Longnose Posted June 18 Posted June 18 2 minutes ago, ValueArb said: I loaded up on MOMO (Hello Group) last week. Simple thesis is trading at about 80% of net cash, business declining but consistently profitable and some potential for a turnaround, and management scores an A+ on capital allocation. Dividend yield is close to 10% (though dividends are specials one time per year) and it's buying back shares at a good rate. I try to avoid China due to concerns on accuracy of financials and regulation. In this case regulation is the reason sales have been declining so potentially the worst is behind them, and I have more confidence in its cash position and cash flows are real due to the very high dividend payments the last 4 years along with the share repurchases. Ive Traded MOMO several times over the years and lost more than won. They've been undervalued for a long time... The only times ive made money on them is buying usually around November/December and selling Feb/Mar. Ive found for several years they suffer a pretty big sell off at the end of the year. likely tax loss harvesting. and then the special divys are usually announced in Feb/Mar and there are people that buy up for this. Every time ive bought mid year like this ive lost money. Best of luck. I want MOMO to be great! and its definitely undervalued.
ValueArb Posted June 18 Posted June 18 9 minutes ago, Longnose said: Ive Traded MOMO several times over the years and lost more than won. They've been undervalued for a long time... The only times ive made money on them is buying usually around November/December and selling Feb/Mar. Ive found for several years they suffer a pretty big sell off at the end of the year. likely tax loss harvesting. and then the special divys are usually announced in Feb/Mar and there are people that buy up for this. Every time ive bought mid year like this ive lost money. Best of luck. I want MOMO to be great! and its definitely undervalued. Thanks, I'm ok holding for a few years and letting buybacks/dividends work. Based on their buyback rates, they seem to think its worth a lot more than $6 as when it dropped below that mark they had their biggest repurchases of the last twelve months (they paid up to $7 pre-dividend, but at slower rates). So I got in at $5.70 feeling that they wouldn't let it decline too much. One theory I've seen about price action is that BABA is liquidating external investments like MOMO, so MOMO might be buying what BABA is dumping.
sleepydragon Posted June 18 Posted June 18 22 minutes ago, ValueArb said: I loaded up on MOMO (Hello Group) last week. Simple thesis is trading at about 80% of net cash, business declining but consistently profitable and some potential for a turnaround, and management scores an A+ on capital allocation. Dividend yield is close to 10% (though dividends are specials one time per year) and it's buying back shares at a good rate. I try to avoid China due to concerns on accuracy of financials and regulation. In this case regulation is the reason sales have been declining so potentially the worst is behind them, and I have more confidence in its cash position and cash flows are real due to the very high dividend payments the last 4 years along with the share repurchases. I looked at MOMO too. Apparently they are known as the App for soliciting sex — essentially underground prostitution. That’s why a lot of people use it, thus they have high risk for being crack down by the government.
ValueArb Posted June 18 Posted June 18 11 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: I looked at MOMO too. Apparently they are known as the App for soliciting sex — essentially underground prostitution. That’s why a lot of people use it, thus they have high risk for being crack down by the government. They have multiple apps, and one (Tantan) is a dating app. Their user counts have declined substantially the last three years (Tantan MAUs dropped from 27M to 14M) as they've been forced to filter out spam accounts and presumably prostitution accounts. But that said they've reduced headcount from over 2,000 people to 1,382 end of last year, so great track record of managing expenses to revenues to maintain positive cash flow. Q1 they had a small loss but it was caused by a one time increase in a tax reserve.
hasilp89 Posted June 20 Posted June 20 On 12/2/2023 at 5:54 PM, Dinar said: Vestis a couple of weeks ago. While the stock is up around 10% from my purchase price, I think that the upside is tremendous and it may as much as a three bagger over the next 5 year if the company hits the targets that it mentioned at its investor day. @Dinar assuming you still own this. Any thoughts on this post earnings downgrade? Keith Meister from Corvex was appointed to the board and owns 13%. Assume he will be pushing for shareholders.
Dinar Posted June 20 Posted June 20 24 minutes ago, hasilp89 said: @Dinar assuming you still own this. Any thoughts on this post earnings downgrade? Keith Meister from Corvex was appointed to the board and owns 13%. Assume he will be pushing for shareholders. I sold most of my position in February after the lousy Q1 results. Unfortunately I kept probably 25% of my position, on which I took a big bath. I follow the company but I am shocked by managerial incompetence. My thesis was management and now it is not clear that they are any good. So no firm view here.
Ross812 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 Received a few grand in dividends and sold out of ADSK. Added 10% to my already outsized Fairfax position and added another 100 shares of DFIN at $57 which has slowly grown into my #3 position over the last couple years.
LC Posted June 21 Posted June 21 40 minutes ago, Ross812 said: Received a few grand in dividends and sold out of ADSK. Added 10% to my already outsized Fairfax position and added another 100 shares of DFIN at $57 which has slowly grown into my #3 position over the last couple years. I was going to ask if you've been buying more DFIN sub-60. I have been taking bites as well.
Ross812 Posted June 21 Posted June 21 6 minutes ago, LC said: I was going to ask if you've been buying more DFIN sub-60. I have been taking bites as well. Just took a look at my history and I've had 8 buys since 2 May between $57.30 and $60.50 and increased the position by 50%.
sleepydragon Posted June 21 Posted June 21 52 minutes ago, Ross812 said: Just took a look at my history and I've had 8 buys since 2 May between $57.30 and $60.50 and increased the position by 50%. interesting that they attended a conference hosted by Wolfe Research on 6/4, yet there's no research coverage of DFIN at Wolfe --- yet. So I am speculating Wolfe will come out a rating. Just added some too.
Gregmal Posted June 21 Posted June 21 FRPH. Dont know what the deal is, but it often has these sorta last minute seizures on triple/quad witching days. Ill take it.
LC Posted June 21 Posted June 21 3 hours ago, Gregmal said: FRPH. Dont know what the deal is, but it often has these sorta last minute seizures on triple/quad witching days. Ill take it. Saw that too end of day and took a few shares. I think that's just how some of these lesser known but good value stuff trades.
Jaygo Posted June 24 Posted June 24 Starter in MLM. 10 shares to keep me digging deeper. A few things have been pointing me in the direction of aggregates. To me this may be the easiest picks and shovels play for Ai (datacentres), deglobalization, infrastructure ect, housing ect.
fareastwarriors Posted June 25 Posted June 25 6 hours ago, rkbabang said: BTC Just DCAing? The drop seems mild in the grand scheme of things
rkbabang Posted June 25 Posted June 25 9 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: Just DCAing? The drop seems mild in the grand scheme of things I was buying every week in 2023 and I haven't bought any in more than a month, so slightly more than my usual buy, but yeah small purchases relative to what I already have.
Dave86ch Posted June 25 Posted June 25 6 hours ago, rkbabang said: I was buying every week in 2023 and I haven't bought any in more than a month, so slightly more than my usual buy, but yeah small purchases relative to what I already have. Same here
ArminvanBuyout Posted June 25 Posted June 25 21 hours ago, Jaygo said: Starter in MLM. 10 shares to keep me digging deeper. A few things have been pointing me in the direction of aggregates. To me this may be the easiest picks and shovels play for Ai (datacentres), deglobalization, infrastructure ect, housing ect. Agreed - near-term is a bit iffy because volumes will probably miss (they've been talking down volumes to the Street on weather and poor housing data), but over the MT / LT is a solid winner. They've also focused more on pricing through this cycle, which means that incremental margins likely better than before
Cod Liver Oil Posted June 25 Posted June 25 Richemont. Its a special asset that Arnault would like to own someday: https://www.ft.com/content/eb9a7ae9-0dee-4c52-8542-f4f890e459dd
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