What are you buying today?

[LC]

Sold out of MO, bought PM with proceeds. Bought a little WFC and cloudflare

[thepupil]

sold Prosus, purchased on 3/24 mostly, for a 40% gain. still "cheap" to 700HK/NAV but this is my way of sizing down the big cap tech exposure, selling out the chinese one. holding onto the other ones is hard given the absolute/relative valuations, but I'm doing it.

[Gregmal]

ESRT and PCYO

[sleepydragon]

Wfc

[plato1976]

The heated up discussion about WFC and the increased number of ppl buying WFC here scared sh*t out of me

 

sold Prosus, purchased on 3/24 mostly, for a 40% gain. still "cheap" to 700HK/NAV but this is my way of sizing down the big cap tech exposure, selling out the chinese one. holding onto the other ones is hard given the absolute/relative valuations, but I'm doing it.

[thepupil]

The heated up discussion about WFC and the increased number of ppl buying WFC here scared sh*t out of me

 

sold Prosus, purchased on 3/24 mostly, for a 40% gain. still "cheap" to 700HK/NAV but this is my way of sizing down the big cap tech exposure, selling out the chinese one. holding onto the other ones is hard given the absolute/relative valuations, but I'm doing it.

 

sorry what does that have to do with Prosus/700HK? do you mean the performance/resilience of big cap tech is scaring the shit out of you or do you mean the dip buying in WFC is? or both?

[LC]

It is interesting all the people buying WFC whereas WB was selling.

 

(And WB may be fully exiting his WFC stake - if you recall during the annual meeting he mentioned "We don't trim positions")

 

Makes me fear I am missing something big and obvious.

 

 

[Mephistopheles]

It is interesting all the people buying WFC whereas WB was selling.

 

(And WB may be fully exiting his WFC stake - if you recall during the annual meeting he mentioned "We don't trim positions")

 

Makes me fear I am missing something big and obvious.

 

 

 

Is WFC fundamentally broken? For him to unload WFC and not BAC means it must be WFC specific. Yes WFC is like toxic waste right now in the banking world, but it is also like half of TBV and very well capitalized. He bought into BAC when not only was it toxic but also had tens of billions of legal liabilities. Is he saying it was possible to turn around BAC but not WFC? Did he like the odds of BAC in 2011 more than WFC today? BofA was not too much lower in total market cap then what WFC is today, and capital levels at all these banks are much better now.

 

Or does he think it's an industry wide problem, interest rates, great depression? In that case he should be selling both off.

[fareastwarriors]

What about CM and DJCO? What are they doing with their WFC stake?

 

[karthikpm]

It is interesting all the people buying WFC whereas WB was selling.

 

(And WB may be fully exiting his WFC stake - if you recall during the annual meeting he mentioned "We don't trim positions")

 

Makes me fear I am missing something big and obvious.

 

How do we know he is selling now ?

[JRM]

It is interesting all the people buying WFC whereas WB was selling.

 

(And WB may be fully exiting his WFC stake - if you recall during the annual meeting he mentioned "We don't trim positions")

 

Makes me fear I am missing something big and obvious.

 

How do we know he is selling now ?

 

He reduced his position by about 15% as of Berkshire's last 13f filing.

[LC]

Mephistopheles - this is exactly the questions I am asking myself. If his reason to sell is WFC-specific, what is it? He mentioned in an interview prior to the Annual mtg that he was still confident in the WFC brand. Now that is just the brand - it doesn't speak to the cost structure, the loan book, management, or anything else.

 

As to whether it is WB selling - this is a pure guess, partially trying to think of the "wort case scenario. As JRM mentioned the 13F filed in Feb shows 323.2MM WFC shares help by Berkshire which is a reduction of 15%. Combine that with the excessive selling in the past month or so (compared to other banks) , and combined with WB's comments at the AGM, this is my less-than-educated guess.

[valueinvestor]

SE, AER, TDG, PK, GSY, EVBG, COUP, XPEL

[alwaysdrawing]

Mephistopheles - this is exactly the questions I am asking myself. If his reason to sell is WFC-specific, what is it? He mentioned in an interview prior to the Annual mtg that he was still confident in the WFC brand. Now that is just the brand - it doesn't speak to the cost structure, the loan book, management, or anything else.

 

As to whether it is WB selling - this is a pure guess, partially trying to think of the "wort case scenario. As JRM mentioned the 13F filed in Feb shows 323.2MM WFC shares help by Berkshire which is a reduction of 15%. Combine that with the excessive selling in the past month or so (compared to other banks) , and combined with WB's comments at the AGM, this is my less-than-educated guess.

 

I have no idea if Uncle Warren is selling, however WFC seems likely to lose a lot of money in the short term, and the actual business seems impaired in at least the medium term.  It wouldn't surprise me if WFC lost 75%+ of its value over the next 5 years.  They have too many branches, cannot grow, and their business model (taking in 0 cost checking deposits and making safe loans) seems impaired by the current marketplace for loans over the short term, and the Fed crushing their profitability with 0 or negative rates.  The fact is, with persistently high unemployment, the market for safe loans might be significantly smaller for years....that's not good for WFC.

 

 

Note:  I have no position in WFC long/short and no position via options.  I have a small position in puts on other banks.  I am not long any banks.

 

[LC]

alwaysdrawing - Thanks for the counterpoints.

[KJP]

Huntington Ingalls

Paramount Group

[Munger_Disciple]

Berkshire didn't sell any WFC stock during Q1 2020. We know this from Q1's 10-Q filing.

[Spekulatius]

I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence.

[DooDiligence]

It is interesting all the people buying WFC whereas WB was selling.

 

(And WB may be fully exiting his WFC stake - if you recall during the annual meeting he mentioned "We don't trim positions")

 

Makes me fear I am missing something big and obvious.

 

 

 

Is WFC fundamentally broken? For him to unload WFC and not BAC means it must be WFC specific. Yes WFC is like toxic waste right now in the banking world, but it is also like half of TBV and very well capitalized. He bought into BAC when not only was it toxic but also had tens of billions of legal liabilities. Is he saying it was possible to turn around BAC but not WFC? Did he like the odds of BAC in 2011 more than WFC today? BofA was not too much lower in total market cap then what WFC is today, and capital levels at all these banks are much better now.

 

Or does he think it's an industry wide problem, interest rates, great depression? In that case he should be selling both off.

 

He bought into airlines.

Then sold out of airlines.

 

Personally, I think he's lost it.

 

We'll see.

[DooDiligence]

I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence.

 

I doubled my ABEV today.

 

;)

[Spekulatius]

I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence.

 

I doubled my ABEV today.

 

;)

 

The thesis for ABEV is as follows:

1) The stock is down more than 50%.

2) The stock  has never been they cheap in terms of P/S (as far as I can see)

3) The balance sheet is very strong (net cash)

4) Most importantly: Brazilians like beer (courtesy Of DooDiligence)

[rb]

I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence.

 

I doubled my ABEV today.

 

;)

You should send Spek a case of beer to help with the coming pain  ;)

 

I kid.

[DooDiligence]

I added to CMCSA, TRV, ORI, VIVHY. Started new positions in HDS and ABEV after some DooDiligence.

 

I doubled my ABEV today.

 

;)

You should send Spek a case of beer to help with the coming pain  ;)

 

I kid.

 

;D

 

They've maintained double digit ROA's & ROE's for more than a decade & returned gobs of money to shareholders.

 

That said, volumes are down double digits & looking worse for the coming months.

 

People will eventually start boozing it up again & I think ABEV's clean balance sheet should hold them over.

 

I made money on ABEV before with a cost basis that was slightly more than double what I own now.

(historical performance is no guarantee of future returns but...)

 

edit: We'll see if I can still defend the purchase in a year  ???

[Lance]

ESRT, VNO and WFC

 

Thanks

Lance

[Gregmal]

Hardly the deal of a lifetime, but I finally threw in the towel and bought a few shares of Costco at 295.