What are you buying today?

[Spekulatius]

ABG (starter) and adds to PSMT, FYBR, VNT and FB

Edited February 4, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Paarslaars]

BABA, MNDY

[boilermaker75]

On 2/3/2022 at 11:02 AM, LC said:

 

Same although I closed out the position 30 min later for a 50% gain. Bored trading I guess.

 

Also bought FB stock though, I plan to hold that.

 

I held mine to expiration.

 

I'll check back on Wednesday/Thursday and if FB is still trading in this range probably write some Feb 11 expiration puts.

[dimi123]

FB, TWTR, PINS, AMZN, TTWO, SHOP

 

Still thinking about NFLX.

 

I was buying ATVI as well but that got taken out.

[formthirteen]

TME, the OnlyFans "live karaoke with tipping" of China and Spotify "leading streaming music service" in China with over 800m active users.

 

FB, which is now trading at roughly half the P/E and around the same EV/EBITDA multiple as IBM.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if both are dead money for years.

Edited February 7, 2022 by formthirteen

[throw123]

fb 231

[Red Lion]

Added to BUR.

[Castanza]

BABA

[throw123]

14 minutes ago, Castanza said:

BABA

tempting but already a sizable position for me and buying FB has left me with little ammunition.

[Red Lion]

Added to KKR. 

[Gregmal]

AIV and JOE

[CorpRaider]

AIV

[Pelagic]

Started a small position in FB and AIV. 

[ValueArb]

On 2/4/2022 at 4:59 AM, NotSoWise said:

There is a pretty good and recent VIC write up on Dufry - worth reading. Overall it is about getting back to normal after covid. It is not a forever hold/ compounder (higher and higher rents they pay at airports), but rather bounce back situation. Number of flights are mostly back (EU/ USA) with the number of passengers slowly catching up (save for China). Probably this holiday season should be reasonably close to what it used to be in the past, so Q3'22 numbers should be pretty strong. 2023 probably back to normal. They are already CF breakeven (but with temporarily lower rents, which will go up with better CF), so no bankruptcy risk. Strong minority shareholders with cash (Advent/ Alibaba), so worst case another capital raise, which I dont expect. Good thing was that not all capital raise went to dilution. Part of the money went to delist their subsidiary Hudson News in US at a low price.

 

Airport concessions are great businesses. I know this because I used to play high stakes poker with a guy who owned a bunch at our local airport. He was making so much money he never had to fold a hand!

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

Airport concessions are great businesses. I know this because I used to play high stakes poker with a guy who owned a bunch at our local airport. He was making so much money he never had to fold a hand!

Isn't Aena cheaper and a better business?

[KPO]

17 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Isn't Aena cheaper and a better business?

And didn’t DUFRY dilute their equity holder’s free cash flow per share by issuing shares and debt to stay afloat? What’s the expected 2022 FCF/share vs 2019? This seems similar to the cruise lines in that it’s obviously depressed by Covid, but potentially not particularly undervalued due to dilution. 

[Spekulatius]

6 minutes ago, KPO said:

And didn’t DUFRY dilute their equity holder’s free cash flow per share by issuing shares and debt to stay afloat? What’s the expected 2022 FCF/share vs 2019? This seems similar to the cruise lines in that it’s obviously depressed by Covid, but potentially not particularly undervalued due to dilution. 

I would Aena any time over this one.

[KPO]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I would Aena any time over this one.

Have they diluted their shareholders? What’s the 2022 projected FCF/share compared to 2019? 

[NotSoWise]

They were much better businesses in the past, with less professional airports operators, where rents were smaller than they should be compared to traffic they offered (and exclusivity). However with more professionalism in airports, the rents are going up each year (on average across retail portfolio) and the business is very slowly loosing its profitability. So it is an ok business today, but I would not keep it long term. Once the numbers bounce back, I will sell.

[boilermaker75]

On 2/5/2022 at 9:38 AM, boilermaker75 said:

 

I held mine to expiration.

 

I'll check back on Wednesday/Thursday and if FB is still trading in this range probably write some Feb 11 expiration puts.

 

Wrote some 210-strike, Friday 2/11 expiration puts.

 

Edit: Didn't have the patience to wait till later in the week.

Edited February 8, 2022 by boilermaker75

[Dinar]

11 hours ago, KPO said:

Have they diluted their shareholders? What’s the 2022 projected FCF/share compared to 2019? 

Aena did NOT dilute its shareholders.  I expect 2023 traffic to reach 2019 levels, and free cash flow yield to exceed 7%.  You also get real estate assets around Barcelona and Madrid that will be monetized.

[Red Lion]

Added to KKR. 

[DooDiligence]

BBH

 

Halfway to a full position that I intend to hold until...

[NotSoWise]

Look at the price range of Dufry and Aena over the past 5 years. Do you see any potential for meaningful bounce back at Aena? I bought Dufry at CHF 35 with the hope of it getting to CHF 70-100 in 3 years time horizon (until flights return to normal). If I am right, my potential return is 2x-3x. At today's price, I am already at 1,4x in 1,33 years.

 

If I had bought Aena at the same time (Sep'20) at EUR 120, my upside in 3 years would be up to probably EUR 170. If I was right here, my return would be 1,4x in 3 years.

 

So which one of the two made more sense? Which one would you chose?

 

As for share issue, part of it went to delist their subsidiary Hudson news at very low price (on which they should do 2-3x money), I dont count this as earnings dilution. The rest went to raise cash to survive covid, so only larger part of the issue was dilution.

 

 

[StevieV]

20 hours ago, RedLion said:

Added to KKR. 

Me too.

 

FRE, DE and AUM all growing nicely.