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Posted
On 11/17/2025 at 8:34 AM, brobro777 said:

Bought a small position in nasdaq futures for da Christmas rally

 

haha

haha, good luck!!

Posted
6 hours ago, Luke said:

haha, good luck!!

 
 

thanks man, I did way too well going long stock index futures off the tariff sell off bounce in April so if I lose from my NQ position this time around, it's cool man, no problemo

 

 

Posted
On 11/12/2025 at 4:10 PM, Kizion said:

 

What is the rational to buy the rights offering iso common shares? 

Well at this price of $60mm enterprise value, either buying common or participating in the rights offering works fine. 

 

The right provides 2 additional call options through next yr.  With the company poised to do 50mm in revs vs 25mm in 2025, it translates to +8mm in earnings.  Additionally, they guided for 25-30% revenue growth through 2030... Just taking  30% growth for 2027 implies 65mm in revenues and 13mm in earnings which is roughly 60% y/y earnings growth. 

So what is 8mm in earnings growing 60% worth?  Even at a conservative 40PE implies a market cap of 320mm vs 60mm today or 5x.  Even including maximum stock dilution from full execution of the offering (8mm units which is 1 common and 2 options each), to 45mm shares from today's 20mm implies a stock price of $7 in 2026, let alone the value accrued from subsequent growth to 2030. 

1 .Just common @ 3.10 =   $4 profit/share

2. Rights @$4.00         =   $3 profit/share from common

                    $5 option   =  $2 profit/share

                    $6 option   =  $1  profit/share

                    TOTAL           $6/share which is 50% more gain.

 

If you believe management can deliver, the 2 additional rights are well worth it to own prior to revenue ramp....

 

Posted (edited)
On 11/10/2025 at 10:25 AM, Jaygo said:

same. would look at 82 to exit again

 

800 at 75.25

 

sold the 800 crox at 81.40 look to get back in around 77. I am terrified that i'll wake up one day and it will be sold and shoot to my expected 110 after i have sold for a trade. 

 

I am keeping another 800 as a consistent hold so if it shoots up at a time ive traded out I wont have to chuck myself off the roof 

 

From trading I have gone from a cost basis of $81 initial buy on 662 shares to the current 800 so the trading have been working really well so 20% gain in a flat stock

Edited by Jaygo
Posted (edited)

Very nice, Jaygo. I've also sold 50% or so of the calls I bought. I bought most sub 74-75 but also some in the 76-77 range. Third trip at 30-60% gains each time so I can't complain. Like you, I also keep holding a few longer term ones in case it really moves upwards but since the market has done it's thing, I'm happy to invest the profits in common shares of some fallen companies and repeat. Yes, it sucks when you lose 2-3k in gains a couple of times in a row because you didn't sell all, but that's the name of the game, especially when you put your hands so close to the fire with derivatives! 

Edited by Valuebo
Posted (edited)

Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

Diden't you not that long ago initiate a small position in l'Oreal [OR.PA]? Or am I wrong here, not remembering correctly here? - I've been looking around to find your post about it, but so far to no avail.

 

Am I right about that, or wrong? In case I'm right, what is your stomach feeling about that posisition by now?

 

Meaning :

  • 'I want to buy more!" 😋, or
  • 'I will stop here, for now, to observe what's going on, but still invested and interested', or
  • 'It does not feel right, so I'll likely dispose of the thingy again, some time soon' ?

 

- Perhaps you're feeling something else?

 

Thank you in advance.

Edited by John Hjorth
Posted
8 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

Diden't you not that long ago initiate a small position in l'Oreal [OR.PA]? Or am I wrong here, not remembering correctly here? - I've been looking around to find your post about it, but so far to no avail.

 

Am I right about that, or wrong? In case I'm right, what is your stomach feeling about that posisition by now?

 

Meaning :

  • 'I want to buy more!" 😋, or
  • 'I will stop here, for now, to observe what's going on, but still invested and interested', or
  • 'It does not feel right, so I'll likely dispose of the thingy again, some time soon' ?

 

- Perhaps you're feeling something else?

 

Thank you in advance.

I posted it here.

 

Usually I build a position over years, sometimes with a more fast approach in the beginning. With L'Oréal I would wait for the next report and see if I like it. And so on and so on and so on...

 

Unfortunately I find it much easier mentally to buy into falling prices than rising ones. So let's assume the price falls below €300, I would probably consider buying more even before the next quarterly results are released.

Posted (edited)
On 11/23/2025 at 8:18 AM, EgonKuhn said:

I posted it here.

 

Usually I build a position over years, sometimes with a more fast approach in the beginning. With L'Oréal I would wait for the next report and see if I like it. And so on and so on and so on...

 

Unfortunately I find it much easier mentally to buy into falling prices than rising ones. So let's assume the price falls below €300, I would probably consider buying more even before the next quarterly results are released.

 

Thank you for elaborating here, Egon [ @EgonKuhn ],

 

It certainly makes sense to me, personally, doing it so, with almost never cheap high quality companies. The risk of building the position too fast at a wrong price gets reduced materially. But it certainly requires patience to do so. And if one is not overall wrong in the first place about the company, one gets rewarded abundantly over time, and after some years price paid becomes gradually more and more irrelevant for the investment.

Edited by John Hjorth

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