Viking Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Bought a bunch of stuff this morning. Now 35% invested and 65% cash. - 11% Berkshire (gives exposure to Apple, US financials, insurance, utilities) - 4% google, microsoft, facebook - 2% fortis gas (TSE) - 1% Bell (TSE), Verizon, at&t, nike, disney, starbucks, General dynamics, abbvie, suncor - 0.5% west fraser timber (TSE), rogers sugar (TSE) Will buy more on weakness...
flesh Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 nc, tse, brk.b, bk Nc's ev/ebit or ebitda is 1.7-1.9 Tse at less than 3x/mkt cap normalized fcf. Big divvy and buyback. Lots of cash. Insiders buying at current price.
Lance Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Small adds to: D, DUK, PPL, SO, UTG ABBV, THW ADM, MO, PM T DIS BAC, BX, PBCT, WFC PH DD XOM New position in Heico and small adds to a few Vanguard funds Thanks Lance
gokou3 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Added to BPY. Even if retail and LP are both $0, the office NAV alone is still above the current market cap.
CorpRaider Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Small adds to: D, DUK, PPL, SO, UTG ABBV, THW ADM, MO, PM T DIS BAC, BX, PBCT, WFC PH DD XOM New position in Heico and small adds to a few Vanguard funds Thanks Lance Yeah I was just looking at those UTEs for grandma. WTF is up with those yields. Seems like D is going to maybe issue some stock "for liquidity" but I didn't see anything on DUK. If memory serves, you crushed it if you bought utilities during the great depression.
shhughes1116 Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 The price action has been pretty...brutal...in utilities. Hard to say if there is any relationship, but I have often wondered about the relationship between Seeking Alpha and certain "income producing stocks" in the market. A lot of the content on Seeking Alpha, in the recent past, has been pedaling all sorts of "income producing stocks", even as they reached nose-bleed levels. I have to think a lot of weak-hands were pushed into these stocks, and are now fleeing, hence the awful price action.
JRM Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 How much longer are regulated utilities going to be allowed to over-earn? They have never made more money between the agreed rate of return (typically close to 10%) and the cost of capital. When taxes were lowered they were required to pass the savings on to the customer. When rate makers get wise they will go after this margin, too. Back in the day utilities were a growth industry. It started with refrigeration and then air conditioning. Maybe electric vehicles will be the next great growth phase, otherwise we are in a flat to declining load growth. I tend to think EVs will be the next growth phase. With that said, PEs of 30 are probably not justified for your average utility even with low interest rates. I wonder how many pension funds are getting annihilated right now?
texual Posted March 23, 2020 Posted March 23, 2020 Berkshire Hathaway B Bank of America IBM Mastercard Seritage Growth Properties
Castanza Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Have been trading BRK and GOOG the past two weeks with good success with about 20% of my cash pile while also establishing a long position. A bottom is a best guess at this point. Near term, the only thing that seems likely to continue is high volatility. Why not use this to your advantage on stocks you would feel comfortable holding? Anyone else on the trading?
LC Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Have been trading BRK and GOOG the past two weeks with good success with about 20% of my cash pile while also establishing a long position. A bottom is a best guess at this point. Near term, the only thing that seems likely to continue is high volatility. Why not use this to your advantage on stocks you would feel comfortable holding? Anyone else on the trading? Kind of. Doing the same in terms of establishing long position. Then selling call options against the position on big up days, and closing them out on down days.
vinod1 Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Have been trading BRK and GOOG the past two weeks with good success with about 20% of my cash pile while also establishing a long position. A bottom is a best guess at this point. Near term, the only thing that seems likely to continue is high volatility. Why not use this to your advantage on stocks you would feel comfortable holding? Anyone else on the trading? Yes! Moved a few positions from stock to LEAPS, to free up cash to play the volatility, protect downside in case I am underestimating the severity while also locking in attractive prices if there is a sudden positive catalyst. This strategy has been very profitable in 2008-2009 but then the volatility is so much more at that time. From purely financial perspective, let us hope the volatility lasts for some time. My daily prayer: Lord, I am not asking for a bull market and I am not asking for a bear market, but is it friggin too much to ask for some volatility. (Minus the virus part) Vinod
LC Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Have been trading BRK and GOOG the past two weeks with good success with about 20% of my cash pile while also establishing a long position. A bottom is a best guess at this point. Near term, the only thing that seems likely to continue is high volatility. Why not use this to your advantage on stocks you would feel comfortable holding? Anyone else on the trading? Yes! Moved a few positions from stock to LEAPS, to free up cash to play the volatility, protect downside in case I am underestimating the severity while also locking in attractive prices if there is a sudden positive catalyst. This strategy has been very profitable in 2008-2009 but then the volatility is so much more at that time. From purely financial perspective, let us hope the volatility lasts for some time. Vinod Hi vinod, Are you buying LEAPS ATM? I am doing a similar strategy buying deep ITM.
vinod1 Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Have been trading BRK and GOOG the past two weeks with good success with about 20% of my cash pile while also establishing a long position. A bottom is a best guess at this point. Near term, the only thing that seems likely to continue is high volatility. Why not use this to your advantage on stocks you would feel comfortable holding? Anyone else on the trading? Yes! Moved a few positions from stock to LEAPS, to free up cash to play the volatility, protect downside in case I am underestimating the severity while also locking in attractive prices if there is a sudden positive catalyst. This strategy has been very profitable in 2008-2009 but then the volatility is so much more at that time. From purely financial perspective, let us hope the volatility lasts for some time. Vinod Hi vinod, Are you buying LEAPS ATM? I am doing a similar strategy buying deep ITM. Hi LC, Did not fully flush out my strategy. With kids home, too little time to think! But I bought $180 strike out of the money BRK 2022 calls yesterday. Exited long term BRK stock today. Planning to do opportunistic changes as LEAP spreads are pretty high and I have to put in a few bids at different strike prices before something gets executed. Vinod
LC Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Thanks for sharing (and good luck with the little ones/your sanity ;D)
vinod1 Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 The way I see it serves two purposes 1. If we get some extreme tail event and BRK ends up at say $120 for example, a deep in the money LEAP would have resulted in a pretty big loss. Not really protecting me, other than freeing up some cash. 2. If market runs away while I am playing trading volatility and have higher cash allocation, the calls would make up for that. Vinod
Uccmal Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Trying to buy puts on MA, and a couple of others. The implied volatility is way up. The cost is more than the other day, when the stock was higher. Option sellers are expecting a quick reversion right back down. Todays market rise is in response to the expected stimulus plans. Once they come out and eveyrone realizes the economy is operating at 70% things may really drop. I am sitting out Leaps for now until this volatility settles down to a lower level.
vinod1 Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 Trying to buy puts on MA, and a couple of others. The implied volatility is way up. The cost is more than the other day, when the stock was higher. Option sellers are expecting a quick reversion right back down. Todays market rise is in response to the expected stimulus plans. Once they come out and eveyrone realizes the economy is operating at 70% things may really drop. I am sitting out Leaps for now until this volatility settles down to a lower level. Hi Al, Good to see you posting again after a long time! Agree Leaps are expensive, putting in stink bids hoping to get execution, but not much luck. Vinod
LC Posted March 24, 2020 Posted March 24, 2020 The way I see it serves two purposes 1. If we get some extreme tail event and BRK ends up at say $120 for example, a deep in the money LEAP would have resulted in a pretty big loss. Not really protecting me, other than freeing up some cash. 2. If market runs away while I am playing trading volatility and have higher cash allocation, the calls would make up for that. Vinod I hear what you're saying with (1). Perhaps I should rethink my options. I figure, I'd rather have that intrinsic value stored up. If I buy OOM options it frees up a bit more cash; but my exposure is very conditional. I'm always a bit nervous with OOM options because in the case of (2), it seems like they are only useful if prices run up enough. And you have to sell at the right point i.e. maximum upwards movement and volatility - do you find these OOM calls have a limited lifespan where you can make decent money? Or do you plan to hold until expiration and count on being right on both direction & timing? You're right on volatility - LEAPs past 2021 were very expensive today.
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