What are you buying today?

[BG2008]

20 minutes ago, WFF said:

I need to take a look at this again, I was frustrated last time as it is so illiquid.  But I am guessing you are the one that just push this into the 3 handle?   

 

I bought a few shares, but I am not the one that pushes it into the $30s, my buy is in the $29.70 range. 

[tnathan]

I've decided to make a collection of the non Medicaid health insurers 15-20% of my portfolio. Major risk of (a) change in government policy, (b) utilization / loss rates being materially higher than estimates over more than a few years (c) some other major competitive change in the value chain I think are extremely low - with (a) being far lower now than maybe a few years ago with both parties showing no interest in changing the status quo. I think buying as a basket gets you a pretty easy 10%+ per year especially with a few of the MA players (CVS, Humana) now trading at value prices. If multiples ever go up from ~10-12 EV/EBITDA that's a kicker

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, tnathan said:

I've decided to make a collection of the non Medicaid health insurers 15-20% of my portfolio. Major risk of (a) change in government policy, (b) utilization / loss rates being materially higher than estimates over more than a few years (c) some other major competitive change in the value chain I think are extremely low - with (a) being far lower now than maybe a few years ago with both parties showing no interest in changing the status quo. I think buying as a basket gets you a pretty easy 10%+ per year especially with a few of the MA players (CVS, Humana) now trading at value prices. If multiples ever go up from ~10-12 EV/EBITDA that's a kicker

I like ELV the most. It’s basically a poor man’s version of UNH whith a pretty good execution and a more palpable valuation. Bought my shares in 2020 and then more in 2023. I am also a HUM bag holder but that has now become a multi year turnaround and perhaps takeover story.

 

I also own some CNC and bought and sold that one a couple of times before, all with profits.

Edited October 4 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

20 hours ago, tnathan said:

I've decided to make a collection of the non Medicaid health insurers 15-20% of my portfolio. Major risk of (a) change in government policy, (b) utilization / loss rates being materially higher than estimates over more than a few years (c) some other major competitive change in the value chain I think are extremely low - with (a) being far lower now than maybe a few years ago with both parties showing no interest in changing the status quo. I think buying as a basket gets you a pretty easy 10%+ per year especially with a few of the MA players (CVS, Humana) now trading at value prices. If multiples ever go up from ~10-12 EV/EBITDA that's a kicker

I think you'll do just fine with this portfolio and a lot of your tailwind rationale holds. Just keep in mind that a lot of these MA companies are deeply intertwined with other businesses that can be a drag even if your thesis on MA proves correct.   The press and government seem determined to villify PBM's which could impact both CVS and UNH

[tnathan]

6 hours ago, dwy000 said:

I think you'll do just fine with this portfolio and a lot of your tailwind rationale holds. Just keep in mind that a lot of these MA companies are deeply intertwined with other businesses that can be a drag even if your thesis on MA proves correct.   The press and government seem determined to villify PBM's which could impact both CVS and UNH

Agreed but barring a forced breakup of the companies I think the risks are limited. Everyone hates healthcare but we don't actually have the political will to change how its working in substantial ways

[no_free_lunch]

On 10/4/2024 at 10:23 AM, BG2008 said:

 

I bought a few shares, but I am not the one that pushes it into the $30s, my buy is in the $29.70 range. 

Sorry about this. It was me.  I'm moving the market lol. 

[weighingmachine]

FFBB

[Dinar]

Bought Jan 2027 60 UAL calls yesterday

[CorpRaider]

MODG

[mananainvesting]

Buying $HTLD. Anyone following this company? CEO and his trust are buying lots of shares in the open market. Below is my thesis. Not advise.

[fareastwarriors]

small add to $AIV

[mananainvesting]

More $HTLD

[Saluki]

Picked up a few shares of NTDOY and put a limit order in for some more if it goes below $13.  

[BG2008]

16 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

small add to $AIV

 

Instead buying when there is blood on the street, it's buying when there is a hurricane barreling down Florida 

[Malmqky]

some more frph cuz I'd rather own that than cash, a smidge of google.

Edited October 9 by Malmqky

[frommi]

BP,TAP,SHEL,OZK,CPH:STG,STO:EVO. Sold most of my REIT's for that except Sila and NXRT.

Edited October 9 by frommi

[villainx]

I have been purchasing CLIR, Clearsign Technology.  They make low NOx burners for energy/chemical industrials, nominally turning an expensive post burn cleaning process to a pre burn process.  I bought it long ago relying on adoption of strict emission standards on national and state level, but before there was a market ready product, price of thinking I was a genius.  But I have been adding as price dropped, and currently.

 

Main difference is that there is more proof of concept as CLIR has been booking sales.  Plus where they figured they mainly be in refinery burners, there's been sales in horizontal markets, like recent press releases in chemical and power generation burners, and in Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, versus chiefly in California.  Additionally, they claim and verified, that their burners can achieve similar results with emerging use of hydrogen as fuel.  With the current sales, they are still a bit from breakeven, but seem to be suggesting it will be close.  

 

Anyway, just wanted to share and also welcome any pushback.

Edited October 9 by villainx

[Ross812]

Added back to HQI yesterday at $12.90 after selling a bit in the $14s. Also bought a big slug of ULTA today as a starter. 

[Dinar]

Bought CP today and made it a 5% position.  

[rogermunibond]

@Dinar i was just looking at CP. CNI, and UNP

 

Did you choose CP for the Mexico play?

[Dinar]

31 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

@Dinar i was just looking at CP. CNI, and UNP

 

Did you choose CP for the Mexico play?

Yes.  They have the best network in NA and the best management team.

[fareastwarriors]

6 hours ago, BG2008 said:

 

Instead buying when there is blood on the street, it's buying when there is a hurricane barreling down Florida 

 

hah I had some limit orders floating around mid $8 and lower. 

 

The lack of news for the Brickell Assemblage is a bit worrying though.

 

Any insight @BG2008?

[buylowersellhigh]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

Yes.  They have the best network in NA and the best management team.

Why now? Is it valuation? Merger going thru…

[Dinar]

Just now, buylowersellhigh said:

Why now? Is it valuation? Merger going thru…

No particular reason.  Assuming the company delivers on its targets, it is an 8% free cash flow yield to the equity on say 2029 numbers.  That's cheap for a business with this kind of pricing power and that should be able to grow volumes beyond 2029.   

[Red Lion]

17 minutes ago, Dinar said:

No particular reason.  Assuming the company delivers on its targets, it is an 8% free cash flow yield to the equity on say 2029 numbers.  That's cheap for a business with this kind of pricing power and that should be able to grow volumes beyond 2029.   

 

I've been looking at this name again since you mentioned it a few weeks back, and I had been following for a few years around the time of the merger. This has perennially been one of those companies I want to buy, but can't wrap my head around the valuation. I'm trying to expand my perspective so this is very helpful. So you're willing to value this on 2029 numbers, with the understanding that it's an irreplaceable asset that should be able to maintain superior pricing power for a long period beyond that? Would this company be a net benefit of a trump/Harris administration? 

 

I'd like to understand this rationale more and get comfortable with it. I've missed out on a good investment over the years with CP, and really missed the boat on railroads in general. It seems like they really should have been a concentrated buy and hold type position when factoring in past stock performance in my investing lifetime.