What are you buying today?

[aws]

A new house. Paying 3x more per square foot than my last house from 9 years ago ($270/sq ft vs. $90 last time), but in this market we were probably lucky to get anything. And this was probably the most reasonably priced of the homes we offered on as most closed at more like 400/sq ft.

[Gregmal]

25 minutes ago, aws said:

A new house. Paying 3x more per square foot than my last house from 9 years ago ($270/sq ft vs. $90 last time), but in this market we were probably lucky to get anything. And this was probably the most reasonably priced of the homes we offered on as most closed at more like 400/sq ft.

Good shit. I'm in the process of closing on a property as well. A couple months ago I didnt think I've be pulling the trigger for a long time given the market, but sometimes when you really evaluate things, the opportunity cost is too great and its better to just bite the bullet. 

[Gregmal]

On 8/5/2021 at 10:07 AM, gfp said:

 

 

This one was a great heads up - Thanks Gregmal

In case you guys are still holding...word of advice on the CRISPR stocks....never sell a small piece of your position. If you understand the investment case, the sky is the limit and irrespective of how it plays out the moves in these names will shock you so dont get too giddy after a simple 10-20% move. Ive generally found trimming 20-30% of the position after 30-50% moves or so works. Then reverse that process in terms of accumulating. You'll have your original investment pulled in no time. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Bought some PFIX yesterday to profit from higher long-rates. 

 

Moved 15-20% of my intermediate bond funds to money market. 

 

Still in the lower for longer camp on rates - definitely don't see 2-3% interest rates anytime soon, but the move down in rates has been strong and fast and TLT has been bouncing off of over-bought levels for a bit now. 

 

Also, seems as if the consensus in some places is now for another major leg down ...which made anxious that we're now ready to move the opposite direction and head back closer to 1.5 - 1.6%

Edited August 6, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[matthew2129]

2 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Bought some PFIX yesterday to profit from higher long-rates. 

 

Moved 15-20% of my intermediate bond funds to money market. 

 

Still in the lower for longer camp on rates - definitely don't see 2-3% interest rates anytime soon, but the move down in rates has been strong and fast and TLT has been bouncing off of over-bought levels for a bit now. 

 

Also, seems as if the consensus in some places is now for another major leg down ...which made anxious that we're now ready to move the opposite direction and head back closer to 1.5 - 1.6%

Curious why you picked PFIX instead of something like XLF or VFH? I don't know much about PFIX. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Leverage. 

 

PFIX is a swaption wrapped in an ETF. Basically they own options to enter into floating rate interest rate swaps once 20-year rates get to 3-4%. 

 

In short, it's an option (leverage) that allows you to enter into a contract where you short fixed rates and go long floating rates (more leverage) on 20-year rates (massive duration/leverage). 

 

Up 3% today. Dunno what the 20-year reference rate moved, but 10-year is only up 0.07% so this thing gives you MANY multiples exposure to the rise in rates and doesn't come with any of the business specific risk of owning financials directly. 

 

Also, I already own a ton of European financials so covered there. 

[johnpane]

16 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Up 3% today. Dunno what the 20-year reference rate moved, but 10-year is only up 0.07% so this thing gives you MANY multiples exposure to the rise in rates and doesn't come with any of the business specific risk of owning financials directly. 

The market price was up 3% Friday but the NAV barely moved. So don't count on that day's action as an indicator of leverage. Also, keep in mind that the swaption prices are also affected by volatility.

 

https://www.simplify.us/etfs/pfix-simplify-interest-rate-hedge-etf

 

NAV Change

+$0.07/0.17%

Price Change

+$1.26/3.14%

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by johnpane

[TwoCitiesCapital]

7 hours ago, johnpane said:

The market price was up 3% Friday but the NAV barely moved. So don't count on that day's action as an indicator of leverage. Also, keep in mind that the swaption prices are also affected by volatility.

 

https://www.simplify.us/etfs/pfix-simplify-interest-rate-hedge-etf

 

NAV Change

+$0.07/0.17%

Price Change

+$1.26/3.14%

 

 

+1

 

Hadn't considered to check the NAV, but ultimately this should act as a super leveraged exposure to rising 20-year rates which was my intention. 

[Every Banana Counts]

JD and BABA over the last few weeks. Both felt uncomfortable to buy, as there is obviously a lot of fear and publicity surrounding China now. Setting aside massive regulatory risks this seems like a simple investment decision. Position size is the only way I know to manage the very complex regulatory risk. These are both great companies in a system I don’t understand and have a very hard time relating to. 

[formthirteen]

$WISH and $PDD

 

Yes, this might be a sign that we're at the top.

Edited August 9, 2021 by formthirteen

[fareastwarriors]

some MSGE

[WayWardCloud]

More Tencent.

 

It has become a major position of mine.

Amazing core business spitting out free cash which is being reallocated to a gigantic international VC portfolio.

If you back out their investments this trades at a PE in the low teens.

 

I wish the CCP would leave them alone but then again it's the only reason you could ever buy this for so cheap so I'm ready to take the political risk and see where we're at in 10 years. Politicians and their scrutiny come and go, hopefully.

Edited August 9, 2021 by WayWardCloud

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

some MSGE

Me too. Its definitely caught in the current "oh no covid" selling cycle/trading pattern...but whatever. I like playing that game. I'm shocked people are still playing it on the panic sell side, but just remember how it played out last time. Take you time accumulating, make a lot of money once the boogey man fades. Indestructible, world class trophy assets for sure, and the LYV Q2 note was immensely bullish for the space. 

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, fareastwarriors said:

some MSGE

Me too

 

Las Vegas is never shutting down again & NYC......well.......vaccination rates are high, it was epicentre of early COVID so lots of people with Mid-2020 naturally acquired antibodies.....combined NY metro is probably at ~75% of adults with COVID antibodies . Lockdowns wont be needed, health system wont be overwhelemed and NY'ers are done staying in their basements

 

MSG Arena will be full this fall/winter with sports and concerts

Rockettes will be jam packed as it has been for 84 years (excepting last year)

Tao Group restaurants are already full / booked out in NYC for weekend nights

Sports betting is coming to NY state - MSGN will have super engaged viewers for knicks/rangers games & desperate advertisers looking to pitch their gambling gaming app

 

[Gregmal]

On 8/6/2021 at 10:30 AM, Gregmal said:

In case you guys are still holding...word of advice on the CRISPR stocks....never sell a small piece of your position. If you understand the investment case, the sky is the limit and irrespective of how it plays out the moves in these names will shock you so dont get too giddy after a simple 10-20% move. Ive generally found trimming 20-30% of the position after 30-50% moves or so works. Then reverse that process in terms of accumulating. You'll have your original investment pulled in no time. 

Took 30% off CRBU today. Nice little move here. 

[rosemontseneca]

16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Me too

 

Las Vegas is never shutting down again & NYC......well.......vaccination rates are high, it was epicentre of early COVID so lots of people with Mid-2020 naturally acquired antibodies.....combined NY metro is probably at ~75% of adults with COVID antibodies . Lockdowns wont be needed, health system wont be overwhelemed and NY'ers are done staying in their basements

 

MSG Arena will be full this fall/winter with sports and concerts

Rockettes will be jam packed as it has been for 84 years (excepting last year)

Tao Group restaurants are already full / booked out in NYC for weekend nights

Sports betting is coming to NY state - MSGN will have super engaged viewers for knicks/rangers games & desperate advertisers looking to pitch their gambling gaming app

 

 

Does anyone worry about the expiration of the MSG use permit in 2023?  With Cuomo on the way out, I don't think MSG is as well protected politically as it was in 2013.  Could MSG get shut down or get forced to build elsewhere without adequate compensation? 

 

That said, the SOTP math still works even if you zero out the garden.  

[Gregmal]

^I do actually worry about something like that from time to time. Its never actually been explained to my satisfaction what the ramifications of that scenario are. However I ultimately fall back on the fact that I think this would be an unmitigated PR nightmare, and self inflicted, easily avoidable wound for the politicians as MSG is basically a NYC historical landmark and there's few things that NYers are more passionate about, to a non partisan degree, than their sports and entertainment. 

[rkbabang]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Took 30% off CRBU today. Nice little move here. 

 

The day I bought CRBU for $16.82 I set a sell limit order for half of my shares at $33.71 (just over double).  It will probably get there soon.

 

[Gregmal]

tacked on a few BAM @55.6

[Spekulatius]

Bought/Added:

KNBE (flipped position already)

MSP: small starter (added before earnings)

NTDOY (add)

MGACPO.MX (add)

TGTX (tracker)

 

Edited August 12, 2021 by Spekulatius

[backtothebeach]

On 8/10/2021 at 4:33 PM, Gregmal said:

Took 30% off CRBU today. Nice little move here. 

 

Nice call!

 

CRBU has now retraced 33% of its $ gains from the low of $15.03 to the high of $28.96. If it retraces 50% the reentry price could be around $22.

 

I actually don't use TA usually, but how else would you find a method for trading around a position if not retracements, support/resistance, or gaps?

 

Interestingly there are no gaps to be filled, even though the rise took only 9 trading days.

 

 

 

 

[DooDiligence]

Added a little SoftBank to make it a 2.6% allocation.

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Nice call!

 

CRBU has now retraced 33% of its $ gains from the low of $15.03 to the high of $28.96. If it retraces 50% the reentry price could be around $22.

 

I actually don't use TA usually, but how else would you find a method for trading around a position if not retracements, support/resistance, or gaps?

 

Interestingly there are no gaps to be filled, even though the rise took only 9 trading days.

 

 

 

 

Technicals to me are like 5-10% of the equation. The variables are always moving though and nothing is static. Good old fashioned gut feeling is the best trading indicator. Discipline and sizing matter too of course. You can take a starter and lose 100% and if its sized right, who cares? 

 

Agree a low $20s re-entry on a partial would be ideal. 

[aws]

Doing my part to bolster Berkshire's Q3 earnings. A week after buying a new house through Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, I bought a house full of furniture at Jordan's.

[DooDiligence]

4 minutes ago, aws said:

Doing my part to bolster Berkshire's Q3 earnings. A week after buying a new house through Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, I bought a house full of furniture at Jordan's.

 

Does it need paint?

 

 

May I suggest Benjamin Moore?