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Posted
5 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

I bought some BSM in tax free accounts in the last week.

 

beware of UBTI. 

 

you can own DMLP in a tax free account as its designed to not generate, but I think BSM generates UBTI...

Posted
21 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

beware of UBTI. 

 

you can own DMLP in a tax free account as its designed to not generate, but I think BSM generates UBTI...

 

hmmm...it looks like UBIT has actually been negative for last 3 tax years...just looked up my last 3 K-1's as a reference...not tax advice but maybe drag will be minimal. 

 

 

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Posted

More $Crox and more Crocs.

 

I generally try to avoid fashion, but this has quickly turned into a very meaningful position for me. It's just too cheap and unique. Scuttlebutt is also so easy with this one.

Posted
22 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

I generally try to avoid fashion, but this has quickly turned into a very meaningful position for me. It's just too cheap and unique. Scuttlebutt is also so easy with this one.

 

How meaningful are we talking, here? I am at 2% but I am a little worried at throwing too much behind a fashion brand.

 

Even if they do everything right today: shut down Dudes, spend all FCF on buybacks...in 18 months things can change very quickly in the fashion world. Demand can drop off a cliff...curious how you think about that in relation to your position sizing. 

 

I've also sold OTM LEAPs against the part of the position (2027, $120-130 strike) to buffer some of the exposure.

Posted
4 hours ago, LC said:

 

How meaningful are we talking, here? I am at 2% but I am a little worried at throwing too much behind a fashion brand.

 

Even if they do everything right today: shut down Dudes, spend all FCF on buybacks...in 18 months things can change very quickly in the fashion world. Demand can drop off a cliff...curious how you think about that in relation to your position sizing. 

 

I've also sold OTM LEAPs against the part of the position (2027, $120-130 strike) to buffer some of the exposure.

 

Almost 7%, and willing to take it to ~10%. Maybe I'm being a bit dramatic, but for fashion I feel like 5%+ is a large position.

 

Anyways, look at Sketchers. Apply the same EV/EBITDA and CROX (much stronger brand) is almost a double. Regardless, 20% FCF yield and 25% in buyback auth is a good combo. It's such a simple thesis.

 

In terms of demand dropping off a cliff and position sizing...well I've spent a decent amount of time talking to IR, employees, youth, and parents. I feel good about demand. And look at the collabs (NFL, etc). Look at the growth in Asia. I'm not an expert when it comes to Fashion, but I've built some conviction.

 

For this to work I don't need much. I feel like the downside (50% drawdown) and the upside (2-3x) is extremely skewed in terms of probability. I don't have much sophistication when it comes to drawdown vs. position sizing...but I don't think this is worth complicating. 

 

Posted
4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

BOL ( Bollore),  Exor LSEG (London stock exchange) and FDS.

 

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

BOL ( Bollore),  Exor LSEG (London stock exchange) and FDS.

been thinking about the exchanges as well, like CME.  With volatility down, might be a good time to pick them up.  Any reason for LSEG?

Posted
8 hours ago, buylowersellhigh said:

 

been thinking about the exchanges as well, like CME.  With volatility down, might be a good time to pick them up.  Any reason for LSEG?

The valuation looks attractive. I do think that LSEG is down in sympathy with data providers since that’s a large part of their business.

Posted
10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The valuation looks attractive. I do think that LSEG is down in sympathy with data providers since that’s a large part of their business.

Agree.

Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Adding to Bollore and Exor as special situation/slow motion arbitrage.  Both retiring stock at big discounts to NAV

 

That said here, @Cod Liver Oil Thursday introduced in the Exor topic in the Investment Ideas forum Thursday the concept of a 'compost pile' 😋😛 [ link : here].

 

It's just great! I'm still laughing! 😂🎖️🏅😎

Edited by John Hjorth

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