rogermunibond Posted January 9 Posted January 9 10 minutes ago, Dinar said: Carter was horrible, however he did one thing right - deregulated railroads and airline industry, Carter appointed Paul Volcker. Enuff said.
Gregmal Posted January 9 Posted January 9 11 minutes ago, rkbabang said: Carter wasn't the best president, but he gets a worst rap than he deserves. Nixon was without a doubt the worst president of my lifetime with his price controls and untying the dollar completely from gold he has caused more long term damage to the country than anyone since FDR or Wilson earlier in the 20th century. Look at every economically relevant chart and everything takes a turn for the worse in 1971. Yea it seems pretty clear untying gold from the currency is what caused the rerating of the dollar for the next decade. Nevertheless it created generations of academics who now study and claim to be “inflation” experts. It’s why everyone missed the obviousness of supply chains being the route of covid inflation. Force anything to have a long term tied at the hip relationship, and then set it free, crazy shit will happen.
DooDiligence Posted January 9 Posted January 9 (edited) Yeah, what a horrible prick. Why would anyone in their right mind want to serve with honor in the US military and stay married to the same woman for their entire lives. The douchebag actually built houses for a bunch of losers after he left office. Not only that but he wasted a bunch of time and resources flying around to 3rd world shitholes mediating conflicts. If I'd been elected and handed an economy like he did, plus the Iran hostage situation, and I'd been a bit of a prig and refused to work with other politicians out of some misguided sense of morality, I think I would've just gone around and fucked a bunch of ho bags and porn stars and lived the life after leaving office, in an attempt to compensate for the shortcomings of my administration. Almost forgot, the guy actually had the gall to try and run a successful farm in the 20th century? What a fucking loser. Dude was a gaping asshole. edit: Forgot about Volker. Another gigantic asshole. What was he thinking? Political careers could have been destroyed with his reckless behavior. What a dick. Edited January 9 by DooDiligence
Paarslaars Posted January 9 Posted January 9 Anyone looking into housing builders for the L.A. region?
Gregmal Posted January 9 Posted January 9 1 hour ago, Paarslaars said: Anyone looking into housing builders for the L.A. region? It’s actually funny how NOW they care about how badly the elected officials they voted for fucked things up…saving the smelt >>>A list inconvenience! Texas, Georgia, Florida, get ready for another wave of migrants!
Paarslaars Posted January 9 Posted January 9 You get what you vote for... I'm sure the movie stars will start some fundraisers soon.
Spekulatius Posted January 10 Posted January 10 10 hours ago, Dinar said: Carter was horrible, however he did one thing right - deregulated railroads and airline industry, He actually deregulated more than that - he deregulated the trucking industry as well and ai think the deregulated of the telecom industry started under his administration too. Camp David (peace between Egypt and Israel) was a huge success, I don’t think he was the worst president but one of the most unlucky ones. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the fall of the Sha regime happened under his watch and hardliners called for US intervention. However history Sowjets that he was probably correct not to intervene.
Gregmal Posted January 10 Posted January 10 20 hours ago, Paarslaars said: You get what you vote for... I'm sure the movie stars will start some fundraisers soon. Yea I think it’s hyperbole blaming the figureheads directly, but it’s a fundamental issue. You waste all this money on these useless virtue signal causes, and do it at the expense of existing infrastructure. Florida is meticulous about controlled burns and fire management training. Why is ANY state, still not actively working on updating their lines to buried/below ground? Cutting trees and maintaining brush is not hard. It creates jobs. Trump is of course being somewhat disingenuous with the water claims, but he’s not wrong. How many of these do you have to have before a real plan is formed? It all comes down to priorities and those are established by what people will vote for and what politicians can get away with.
Saluki Posted January 10 Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Yea I think it’s hyperbole blaming the figureheads directly, but it’s a fundamental issue. You waste all this money on these useless virtue signal causes, and do it at the expense of existing infrastructure. Florida is meticulous about controlled burns and fire management training. Why is ANY state, still not actively working on updating their lines to buried/below ground? Cutting trees and maintaining brush is not hard. It creates jobs. Trump is of course being somewhat disingenuous with the water claims, but he’s not wrong. How many of these do you have to have before a real plan is formed? It all comes down to priorities and those are established by what people will vote for and what politicians can get away with. I don't know if the species of trees has an effect because on west coast those trees in the Pacific Northwest are much taller than the ones on the East coast (don't know about L.A.). But one big difference I notice that not a lot people talk about is that most of the timberland in the East is privately owned (JOE used to own quite a bit until they sold it to the Mormon church) and most of the stuff west of the Mississippi is government owned, mostly federal. So I don't think all the blame goes to California. A lot of it is stupid policies that have nothing to do with fish/water. At some point the forestry service used to put out every fire they could, but that just let the tinderbox grow bigger and bigger and eventually you got huge fires that were not controllable. Cutting down all the trees is bad, but cutting down some and replacing them with younger smaller trees, and doing that at the next parcel and the next, and then going back to the original parcel to start over, is what a responsible timber company would do. But if you are a timber company who is only paying to cut trees on someone elses land, why would you be responsible? And if you are a bureaucrat getting a bi-weekly salary in an office a thousand miles away, what incentive, or even knowledge would you have to make the right decisions about this acreage. Your political science degree from the University of Connecticut didn't ever tell you anything you need to know about the Santa Ana winds.
Jaygo Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Buying some BRK. Not much but just recouping what was sold a bit higher. If Warren knew that Berky was my trading sardine i'd be real embarrassed but its literally perfect for trading. Great company that i'm happy to own if I'm down, no dividends to think about, and it fluctuates by 20% a year almost like a clock. Sold 97 at 466.10 and just bought 102 at 442.8
gfp Posted January 10 Posted January 10 I have had a bunch of limit buy orders for Chubb down here around $250/share and the first one just executed at $253.07. With all the LA wildfire headlines I wouldn't be surprised to see all of them executed.
Longnose Posted January 10 Posted January 10 56 minutes ago, Dinar said: STZ - constellation brands after a 10% move down Do you have a price target on them. They've been nothing but down for quite a while. But beer isnt going away. What caused todays swing do you know?
Saluki Posted January 10 Posted January 10 Back on topic, I am dipping my toes into options and I sold 3 puts on Coupang at $20. If it stays here or goes up, free money, and if I get exercised and have to buy more at $17.50 I would be very surprised and probably pretty happy. Unless it's exercised because there is a war with North Korea, which I think is unlikely, but then again a coup in South Korea is not something I had thought was a risk in my original thesis for this. Should I update my Nintendo thesis for "coup risk" too? Bought a few shares of ALCO as a placeholder while I study it. I still think JOE is better long term idea, but if ALCO can sell off most of their valuable stuff by 2027 or so, it looks like a liquidation and you get your money back sooner. Added a little FRPH and ATEX on the dip to maintain the prior weighting in my portfolio.
Gregmal Posted January 10 Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, Saluki said: I don't know if the species of trees has an effect because on west coast those trees in the Pacific Northwest are much taller than the ones on the East coast (don't know about L.A.). But one big difference I notice that not a lot people talk about is that most of the timberland in the East is privately owned (JOE used to own quite a bit until they sold it to the Mormon church) and most of the stuff west of the Mississippi is government owned, mostly federal. So I don't think all the blame goes to California. A lot of it is stupid policies that have nothing to do with fish/water. At some point the forestry service used to put out every fire they could, but that just let the tinderbox grow bigger and bigger and eventually you got huge fires that were not controllable. Cutting down all the trees is bad, but cutting down some and replacing them with younger smaller trees, and doing that at the next parcel and the next, and then going back to the original parcel to start over, is what a responsible timber company would do. But if you are a timber company who is only paying to cut trees on someone elses land, why would you be responsible? And if you are a bureaucrat getting a bi-weekly salary in an office a thousand miles away, what incentive, or even knowledge would you have to make the right decisions about this acreage. Your political science degree from the University of Connecticut didn't ever tell you anything you need to know about the Santa Ana winds. It’s not always simple, but it’s amusing now seeing the rage from A listers about homeless camps, drug addicts, and eco friendly programs getting the money instead of it going to wildfire management programs…it’s like hey YOU voted for this, you promoted these guys, you probably even had something to do with fundraisers for them, and now you don’t like their policies? Highlights the whole “dumb actor” stereotype and how it may not be just a stereotype.
DooDiligence Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) Hypocrisy applies to all humans and especially those living in an entitled society. Over the decades, I've heard a lot of people criticize actors and entertainers for being vocal / politically active, and yet those same individuals will turn out and (edit for emphasis: fanatically) vote actors and entertainers into office. It's like a feedback loop of hypocrisy. Edited January 10 by DooDiligence
EBITDAg Posted January 10 Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, Longnose said: Do you have a price target on them. They've been nothing but down for quite a while. But beer isnt going away. What caused today’s swing do you know? Missed slightly and lowered revenue forecast. Seems a bit extreme to send it down this much.
Cod Liver Oil Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) I bought some PDD in honor of @Luke. The alleged growth and alleged balance sheet offset some of the China risk but none of the nausea. Edited January 10 by Cod Liver Oil
Malmqky Posted January 10 Posted January 10 (edited) Bought some more PM. Thinking about moving some more cash into FRPH aka my favorite store of value w/ upside. Thinking about JOE and how to take advantage of the current price with respect to my large position size. Considering dipping my toes in SSD as well. @Luke capitulating on China and the recent Tencent selloff also has me considering where we are in terms of sentiment for China and if I should increase Prosus:Tencent exposure. Edited January 10 by Malmqky
gfp Posted January 10 Posted January 10 nibble nibble nibble - looking forward to my fifteen dollars!
Paarslaars Posted January 10 Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said: I bought some PDD in honor of @Luke. The alleged growth and alleged balance sheet offset some of the China risk but none of the nausea. Also bought some (leaps).
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