device around a lot and the Core processing for banks is invisible but important and they are the biggest one out there providing that service for banks and credit unions, so despite the accounting shenanigans, it has a great moat. 

[Spekulatius]

Well I am not famous but I owned some too since late 2020. I sold most on the way up but not all, then added back before the fall (and some more after). I think right now it’s a good value if you have an iron stomach. I think I will flip some for tax loss sales later this year.

Edited December 3, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

Small add to Unidata ($UD.MI) on forecast revision yesterday

Today a starter in BZL insurance
Small add to AJG because I like the stock 

Edited December 3, 2025 by Spekulatius

[hardcorevalue]

CSU/TOI this week

 

Kind of feels like they will never go up again though. Maybe that's a bull sign or just bag holder speak! 

[thowed]

20 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

CSU/TOI this week

 

Kind of feels like they will never go up again though. Maybe that's a bull sign or just bag holder speak! 

 

Ha - I hear you - now I know what it must feel like to be a HODL-er!

 

But they keep doing their thing - TOI made a decent-sized acquisition just recently.  So while they may not have the old premium valuation for a while, I think for us lot holding for 5+ years it should be fine & I have confidence in many of the management to be able to easily hold that long.

[Junior R]

added more bro

[Saluki]

Adding slowly to Copart and Venture Global. A few shares a day. 

[Red Lion]

40 minutes ago, Junior R said:

added more bro

Me too. 

[hardcorevalue]

1 hour ago, thowed said:

 

Ha - I hear you - now I know what it must feel like to be a HODL-er!

 

But they keep doing their thing - TOI made a decent-sized acquisition just recently.  So while they may not have the old premium valuation for a while, I think for us lot holding for 5+ years it should be fine & I have confidence in many of the management to be able to easily hold that long.

Yes it's just funny because I think it's a fantastic risk/reward here but I'd also be the first to say this is probably dead money given AI narrative. 

 

Anyways, I try to just buy when the valuation makes sense more than when I expect the stock to move. I'm agnostic on timing. 

[Eldad]

56 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

Yes it's just funny because I think it's a fantastic risk/reward here but I'd also be the first to say this is probably dead money given AI narrative. 

 

Anyways, I try to just buy when the valuation makes sense more than when I expect the stock to move. I'm agnostic on timing. 

Seeing reports that AI usage is flatlining in the office setting and rumors that MSFT lowered sales quotas for AI. Could happen fairly soon. 
 

Irony is now AI is so big CSU will still go down in the short term when the thesis is disproven LOL. 

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, Eldad said:

Seeing reports that AI usage is flatlining in the office setting and rumors that MSFT lowered sales quotas for AI. Could happen fairly soon. 
 

Irony is now AI is so big CSU will still go down in the short term when the thesis is disproven LOL. 

People are checking out new toys and then they go into the bin. However this neither proves nor disproves the AI thesis as far as cases like CSU is concerned. For a company like CSU it will take years until we see an impact either positive or negative and possibly both to some extend.