thepupil Posted September 23, 2020 Posted September 23, 2020 EQC +1, 0-7% discount to NAV at 10-6% cap, value of EQC increases as real estate stocks/private market goes down. there’s like $300B of RE PE dry powder, but I think a single deal $2.8B cash pile + equity group backing is unique. The biggest tail risk I see is them doing a poorly received deal with another one of my holdings and I find I own too much of one thing. This is probably me just being paranoid because I’m dipping into the cash/bond allocation to buy EQC.
fareastwarriors Posted September 23, 2020 Posted September 23, 2020 EQC +1, 0-7% discount to NAV at 10-6% cap, value of EQC increases as real estate stocks/private market goes down. there’s like $300B of RE PE dry powder, but I think a single deal $2.8B cash pile + equity group backing is unique. The biggest tail risk I see is them doing a poorly received deal with another one of my holdings and I find I own too much of one thing. This is probably me just being paranoid because I’m dipping into the cash/bond allocation to buy EQC. Nice. Added a bit to EQC and smaller bit to EQR
CorpRaider Posted September 23, 2020 Posted September 23, 2020 My biggest fear is they sit there sucking their thumb and paying the SG&A. I saw some commentary that the paying of the dividend means people infer they don't intend to close a deal this tax year. I dunno about that but I do know Zell has been cautious for years in his like "market commentary." Though to be honest from what I've read about him I kind of think he just gives his opinion on macro stuff but it doesn't really impact what he actually does, which seems to be buy quality property below replacement value that has been under-managed/presents obvious value-add opportunities. But if he said that every time he was asked a question on a TV program, he probably wouldn't get many invites. I almost did some more EQR (and some PGRE) today too but I have to save some room for "disrupted" financials and "disrupted" media companies in with my "disrupted" real estate. haha
boilermaker75 Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 Wrote some BRKB 205-strike 9/25 expiration puts for $0.71 per share.
Gregmal Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 Small adds to RTX, PCYO, PPL Bought some of this too last couple days. Also added to WM and V today. On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is. They are monetizing their land effectively and growing recurring revenue at a very high rate for the foreseeable future. Dan Kozlowski has been adding like a madman to an already significant stake which is encouraging as well. Given the balance sheet strength, I'd like to see a buyback put in place, as do a number of shareholders...many of which have passed this along to Mark. Either way, phase 2 should be announced next quarter which will provide another tailwind in terms of tap fees and lot sales. This is currently my 2nd largest position at a bit under 20%.
KJP Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is. I had the same thought. I realize PCYO is concentrated in one area and the big homebuilders are much more geographically diverse, but it's strange that PCYO hasn't really budged.
Spekulatius Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is. I had the same thought. I realize PCYO is concentrated in one area and the big homebuilders are much more geographically diverse, but it's strange that PCYO hasn't really budged. PCYO lost all the high margin $ from the Oil and Gas industry ( both royalty and fracking water ). That’s not a problem a home builder has.
Castanza Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 On PCYO, the underperformance is indeed perplexing. They own all the stuff you'd think does very well with the housing market on fire like it is. I had the same thought. I realize PCYO is concentrated in one area and the big homebuilders are much more geographically diverse, but it's strange that PCYO hasn't really budged. PCYO lost all the high margin $ from the Oil and Gas industry ( both royalty and fracking water ). That’s not a problem a home builder has. The majority of rev doesn't come from O&G supply but I agree they are handicapped (in this segment) near term due to oil and gas production. Guidance for revenue and profitability is still there despite the lull in that segment.
Gregmal Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 Yea Ive spoken with a good % of the shareholder base over the years and I am yet aware really of anyone who weighs the O&G/fracking as anything but a free option. I did see one writeup a while ago with a super bull case in which it could account for $1 per share of NAV. Its just kind of there, but not material IMO. They are not a homebuilder. They prep the lots but have contracts currently with 3 national builders and profit arrangements with all. There's currently 7 national builders looking to get involved in phase 2, which a couple years out should include over 1M sq/ft of commercial. The main asset is the water rights/servicing. This is a very conservatively managed company that basically has a whole lot of optionality, great inflation protected assets, and a pristine balance sheet. My only guess on the underperformance is really just a few of the larger legacy holders still lightening up and perhaps a bit of an unwind from the October - March rally where the stock literally never had a down day. But IDK. I'm good all day with this one here at $9.
bizaro86 Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 Yeah, I've been a buyer recently here at $9.xx I think I'd prefer to see them buy some more land vs buy back stock however. If they could get a couple more neighborhoods using their water they'd really speed up the tap fees, which is where the value is. Even if servicing the land was a break even proposition, accelerating the tap fee monetization by a decade or two has a big NPV affect.
Gregmal Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 Agreed. They were close to a deal in January apparently, so we shall see. They have balance sheet options. I'd love to see maybe something like a $10M repurchase authorization and then $20-30M of land acquisitions.
nspo Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 It's weird that I was just searching old PCYO thread today... I'll take that as a sign Bought some PCYO, NTDOY
TwoCitiesCapital Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 Have been buying more mortgage REITS - primarily Annaly and AGNC. Selling deep ITM covered calls against the new shares to recoup some cash and insulate against price movements if we hit volatility surrounding the election or if defaults/refinanced are worse than normal. Just collecting double digit dividends with limited price exposure waiting for a little more confidence in the market/economy.
Castanza Posted September 24, 2020 Posted September 24, 2020 CRSR starter Recent IPO, looks interesting at these levels. Basically 1x sales, decent free cash flow, margins are meh, but growth seems to be there. https://ir.corsair.com/
Gregmal Posted September 25, 2020 Posted September 25, 2020 Finished building a bit of a position in GEOS. Liquidity is a bitch in this one but its an incredible setup. Trades at half of an understated book. No debt. cash + conservative estimate on RE currently equates to about $5 per share. Yea I know O&G suck. I agree. But this is basically a free call option on anything happening at these prices. Including the two new activists forcing a sale/liquidation.
Lance Posted September 27, 2020 Posted September 27, 2020 This week. Adds: DVYE, ENB, ESRT, EQR, GBTC, PBCT, PGRE and TPL New: T. Rowe Price Japan fund Thanks Lance
Gregmal Posted September 29, 2020 Posted September 29, 2020 rebought some PIC. EDIT: also snagged more PCYO under $9.
winjitsu Posted September 29, 2020 Posted September 29, 2020 SOGO merger arb by Tencent Buyout price @ 9 cash, currently trading at 8.86, expected closing Q4. Looking at 1.6% return in ~ 3 months for a well financed buyer.
Mark Jr. Posted September 30, 2020 Posted September 30, 2020 CloudMD (DOC.V) added to a starter position. Growth, acquisitor, building out a vertical healthcare space. Last week: FWZ.V - Zinc. Commodity super-cycle theory. Entered on a technical pattern. RBX.V - Gold miner, profitable (P/E ~ 9), paying a special dividend 0.04 on Sept 25, 0.06 paid this year, trading at 0.48.
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