LC Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 I agree with your second post regarding forced selling. It can be a great opportunity to buy shares in companies you know; and have a long-time horizon for expected holding. It can be difficult to identify forced sellers in most cases (COVID being an exception I suppose) On your former post I too am still thinking through. For example Visa is up the last day or two and so are my ITM calls. Would I have been better off with OTM calls? I don't know for sure. I raised some cash but have not put all of it to use, so raising even more cash using OTM calls may not have been useful (at least as of today). On the other hand there's more leverage with the OTM calls. Also I am trying to think through the various scenarios: down/flat/upwards market in two years. The second and third order effects (i.e. what you do with the $$ raised via this strategy) are difficult to imagine.
gary17 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying and TSLA up 10% - factories shut and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people stock market doesn't make sense to me!
estoybien Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying and TSLA up 10% - factories shut and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people stock market doesn't make sense to me! Government $$$, that's why!
Uccmal Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying and TSLA up 10% - factories shut and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people stock market doesn't make sense to me! No sh*t. The stimulus plans to me indicate how dire this is. The stimulus plans are stop gaps at best and meant to keep certain segments of the economy from insolvency, and starvation. Thats hardly thriving. People are so damn stupid and gullible.
Uccmal Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying and TSLA up 10% - factories shut and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people stock market doesn't make sense to me! Government $$$, that's why! It will be gone in a flash.
estoybien Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 No sh*t. The stimulus plans to me indicate how dire this is. The stimulus plans are stop gaps at best and meant to keep certain segments of the economy from insolvency, and starvation. Thats hardly thriving. People are so damn stupid and gullible. Boeing is going to get a lot of money, and crucially with no govt equity. That’s significant and no mere flash in the pan.
DTEJD1997 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 Hey all: I bought some Jerash Holdings today, (JRSH). Was kicking myself that I didn't get some the other day when it collapsed to $3.60/share, but nibbled at some today. These guys have a fortress balance sheet, and I think they are well poised to grow the business when things get back to normal. I will definitely be buying more if it goes down further.
alwaysdrawing Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 Backing up the truck on puts. Adding to existing positions on retail stores, exterminator services, dental equipment makers, a life insurer, a highly levered car maker, and long dated market puts. The stimulus is unfortunately likely to be the last good news coming in the next few weeks. We will see unemployment numbers tomorrow (estimate of 1.4 million job losses last week, high estimate of 4 million. I'd guess higher than even that, and will continue to get worse). NYC still has at least 3 weeks until peak cases, and there are new hot spots in GA, LA, TX and more. The idea that things would be back to normal by Easter borders on the farcical. The decreasing new cases in Italy is a second derivative effect, and it is a good sign, though not nearly as good as the market thinks. Cases are still increasing, and we still do not know when Italy can re-open on a partial basis, to say nothing of a return to normal. If there is a partial return, there will likely be future outbreaks that need to be managed. That will hopefully be manageable, however there will still be a very significant double digit hit to the economy in the good case. $1200/person stimulus will not even cover a month of rent or mortgage for most Americans. Folks haven't even had to make one rent payment during this crisis--April 1st will be the first one. Businesses are starting to run out of cash, and are making plans to lay off employees and are considering bankruptcy as an option. It's basically impossible to overnight go to 0 revenue, and SBA loans and enhanced unemployment insurance might be helpful, but will not structurally fix the issues of over-capacity in many industries. Similar to GM in 2008, any bailouts will likely still result in bankruptcy if the business operations cannot return to a sustainable level quickly, and unfortunately, the health crisis is still likely to get much worse before it gets better. Big picture, I think we will be facing partial lockdown for many months, as any "return to normal" will mean an overwhelmed health care system. The stats have been remarkably similar so far, with 80% mild cases, 15% requiring hospitalization, and 5% requiring ICU. If the health care system is overwhelmed and care must be rationed, many more of the 5% ICU and some of the 15% hospitalization cases will become deaths. That's the importance of flattening the curve, and we will see in NY over the next few weeks what can happen if that doesn't happen. I see a long term significant shock to the economy, and do not see any type of V shape recovery in the short or medium term. I think we see much more pain ahead in markets, and worse, in health outcomes. Hope I'm wrong, but I see dark clouds in the immediate future.
longlake95 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 Backing up the truck on puts. Adding to existing positions on retail stores, exterminator services, dental equipment makers, a life insurer, a highly levered car maker, and long dated market puts. The stimulus is unfortunately likely to be the last good news coming in the next few weeks. We will see unemployment numbers tomorrow (estimate of 1.4 million job losses last week, high estimate of 4 million. I'd guess higher than even that, and will continue to get worse). NYC still has at least 3 weeks until peak cases, and there are new hot spots in GA, LA, TX and more. The idea that things would be back to normal by Easter borders on the farcical. The decreasing new cases in Italy is a second derivative effect, and it is a good sign, though not nearly as good as the market thinks. Cases are still increasing, and we still do not know when Italy can re-open on a partial basis, to say nothing of a return to normal. If there is a partial return, there will likely be future outbreaks that need to be managed. That will hopefully be manageable, however there will still be a very significant double digit hit to the economy in the good case. $1200/person stimulus will not even cover a month of rent or mortgage for most Americans. Folks haven't even had to make one rent payment during this crisis--April 1st will be the first one. Businesses are starting to run out of cash, and are making plans to lay off employees and are considering bankruptcy as an option. It's basically impossible to overnight go to 0 revenue, and SBA loans and enhanced unemployment insurance might be helpful, but will not structurally fix the issues of over-capacity in many industries. Similar to GM in 2008, any bailouts will likely still result in bankruptcy if the business operations cannot return to a sustainable level quickly, and unfortunately, the health crisis is still likely to get much worse before it gets better. Big picture, I think we will be facing partial lockdown for many months, as any "return to normal" will mean an overwhelmed health care system. The stats have been remarkably similar so far, with 80% mild cases, 15% requiring hospitalization, and 5% requiring ICU. If the health care system is overwhelmed and care must be rationed, many more of the 5% ICU and some of the 15% hospitalization cases will become deaths. That's the importance of flattening the curve, and we will see in NY over the next few weeks what can happen if that doesn't happen. I see a long term significant shock to the economy, and do not see any type of V shape recovery in the short or medium term. I think we see much more pain ahead in markets, and worse, in health outcomes. Hope I'm wrong, but I see dark clouds in the immediate future. to be clear...are you buying puts to hedge your holdings if we go down. Or are you selling puts to back in to some positions if we go down?
alwaysdrawing Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 Backing up the truck on puts. Adding to existing positions on retail stores, exterminator services, dental equipment makers, a life insurer, a highly levered car maker, and long dated market puts. The stimulus is unfortunately likely to be the last good news coming in the next few weeks. We will see unemployment numbers tomorrow (estimate of 1.4 million job losses last week, high estimate of 4 million. I'd guess higher than even that, and will continue to get worse). NYC still has at least 3 weeks until peak cases, and there are new hot spots in GA, LA, TX and more. The idea that things would be back to normal by Easter borders on the farcical. The decreasing new cases in Italy is a second derivative effect, and it is a good sign, though not nearly as good as the market thinks. Cases are still increasing, and we still do not know when Italy can re-open on a partial basis, to say nothing of a return to normal. If there is a partial return, there will likely be future outbreaks that need to be managed. That will hopefully be manageable, however there will still be a very significant double digit hit to the economy in the good case. $1200/person stimulus will not even cover a month of rent or mortgage for most Americans. Folks haven't even had to make one rent payment during this crisis--April 1st will be the first one. Businesses are starting to run out of cash, and are making plans to lay off employees and are considering bankruptcy as an option. It's basically impossible to overnight go to 0 revenue, and SBA loans and enhanced unemployment insurance might be helpful, but will not structurally fix the issues of over-capacity in many industries. Similar to GM in 2008, any bailouts will likely still result in bankruptcy if the business operations cannot return to a sustainable level quickly, and unfortunately, the health crisis is still likely to get much worse before it gets better. Big picture, I think we will be facing partial lockdown for many months, as any "return to normal" will mean an overwhelmed health care system. The stats have been remarkably similar so far, with 80% mild cases, 15% requiring hospitalization, and 5% requiring ICU. If the health care system is overwhelmed and care must be rationed, many more of the 5% ICU and some of the 15% hospitalization cases will become deaths. That's the importance of flattening the curve, and we will see in NY over the next few weeks what can happen if that doesn't happen. I see a long term significant shock to the economy, and do not see any type of V shape recovery in the short or medium term. I think we see much more pain ahead in markets, and worse, in health outcomes. Hope I'm wrong, but I see dark clouds in the immediate future. to be clear...are you buying puts to hedge your holdings if we go down. Or are you selling puts to back in to some positions if we go down? I am buying puts as speculative bets on price declines on companies in which I own no stock.
no_free_lunch Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying and TSLA up 10% - factories shut and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people stock market doesn't make sense to me! I don't know about BA / TSLA but WMT going down makes sense. It is over 20x earnings for a retailer. Sure they will get a temporary bump due to hoarding but if the economy gets as bad as people believe, then walmart and competitors will eventually take huge hits as well.
ERICOPOLY Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying and TSLA up 10% - factories shut and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people stock market doesn't make sense to me! I don't know about BA / TSLA but WMT going down makes sense. It is over 20x earnings for a retailer. Sure they will get a temporary bump due to hoarding but if the economy gets as bad as people believe, then walmart and competitors will eventually take huge hits as well. Yeah but... I wanted a gift for my son's birthday which is in two days. I want to buy him camping supplies. Can I go to REI? No, it isn't an essential business. Can I go to Walmart? Yes, it is essential because they sell groceries, hardware, and have a pharmacy. And... yes, camping gear. They are going to get so much more business now in all categories -- it's not just about hoarding toilet paper, pasta, and milk.
Foreign Tuffett Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 why is Boeing up 30% - world not flying and TSLA up 10% - factories shut and Walmart down 5% - actually open and feeding people stock market doesn't make sense to me! I don't know about BA / TSLA but WMT going down makes sense. It is over 20x earnings for a retailer. Sure they will get a temporary bump due to hoarding but if the economy gets as bad as people believe, then walmart and competitors will eventually take huge hits as well. Yeah but... I wanted a gift for my son's birthday which is in two days. I want to buy him camping supplies. Can I go to REI? No, it isn't an essential business. Can I go to Walmart? Yes, it is essential because they sell groceries, hardware, and have a pharmacy. And... yes, camping gear. They are going to get so much more business now in all categories -- it's not just about hoarding toilet paper, pasta, and milk. Yes, this is exactly right. I got off a phone call a few hours ago with someone who was complaining that their local Walmart was sold out of a multitude of non grocery items. This includes camping type stuff, as survivalist types have gone into panic mode and bought up all the guns, ammo, hunting supplies, camping stoves, flashlights, etc.
kab60 Posted March 25, 2020 Posted March 25, 2020 More AMA Group... Price chart makes one puke, but I think it's a potential 5-10 bagger, and unless I've completely missed something, I think I've rarely seen a selloff as crazy as this one. Might wanna write it up. I am a little bit concerned about the debt covenants. My stomach is weaker than yours, I puked this out when it was 0.57AUD, now at 0.175AUD. It trades like an option now. Well, you did well selling. I averaged down a couple of times - and doubled it today. Ugh. Someone mailed me to get my view, quick view here (all very back of the envelope): From the recent CC (from the CEO): We have a net leverage ratio where we can't exceed 3.25 in the first year. That doesn't get tested until the end of this year. And everything is on the basis of around run rate and those sorts of things. So we're comfortable with that at the moment. And based on those, so no concerns on that. So I think end of last Q they had around 300m drawn on their 375m debt facilities and 50m cash so 250m net debr vs guidance of some 75m ebitda. So obviously close and obviously things have evolved for the worse with corona-virus (if you go to AMAs website they sent out a note to customers, clients etc.), but they're still in business - this isn't retail. And there might be pent up demand from hails storms that hit Australia. But I think what's important here is the comment on run rate which I assume means that they'll be able to include, among other things, 17m in expected synergies (they have alluded that it will be higher, so perhaps they can bump it up). Either way I think there's a real risk that they breach those covenants - but I also expect lenders to be willing to waive those given the special circumstances. Very few banks will want to write off a loan six months in - and optically it would look extremely bad. As for valuation, with a marketcap of 125m and 250 net debt the price of AMA is below the price of the Smart Capital acquisition (where rumour was others were willing to pay around 320m I seem to recall) PLUS the old Ama Group. Blackstone was close to buying the whole thing for some 10xebitda while right now - if things go as planned - they might do plus 100m ebitda in their fiscal 21 so around 3,5xev/ebitda. I know it sounds almost stupid, but that would potentially imply equity upside of some 600 pct. from here. There is real risk of permanent capital impairment, but I think the risk is severly overstated and would expect them to get a waiver if they trip covenants. Last resort perhaps call Blackstone again? And I don't think things are all that dire. This is smash repair shops that should be extremely resilent since insurance pays, AND they had good answers on the call as to what needs to be improved (and it seems pretty easy to fix). CEO owns a ton of stock, three insider buys since beginning of march - post results.
kab60 Posted March 26, 2020 Posted March 26, 2020 CAMBRIA Automobiles - 2,3xEV/ebitda, midteens ROIC, founderled
Guest cherzeca Posted March 26, 2020 Posted March 26, 2020 I bought a 2 year leap on FAS, super leveraged play on banks. small investment. doing well last few days of course, but I expect banks to recover to prior levels during the holding period
Santayana Posted March 26, 2020 Posted March 26, 2020 The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 26, 2020 Posted March 26, 2020 Bought more puts. Sold another 3% or so of my longs. The data says I'm right to still be concerned and that this gets worse before it gets better. The stock market says "f*ck the recession and the accelerating pandemic - we'll trade at average multiples of trailing earnings that are guaranteed to drop dramatically" One of us will be right but it certainly sucks to be me right now.
Guest cherzeca Posted March 26, 2020 Posted March 26, 2020 The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will. they work 3x per day, so I realize that there can be variance from a straight line move. I have played with it before and I am aware that it can be a wild ride. I am just making a relatively small directional bet over a recovery period.
Gregmal Posted March 26, 2020 Posted March 26, 2020 Bought a few SDS calls into the close. Kind of hoping to hedge out and "get ahead" of those looking to "get ahead" of those getting out of the market before the weekend...
dpetrescu Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 Here’s my prediction: In 10 years, all of us will still be in here looking for things to invest in. Will stock prices will be higher or lower in 2030 compared to today? Market tops and bottoms don’t exist in real time, they only exist in retrospect. I’m willing to guess prices will be a whole lot higher and that 10-20% will be barely noticeable. I’m also willing to guess most of the appreciation will be mostly due to a handful of random days. I’ll also guess we shouldn’t be surprised that prices will be lower in the next month or so than today. The only conclusion I come up with is keep buying and holding, don’t trade the volatility. You miss one or two days and you miss out. The only question is how to raise funds and how to manage the buying based on the funds you have and how long should you buy heavily?
scorpioncapital Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 Here’s my prediction: In 10 years, all of us will still be in here looking for things to invest in. Will stock prices will be higher or lower in 2030 compared to today? Market tops and bottoms don’t exist in real time, they only exist in retrospect. I’m willing to guess prices will be a whole lot higher and that 10-20% will be barely noticeable. I’m also willing to guess most of the appreciation will be mostly due to a handful of random days. I’ll also guess we shouldn’t be surprised that prices will be lower in the next month or so than today. The only conclusion I come up with is keep buying and holding, don’t trade the volatility. You miss one or two days and you miss out. The only question is how to raise funds and how to manage the buying based on the funds you have and how long should you buy heavily? If it will be higher due to inflation it's a nothing burger.
orthopa Posted March 27, 2020 Posted March 27, 2020 The daily "reset" feature of those leveraged ETFs means they won't always behave the way you think they will. Can you expand more on this? Is it along the lines of the decay with the leveraged vxx etf/ns?
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