What are you buying today?

[Gregmal]

Posted in wrong thread but added a bit more PCYO in last hour of trading. Here’s hoping Harding wakes the heck up.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Gregmal

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Posted in wrong thread but added a bit more PCYO in last hour of trading. Here’s hoping Harding wakes the heck up.

I also bought some PCYO but paid a bit more than you (~$9.4). Had a position before but opportunistically traded out of if a short time ago and wanted exposure back.

 

With microcaps, buybacks rarely happen because the CEO are often concerned about reducing liquidity even more and also have quite obscure frameworks for capital allocation. Big picture - you get PCYO for COVID-19 prices but with better fundamentals.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I also bought some PCYO but paid a bit more than you (~$9.4). Had a position before but opportunistically traded out of if a short time ago and wanted exposure back.

 

With microcaps, buybacks rarely happen because the CEO are often concerned about reducing liquidity even more and also have quite obscure frameworks for capital allocation. Big picture - you get PCYO for COVID-19 prices but with better fundamentals.

Way better. I know Mark and he hates the idea of debt or levering up, but cash build could reach $40m by year end with no debt and minor future spending obligation. Lot deliveries have largely been satisfied. Tap fees are freebies from here. If they wanted a LOC and bank facility liquidity probably would stand around $80-100m.
 

When the market tanks I’d prefer this trade a little more like FRPH, when it rebounds I’m glad it doesn’t lol. Just how it goes I guess.

[fareastwarriors]

Joining the party. $PCYO too

 

and more CKX and MSGS. 

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

Joining the party. $PCYO too

 

and more CKX and MSGS. 

If inflation is real, sure the discount rates move. But hard assets with real earning and net cash should at some point call bullshit on the stock market. Or we deteriorate into an economic depression and then I just wallow with my semi illiquid land, energy, and sports teams. Still trying to figure it all out. PCYO and CKX have big chunk of cash that even if not put to a more aggressive use can now collect interest. FRPH too.

[ACooke]

PCYO too - almost a full position for me now - I've been buying from ~$11 down, added a chunk more today - might take another swing if we see something in the mid $8's.

 

Also TPB - I think you can scratch the New Gen seg and you're getting some solid brands in ZZ and Stokers at a sub 10 earnings multiple. I think their sales should be reasonably sticky in a recessionary environment, they should have some pricing power. I think it's likely they can grow top and bottom line at something around mid - high single digits, especially if there's some cross synergies with the Clipper acquisition. Potentially some tailwinds from further weed legalization.

 

There's potential vaping takes share of the joint market which wouldn't be ideal, and more stringent cigarette laws hinder paper sales but they'll hopefully have some horses in that race if that's the case.

 

I think there's plenty of 'free options' in their New Gen seg and some of their minority holdings.

 

The new CEO concerns me a little - mildly concerned that he may be a bit of a Malone wannabe without the capacity to pull it off. Debt levels also something that needs to be monitored.

[Spekulatius]

@ACooke re TPB I agree with your assessment. It’s one of my biggest losers (in terms of % loss). I have been adding just a little recently, but my concerns with the CEO (no consumer goods experience) prevent me from getting in bigger.

 

I think they should sell or close down the NewGen (vape) business

[jfan]

18 hours ago, formthirteen said:

 

Seems like a small issue. One of the VIC write-ups had this to say about ICE revenue composition:

 

 35%: Market data (pricing & analytics, exchange data feeds, etc.)
 27%: Derivatives trading & clearing (Brent oil and other energy futures, agricultural and metals futures, European interest rate futures, etc.)

 10%: Transaction-based mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae, MERS, and Simplifile revenues tied to mortgage volumes)
 7%: Recurring mortgage revenues (Ellie Mae subscription revenues not tied to mortgage volumes)

 

 

 

The one yellow flag for me with them is the discordance between they willingness to pay down their debt after an acquisition despite speaking about it publicly. The second yellow flag is it seems that there is a transition process occurring with Jeff out of the CEO role over the past year with him bring his top managers into the spotlight.

[ourkid8]

More BABA to bring down my cost.  

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, ourkid8 said:

More BABA to bring down my cost.  

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, ourkid8 said:

More BABA to bring down my cost.  

Any idea why BABA is down today ? I didn't see any relevant news.

 

The explanations I saw in the IBKR news feed seem unconvincing (Rate hikes etc.).

[sleepydragon]

There’s a research from JPM analyst Alex Yao (same analyst who called baba uninvestable) about Chinese cloud, saying SOEs will take more shares away from baba and Tencent.

 

 

[sleepydragon]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Any idea why BABA is down today ? I didn't see any relevant news.

 

The explanations I saw in the IBKR news feed seem unconvincing (Rate hikes etc.).

 

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

There’s a research from JPM analyst Alex Yao (same analyst who called baba uninvestable) about Chinese cloud, saying SOEs will take more shares away from baba and Tencent.

 

 

 

Interesting - we heard that story before.  I get MS "research" via my retail E*trade account and the analyst is Gary Yu and has an OW on $BABA with a $140 target. I guess I get what I am paying for.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Spekulatius

[sleepydragon]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

 

Interesting - we heard that story before.  I get MS "research" via my retail E*trade account and the analyst is Gary Yu and has an OW on $BABA with a $140 target. I guess I get what I am paying for.

Yeah, I know. And SOEs move like 3x slower than private companies.

 

i also suspected Goldman is selling their SoftBank “put baba” shares. They had a bullish research a couple days ago. Imo, they are going to want to get the share all sold  before the audit results come out. 

[sleepydragon]

If it’s really Goldman selling the SoftBank shares(just my  speculation ), then these brokers will usually aggressively sell 90%, creating market impact, and then leave a few% long for their own book, waiting it bounce back and profit from it. 

[KPO]

MSGE

[fareastwarriors]

1 hour ago, KPO said:

MSGE

 

Same.

 

and PCYO

 

 

Edited September 21, 2022 by fareastwarriors

[CorpRaider]

CMCSA

[Spekulatius]

Bought a starter of $KKR and $MKL and a bit $V. Small adds all over the place $USB, $CRM, $PCYO, $IAA.

[Spekulatius]

Todays mood:

[Seoshin]

22 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Bought a starter of $KKR and $MKL and a bit $V. Small adds all over the place $USB, $CRM, $PCYO, $IAA.

What's your investment thesis on $MKL

[Gregmal]

HHC, META, JOE

[Spekulatius]

32 minutes ago, Seoshin said:

What's your investment thesis on $MKL

It’s just a buy and put away stock. I expect about 10% annual return from it.

[ACooke]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@ACooke re TPB I agree with your assessment. It’s one of my biggest losers (in terms of % loss). I have been adding just a little recently, but my concerns with the CEO (no consumer goods experience) prevent me from getting in bigger.

 

I think they should sell or close down the NewGen (vape) business

I agree - they may do so. They've scaled back capex within the seg as far as I'm aware - I guess whether they make a further push or continue winding it down somewhat will depend on the PMTA outcome. Even if they're successful there, I'm not certain a whole lot comes of their in-house brands.

 

I wonder what they could part the seg out for - surely the E-commerce side of it is worth *something*.

 

As for the CEO - there's not many positives I could find spoken about him from his last role although that was mainly from forums and blogs. I can't recall the magazine exactly but it was a motorsport magazine which in his defence - i think any time you move in to a niche, cultish (too strong of a word here but meh) type hobby and start making business-savvy changes - you're asking for push back from fans. Bobby Kotick is probably a good example on a much grander scale.

 

He's certainly an unknown quantity at the very least.