What are you buying today?

[kab60]

Swedish Match

[Monsieur_dee]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Started a little Disney.

Doesn't seem like your usual buy? 

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, Monsieur_dee said:

Doesn't seem like your usual buy? 

Did I mention Disney has over 18,000 prime acres of undeveloped land around the parks? LOL Just kidding. 

 

I owned the name for a long time, on and off and sold it late 2019 or so. I dont regret missing the buy at $100 during covid because I did way better buying other stuff. But at this point in time I definitely think its worth trying to get back into as its one of the best positioned, large cap, low maintenance companies I am aware of in terms of its positioning for the future. They have a Netflix equivalent streaming biz thats early in its growth. Theme parks are irreplaceable, dominant, and have Herculean pricing power. They have the sports betting market in their crosshairs. Content is best in class. And yea, some great real estate. The brand is one of the best to ever exist. So theres a ton of things going for it and I think they benefit from not only reopening theme type stuff but also the trends in place pre covid. Would ideally like to pyramid into a bigger position but today was a good place to start at $160.

[Gregmal]

Disney is essentially a collection of trophies. I like owning trophies. I'll leave the whole quarreling about PEs and the "its expensive" stuff for others to play with. 

[Spekulatius]

52 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Disney is essentially a collection of trophies. I like owning trophies. I'll leave the whole quarreling about PEs and the "its expensive" stuff for others to play with. 

Unfortunately, Disney owns ESPN, which is not a trophy but a melting icecube/ cash cow.

Can you elaborate  the ESPN sport betting angle? I would guess that the sports leagues will license this out and capture most of the economics.

Edited November 12, 2021 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

ESPN any way you cut it is/was the dominant sports programming network. Its just horribly mismanaged and too political. Keep politics out of sports you dumb fucks LOL. And IMO will be spun out or sold but Im not really worried about it in the grand scheme of things anymore than owning MSG Networks. People always scrutinize the heck out these but if the programming/content is unique enough they'll just keep printing cash until its time to evolve. Whatever that may be. Like MSGE did, DIS can just take the low multiple, shitty valuation gobs of cash they get from the network and fund high growth, premium valuation investments in other places. Streaming will carry way more weight in terms of how this trades than ESPN individually and I expect DIS to remain strong there. 

 

They mentioned sports betting on the call today and I think if done correctly they are absolutely right that it can be integrated into the ESPN platform which will in turn bring in younger audience. 

 

We do believe that sports betting is a very significant opportunity for the Company, and it's all driven by the consumer. It's driven by the consumer, particularly the younger consumer that will replenish the sports fans over time and their desire to have gambling as part of their sports experience. It's not necessarily a lean-back, it's a little bit of a lean-forward type experience that they're looking for, and as we follow the consumer, we necessarily have to seriously consider getting into gambling in a bigger way, and ESPN is a perfect platform for this. We have done substantial research in terms of the impact to not only to ESPN brand, but the Disney brand in terms of consumers changing perceptions of the acceptability of gambling, and what we're finding is that there's a very significant isolation.

Gambling does not have the cache now that it had, say 10 or 20 years ago, and we have some concerns as a Company about our ability to get in it without having a brand withdrawal. But I can tell you that given all the research that we've done recently, that that is not the case. It actually strengthens the brand of ESPN when you have a betting component, and it has no impact on the Disney brand. Therefore, to go after that demographic opportunity plus the, of course, not insignificant revenue implications, that is something that we're keenly interested in and are pursuing aggressively.

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, kab60 said:

Swedish Match

Same here. SWMA looks very attractive relative to $PM (which is no slouch either).

Edited November 12, 2021 by Spekulatius

[WFF]

IDN

[Red Lion]

Bought more APO. Should be pretty well filled up on this one right now other than some short PUTS.

[fareastwarriors]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Same here. SWMA looks very attractive relative to $PM (which is no slouch either).

@kab60 @Spekulatius

 

What are your opinions on British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands?

 

 

 

[kab60]

4 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

@kab60 @Spekulatius

 

What are your opinions on British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands?

 

 

 

I already own a boatload. Like 25 pct of my portfolio is in Altria and BTI. It's cheaper, lower risk and with a smaller range of outcomes I'd say, so I sized it bigger. But Swedish Match has more upside on a longterm horizon.

[Spekulatius]

30 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said:

@kab60 @Spekulatius

 

What are your opinions on British American Tobacco and Imperial Brands?

 

 

 

I also own a bit of BTI. I don't own Imperial Tobacco. I think BTI is the cheapest nicotine stock out there, SWMA is the growthiest.

 

I believe SWMA compares favorably to PM both in terms of valuation as well as business quality.

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I also own a bit of BTI. I don't own Imperial Tobacco. I think BTI is the cheapest nicotine stock out there, SWMA is the growthiest.

 

I believe SWMA compares favorably to PM both in terms of valuation as well as business quality.

I own bti and swmay, agree with the quote

[maplevalue]

Vintage blow mold Christmas decorations. Gotta be early this year with all the supply chain disruptions going on.

[irnovo]

Added to GRFS. Overlevered due to acquisitions, but the business is here to stay and will grow. 

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

Added to both DIS & CVS yesterday will probably continue adding to those positions on Monday. 

 

[CafeB]

1 hour ago, irnovo said:

Added to GRFS. Overlevered due to acquisitions, but the business is here to stay and will grow. 

I would appreciate any additional thoughts on Grifols, irnovo. For several weeks I have been waiting to start a position--and on many of those days the stock has made a new low. The Biotest acquisition certainly seems attractive.

[irnovo]

On 11/13/2021 at 10:46 AM, CafeB said:

I would appreciate any additional thoughts on Grifols, irnovo. For several weeks I have been waiting to start a position--and on many of those days the stock has made a new low. The Biotest acquisition certainly seems attractive.

I'll suggest reading two writeups on VIC, https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/

For me, I am mostly looking at bigger picture and downside protection. Plasma protein market will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. GRFS is in plasma protein oligopoly. Debt is being used to acquire smaller players in the market. The cost of debt is low, indicating no worries that company will not be able to debt/interest. I don't see a scenario where rev does not grow or margins suppress. The risk is that gene editing tech (CRISPR etc) makes plasma protein therapies obsolete, but that is really far in my opinion. Recent weakness in share price is due to debt and dividend cut. My time horizon and expectation is a double in 5 years.

[Red Lion]

A bit more APO around $75. 

[kh812000]

SWCH.

 

Amazing how under the radar this co is.  Just had analyst day yesterday.

Guides double digit revenue growth for next 10 years.

Guides best in class EBITDA margin 55% for mature properties

In the catbird seat for migration of workloads off enterprise into cloud / tier 4 colocation.

REIT conversion on track for January 2023.

Just a solid solid co that noone talks about.

 

[formthirteen]

Added to SWMA and BRK. Bought IMXI.

Edited November 16, 2021 by formthirteen
Muffett & Bunger

[LC]

1 hour ago, kh812000 said:

SWCH.

 

Amazing how under the radar this co is.  Just had analyst day yesterday.

Guides double digit revenue growth for next 10 years.

Guides best in class EBITDA margin 55% for mature properties

In the catbird seat for migration of workloads off enterprise into cloud / tier 4 colocation.

REIT conversion on track for January 2023.

Just a solid solid co that noone talks about.

 

 

What is your opinion on valuation? Looks like it's trading ~16x AFFO

 

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by LC

[Gregmal]

small add to CLI, few more APTS 4/22 $10s

[rkbabang]

Added 20% to my LAACZ position.  ~8% expected gain on those additional units in a few months.

Edited November 16, 2021 by rkbabang

[Spekulatius]

15 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

Added 20% to my LAACZ position.  ~8% expected gain on those additional units in a few months.

Looks like your parents thought you to leave no crumbs on the plate as a kid.