What are you buying today?

[aceskc]

31 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

impressive! jk jk

thx for catching the typo.

[lnofeisone]

2 hours ago, buylowersellhigh said:

 

what makes CACI so much better than a BAH or SAIC?

 

BAH is very good at competing in the lowest cost technically acceptable (LPTA) types of contracts. CACI has made efforts to invest into its capabilities (agile software factory) so they can show a bit of innovation at competitive costs. 

 

I personally would stay away from these names for the next few months. There is a massive shift to push work to small businesses and the entire gov't contracting sector is realigning right now. You can see it by looking at which vehicles are being used for procurements. All the biggies are now hitting up small businesses to build up a rolodex. CACI is no exception. 

[villainx]

On 11/15/2024 at 6:21 PM, sleepydragon said:

i sold it at $12, now it’s cheaper. This thing can be a multi bagger when they finally start selling it

 

Thanks.  I still have a little bit but hadn't followed super closely.  Might get back in again.  Dec decision could be short term catalyst, but if it's not what shareholders want, it could only be a brief setback until May?  There is some margin of safety at this level.

[petec]

On 11/15/2024 at 11:12 AM, StevieV said:

 

Leading LatAm alt manager trading at a good price (about 14x 2024 earnings measured in DE).  I think they'll grow decently on a per-share basis. Scale matters for alts and so I like their scale in the region.

 

I have had success with the US alts - APO/ARES/KKR/BX/OWL.  However, they have all run up a lot.  PAX remains apparently cheap.  In general, I like that PAX (and various alts) can grow while paying out a substantial percentage of their earnings.

 

I think the big uncertainty for both me and the market is the Latam component.  I expect that's why it hasn't run up with the US alts.  The company claims a majority of AUM in hard currencies, but I don't think that eliminates all of the regional concerns.

 

I have a very small position.

 

I also have this. I ran a Latam fund for a decade so have some comfort with the region, ant they explained the opportunity well in their 2023 investor day (might have been 2022 actually).

[Spekulatius]

On 11/15/2024 at 6:12 AM, StevieV said:

 

Leading LatAm alt manager trading at a good price (about 14x 2024 earnings measured in DE).  I think they'll grow decently on a per-share basis. Scale matters for alts and so I like their scale in the region.

 

I have had success with the US alts - APO/ARES/KKR/BX/OWL.  However, they have all run up a lot.  PAX remains apparently cheap.  In general, I like that PAX (and various alts) can grow while paying out a substantial percentage of their earnings.

 

I think the big uncertainty for both me and the market is the Latam component.  I expect that's why it hasn't run up with the US alts.  The company claims a majority of AUM in hard currencies, but I don't think that eliminates all of the regional concerns.

 

I have a very small position.

Thank you for sharing. Looks attractive to me after my very cursory review. I actually like LatAm here, the market is very depressed and valuations accordingly are low. I will look into this one more.

Edited November 18 by Spekulatius

[dealraker]

3 hours ago, petec said:

 

I also have this. I ran a Latam fund for a decade so have some comfort with the region, ant they explained the opportunity well in their 2023 investor day (might have been 2022 actually).

I have bought PAX now 5 times, each successive buy at a lower price.  LOL, stopped buying on the uptick now and carrying a small loss.  

 

But my kind of situation.  Unrelated in business but related in stock price movement, I did the same with CWK recently and have a 50% gain in that stock after carrying a loss for a while.

 

To add...PAX is a complete unknown of course to those like me.  I spent quite the time reading their stuff and from that experience I simply considered it a decent probability.  Small investment, but my experience with these type outlays is to be honest sort of crazy good.  Buy and take a chill pill.

 

The balance sheet...?   Have fun with that one.

Edited November 18 by dealraker

[Junior R]

@StevieV @dealraker @Spekulatius does look good here do we think $1.50 EPS for 2025 is reasonable?  That is the estimate which is about 40% growth for 2025

[John Hjorth]

Small starter position in JOE [finally].

[Cod Liver Oil]

Cautiously buying some Nike <75. Hopefully Trump will not cut off his nose as he shakes down Xi with tariffs. Might suffer from premature accumulation here but I’m pretty sure it’s worth more than 2 times sales.

Edited November 18 by Cod Liver Oil

[ourkid8]

53 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Small starter position in JOE [finally].

 

Welcome to the party!

[John Hjorth]

13 minutes ago, ourkid8 said:

Welcome to the party!

 

Thank you, @ourkid8 !

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

[Just mentioned your response to the Lady of the House, her reaction : 'My god, you're all soo dumb!' ]

Edited November 18 by John Hjorth

[UK]

18 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

her reaction : 'My god, you're all soo dumb!' ]

[John Hjorth]

58 minutes ago, UK said:

 

@UK,

 

Everything is about attitude! - Especially by now for us European CoBF members, who - finally and suddenly - find our selves in deep sh*t, after cashing in 'the peace dividend' for now two decades+!

[Junior R]

just listened to PAX quarterly call and I am ready to buy this stock lol will be any day now...If they can hit the estimates this should be easy 50% to 100% gain 

Edited November 18 by Junior R

[valueseek]

I have followed PAX (and VINP) intermittently from the time they have been public. Results have been choppy in the last couple of years as FRE and DE has had several misses to cons. in the past. Plus the poor Latam sentiment has not helped. They are not as seasoned on expenses, managing earnings as the US peers but the valuation is so discounted vs. the US peers that slight positive execution and sentiment shift should work.

[StevieV]

2 hours ago, valueseek said:

I have followed PAX (and VINP) intermittently from the time they have been public. Results have been choppy in the last couple of years as FRE and DE has had several misses to cons. in the past. Plus the poor Latam sentiment has not helped. They are not as seasoned on expenses, managing earnings as the US peers but the valuation is so discounted vs. the US peers that slight positive execution and sentiment shift should work.

 

Thanks.  Do you prefer one of the two - PAX or VINP?

 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, valueseek said:

I have followed PAX (and VINP) intermittently from the time they have been public. Results have been choppy in the last couple of years as FRE and DE has had several misses to cons. in the past. Plus the poor Latam sentiment has not helped. They are not as seasoned on expenses, managing earnings as the US peers but the valuation is so discounted vs. the US peers that slight positive execution and sentiment shift should work.

Yes, personal expenses are rising much faster than revenues it seems. Also, they had Zero incentive fees this year so far. To make the $1.5/ share earnings target, they need to generate  some incentive fees.

 

I think it’s a worthwhile but there are some question marks. An improving economic situation in Latam would not hurt either.

[infectted]

SGRP - SPAR Group. Takeover offer of $2.50 by Highwire Capital. At current px of $2.13 = 17% spread.

SGRP in its most recent 10Q reiterated their expectation of deal closing by year end (Outside date for the deal is 30 May 2025).

Approved by shareholders. Highwire Capital confirmed financing earlier this month.

Over the last week, SGRP has traded down but I'm unable to find any news that might have been the reason for this. Does anyone with more experience in merger arb situations have a few on this matter?

Potential Issues

• Acquirer doesn't have a track record, new company.
• 1 Director has been constantly selling shares since the announcement - However he also has been constantly paring down his position since the end of last year
• Delay in closing - However even using the outside date, the annualized return will still be close to 30%.

 

Does anyone have any insights into what I might be missing? Thanks

[valueseek]

4 hours ago, StevieV said:

 

Thanks.  Do you prefer one of the two - PAX or VINP?

 

Tks - I prefer PAX primarily because of higher alt. (PE exposure and history, lower P/DEPS or P/FRE multiple). When they came public in 2021 or so, PAX was the more exposed alt. company (if I remember correctly more than 80% alt. - PE+infra). That has impacted them as the higher proportion of performance based earnings impacted EPS being consistently revised down. With the merger this year VINP is above PAX in terms of overall AUM and the alt. AUM. Curr. contribution to distributable earnings from perf. earnings are around 20-25% for PAX and around 10% for VINP, making VINP earnings more stable in general. Overall, not a lot to choose between the two but my pref. is primarily because of the valuation. 

[Malmqky]

MSGE

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Malmqky said:

MSGE

 

me too! adding more.

[Saluki]

Picked up a few shares of PETS and CPNG. 

 

PETS had a 35% pop after earnings, probably because of short covering, and is back down to where it was before the pop. 

 

I have a medium size position in CPNG and I nibbling a little on the dips to take it to 4 or 5% (plus some LEAPs). 

 

 

[Lance]

Writing puts on M

 

Thanks

Lance

[Gregmal]

Added some to AOS. 

[dealraker]

6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Added some to AOS. 

Just plumbed/wired up one (water heater) in my basement.   Could have gone back to gas but I'd have to hire someone.  So I just went to Lowe's and had it working within an hour.  The old, the 2nd generation in this house, is on the way to the dump later today.