Guest Schwab711 Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will. they work 3x per day, so I realize that there can be variance from a straight line move. I have played with it before and I am aware that it can be a wild ride. I am just making a relatively small directional bet over a recovery period. As a heads up. In general, they don't work as well in highly volatile markets because a lot of the market movement tends to occur in 'gaps' and not during market hours.
plato1976 Posted April 1, 2020 Posted April 1, 2020 A few bad news related to this name, not sure if fully priced in: 1. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-banks-dividends/uk-banks-scrap-dividends-on-coronavirus-fears-pressure-on-bonuses-idUSKBN21I3AN UK banks halt dividends due to gov pressure. They are reasonably capitalized so not sure if US banks will follow 2. I think more importantly, there is some worry about mortgage impairment recently that's getting intense. Seems we need to regulator to lighten up some regulation so banks don't need to take a big hit to their capital when they provide some relief to borrowers in temporary difficulty (like 3 months) -- without it banks may dive WFC
chrispy Posted April 1, 2020 Posted April 1, 2020 Bought back my MA position and more which was sold about 15% higher
Gregmal Posted April 1, 2020 Posted April 1, 2020 Bought a little more MSGN at 8.85. Who the f knows here anymore.
JRM Posted April 1, 2020 Posted April 1, 2020 backing up the truck on KMI. I'm going down with the captain.
LC Posted April 1, 2020 Posted April 1, 2020 Dipped the toe twice in WFC yesterday and today; Bought some T today as well. My assumption is the SP500 will eventually hit 2000. I am averaging my cash position down to that point, so that's the plan I guess ;D
gjangal Posted April 1, 2020 Posted April 1, 2020 Looking to buy ANET, PAYX, BKNG. Haven’t sold anything yet, but I feel this is going to prolong for a while, so buying slowly and in small quantities .Especially valuations may not return to where they were as markets have to price in second wave and 3rd wave scenarios in the absence of a vaccine. Good time for people with substantial cash as they can accumulate slowly SQ and TTD look risky to me as small businesses and ad budgets return slowly. Better to buy stronger players. Thinking about that
LC Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 I have also been looking at Paychex but the industry does have low-ish barriers to entry. It does not seem like a large value-add although I will admit there is stickiness.
wescobrk Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 Dipped the toe twice in WFC yesterday and today; Bought some T today as well. My assumption is the SP500 will eventually hit 2000. I am averaging my cash position down to that point, so that's the plan I guess ;D That is the question of the day (S&P hitting 2k). Gundlach thinks we will retest the lows. Marks thinks we are headed lower. There is already talk of another infrastructure bill of $2 trillion. I guess it all comes down to if the country "reopens" in May. If we do, then we may not get down to 2k but if we don't reopen by mid May then it will probably go south of 2k and south of 1700. The market is probably discounting a May reopening is the only reason why we never went lower than 35% from the peak.
gjangal Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 I have also been looking at Paychex but the industry does have low-ish barriers to entry. It does not seem like a large value-add although I will admit there is stickiness. PAYX I am still going through the numbers, they still have low double digit growth, good roic and looks like they are using their balance sheet well, cons are obviously they are skewed towards small and medium sized businesses which are going to take a hit. Maybe stock already reflects that. I do a general check of numbers and take a judgement call as to whether the business can maintain competitive position, market opportunity. .Growth/fall in revenue usually reflects that. Asset light business models are very attractive . I also willingly will pay up to 40 pe for good growing businesses in this rate env
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 SHOP, AER, RCL, TSLA, PK, STNE, AEO, FB, HEI, ROKU, TDG (Keep in mind I have 30% in cash)
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them.
james22 Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 You're probably aware but BAM split 3:2 today. Actually up 4% today. BAM Thanks Lance Seeking Alpha showed/shows BAM as -30%. I got a little excited for a second.
Lance Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 You're probably aware but BAM split 3:2 today. Actually up 4% today. BAM Thanks Lance Yeah, limit order that was in place triggered. Thanks Lance
TrashIsCash Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 FPH (Five Points Holdings) +Spun out of LNR, prematurely, in 2017. +Owns three massive, but irreplaceable, tracts of land in: Irvine (Orange County) Valencia (N. LA County) Candlestick/ SF Shipyards (San Francisco) Valencia, FKA, Newhall Ranch, went through years of litigation, but just started selling finished lots three months ago. The ownership structure is confusing. They are well-capitalized. They will ride out the storm and be in great shape when things calm down. The CEO is highly-regarded and is a hero.... Last week, he was driving around Orange County, buying black market N95 masks with his own money to deliver to hospitals.
TrashIsCash Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 +Blue collar mobile home parks in the Midwest. If they are bought right and operated well, they are coupon clippers.
alwaysdrawing Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year.
matts Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours
Cevian Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 3 April 2020: Never thought I'd be able to purchase FFH again at CAD385
alwaysdrawing Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 DHT EURN Can anyone spell C-O-N-T-A-N-G-O? Asymmetric play on crude storage squeeze. Oil market ain't buying the lies Trumpy is selling them. Dalal--we are seeing the world in a very similar way these days. Ships going to earn their market cap in a year. You guys are 2 weeks late on the tanker trade. Tanker storage does not make much sense at anywhere near today's day rates. You really need oil to reverse everything it has done in the last 24 hours Skate where the puck is going. Nothing changed by Trump's tweets except a spike to spot. I don't see how there won't be a massive oversupply of crude for the foreseeable future. Day rates move around, but the overall thesis is pretty good if you believe there will be a significant oversupply. Not a major fan of tankers FWIW, but think the trade makes sense.
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