EgonKuhn

Thank you very much @rajpgokul ! My *main* concern after looking at the raw numbers since 1999 is the quality of their current loan book. Good to hear that they cleaned it up. They are a bit overcapitalized now, debt level, deposit to loan ratio, current NPL trends and efficiency ratio all look well. So not much concerns here.

So essentially the same strategy as in the early days, taking over (let’s put it diplomatically ) "insurers with room for improvement" in order to get them on track? Just adapted for banks in this case? They really don't like low hurdles. Were they able to get at least a brief look at the current loan book before submitting their offer? To be honest, I am a bit concerned that they are repeating the non-performing loan episodes of the past here.

When I look at the raw USD figures for IDBI Bank on TIKR, I find it a bit hard to understand the enthusiasm surrounding a potential takeover. Even if one generously overlooks the fact that the bank had some serious issues a few years ago due to non performing loans (after having the same problems in 2001-2003, so it seems recurring), its book value per share has shrunk to a third of what it was twenty years ago. Earnings per share are currently around half of what they were two decades ago. There is not even growth to speak of, adjusted for inflation the volume of loans currently being issued is barely higher than it was twenty years ago. If we assume for a moment that the Indian stock market were open to foreign investors, IDBI would not be an obvious buy for me personally, neither in terms of operational performance nor current valuation levels. What am I missing here?

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From my European perspective, you can be rightly proud of what you have achieved in such a historically short span of time, and you can face the future with confidence and optimism. Whenever I have visited the USA or otherwise interacted with Americans, I have been particularly impressed by the willingness to tackle issues head-on. You may not always succeed right away, but ultimately you fight your way through. Driven by the courage, the dynamic spirit, and the mindset of the settlers from your founding days. To create a better future for yourself, your loved ones and the generations after you. Celebrate today, you have every reason to! Happy 4th of July

Yeah. That is the main problem. And what astonishes and holds me back is that they are doing next to nothing about it. Instead of acknowledging that the era of negative interest rates might be over, they are simply turning a blind eye. There seems to be little will to tackle this or other issues decisively. Instead they just muddle through somehow. A bit like all of Europe, unfortunately. We Germans love our sausage. As in any love relationship, it is sometimes helpful for the peace of mind to consciously avoid looking too closely It’s an interesting idea to use the NBIM as a sort of rough filter. Given the public profile involved, they ought to have a certain incentive to pay attention to the downside risk in their positions.

Sold my URW.PA (Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE) and GPW.WA (Gielda Papierów Wartosciowych w Warszawie S.A. - the stock exchange provider in Poland) positions

It's often better to not know so well, how the sausage is made

I see. Of course I could stare at the endless rows of figures in TIKR for ages and still be none the wiser in the end If I understand you correctly, your impression from three years ago has been confirmed, and you’ve stuck with the investment vehicles of Paulsson and Lundberg, or perhaps even added to your holdings from time to time? Here in Germany my impression of REITs and REICs is that, while they somehow muddle through, they are ultimately treading water operationally. They are running, yet practically getting nowhere. Like a hamster on a wheel.

Changing gears to the right thread here. I guess "K-Fastigheter" is something else than "Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB", so "Wihlborgs Fastigheter AB" isn't there in this graphic? The working hypothesis for all these Northern European and ultimately virtually all European REITs/REICs seems to be that Europe will never return to a growth trajectory again and that interest rate levels will therefore remain relatively low forever. One can certainly take that view, but I would feel somewhat more at ease if they were reducing their debt levels much more aggressively. Yet I don't see that happening anywhere neither with Germany’s Vonovia for instance nor with the Swedish companies. Whatever additional rental income comes in is swallowed up by steadily rising interest expenses. Consequently they are essentially treading water when you look at FFO trends over the last few years. Have you ever come across an example of a European RE play significantly deleveraging currently, moving toward a Debt/EBITDA ratio of for instance 5, like the major US multifamily REITs?

Thanks for your perspective here! I have some of these Nordic RE plays in my watch list but never pulled the trigger because of their indebtedness after so many years of extremely low interest rates in Europe.

I took a look at them on TIKR and was a bit alarmed to see that they actually even more debt now than during the last downturn in 2022. Doesn't that worry you a bit? As long as interest rates in Europe remain relatively low, everything will likely be fine. But if we ever see a period of higher interest rates again, there won't be much left over for dividends.

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New starter position in HONA (Honeywell Aerospace spin off)

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New starter positions in CME, MKTX and TW

Thanks @petec. Perhaps I’m a bit hypersensitive due to past experiences. Without knowing the finer details, a 50% discount to book value doesn't seem all that far-fetched given the performance over the last decade. It’s all the better, that you’re shedding some light on this. A peer comparison would indeed be a major undertaking. I took a look at South Africa a few years back, and Bidvest stood out to me as a company that "at least knows a bit about what it's doing", of course they are also at the mercy of major (macroeconomic) trends. Unfortunately I ended up trusting Fairfax’s expertise more than my own gut feeling in the March 2020 drawdown.

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Many thanks for this very detailed article @petec! Unfortunately I bought in here at the end of March 2020, and been watching the disaster unfold ever since, using it as a lesson in humility regarding my own modest abilities. Just to clarify a detail from your article: Helios (the asset manager) posts an annual loss of around USD 8 million, yet was carried on the books at a valuation of USD 104 million at the end of 2025? Is that a correct summary? Honestly that makes me worry about the potential gap between valuation and reality for the other assets... It would have been interesting to see a peer comparison included in your article, for instance with "The Bidvest Group Limited" (BVT.ZA). While buying into that stock during the COVID lows would also have been a mistake, it at least held up reasonably well and paid out some dividends since then.

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