What are you buying today?

[Foreign Tuffett]

Open the market!

[KJP]

Rosetta Stone

FRP Holdings

 

Developers seem iffy in this environment. Might be difficult to fill/lease up buildings.

 

FRP has largely moved on from the warehouse business, which it sold at a great price.  I believe the DC and other residential projects they're funding will be quite valuable over the next few years and, most importantly, they've got a great balance sheet and apparently quite patient and competent capital allocators in charge.  The timing of my purchases and sales has historically been rather poor -- I have no talent for trading, so I can't vouch for the timing of buying (or selling) right now.

[alwaysdrawing]

FRP has largely moved on from the warehouse business, which it sold at a great price.  I believe the DC and other residential projects they're funding will be quite valuable over the next few years and, most importantly, they've got a great balance sheet and apparently quite patient and competent capital allocators in charge.  The timing of my purchases and sales has historically been rather poor -- I have no talent for trading, so I can't vouch for the timing of buying (or selling) right now.

 

KJP, you've been helpful to me in the past....don't you think there will be better opportunities than this over the next few months???

[KJP]

FRP has largely moved on from the warehouse business, which it sold at a great price.  I believe the DC and other residential projects they're funding will be quite valuable over the next few years and, most importantly, they've got a great balance sheet and apparently quite patient and competent capital allocators in charge.  The timing of my purchases and sales has historically been rather poor -- I have no talent for trading, so I can't vouch for the timing of buying (or selling) right now.

 

KJP, you've been helpful to me in the past....don't you think there will be better opportunities than this over the next few months???

 

Yes, I do.  But for various reasons unrelated to any efforts at market timing, I was around 75% cash in February.  I've been way too early to start buying, but I'm not close to all in right now, nor would I recommend anyone doing so.  I also have the luxury of not investing other people's money and not needing for decades any of the money I have invested. 

 

I'm looking to collect companies with good businesses and solid balance sheets and pick up shares in dribs and drabs, without any real effort to call the bottom, which I cannot do.  But I am going to get even more patient and discerning in what I want to own and take the opportunity to high grade my portfolio if I can. 

 

Your warnings have been spot on so far, so your approach may well be smarter than mine.  But I'm curious what you think about something like Williams (WMB).  It's hard to discern any decline in U.S. domestic natural gas usage, even during the GFC.  So, what would you pay to own it now? 

[alwaysdrawing]

But I'm curious what you think about something like Williams (WMB).  It's hard to discern any decline in U.S. domestic natural gas usage, even during the GFC.  So, what would you pay to own it now? 

 

Invert it--what do you think the upside is? 

 

I think there will be many, many opportunities for sure thing multiple bag winners on the long side before long....stuff like WMB holds no interest to me, where even in a good case of the world where things return to normal, it doubles?  At best, I'd say wait until the horizon isn't looking much darker in the immediate future.

 

Risk assets still have not sold off much compared to where I think things will go.

[Gregmal]

small adds to DD, MSG and reasonable size add the BRK. Use that cash Warren

[LC]

V and Brk.

[KJP]

 

 

I think there will be many, many opportunities for sure thing multiple bag winners on the long side before long

 

You may well be right.  I agree with you that most people mental models of what is likely going to happen are just beginning to change from minor disturbance to full Italy-like shutdown.

 

I hope you post your long ideas when they arrive.

 

EDIT:  Rather than "most people," I should have said the expectations of the people in my social circle -- mid 30's - mid 40's professionals with youngish children in a large northeastern city and its surrounding suburbs.  They are either ready to or willing to accept closing all schools and public venues for weeks. But they are also the type of people who can handle childcare on their own and don't depend on wages and tips to put food on their table and gas in the car every week.

[alwaysdrawing]

You may well be right.  I agree with you that most people's mental models of what is likely going to happen are just beginning to change from minor disturbance to full Italy-like shutdown.

 

I hope you post your long ideas when they arrive.

 

I hope so too...

 

We all have a rough road ahead, and I don't mean with respect to investing.  That said, there are still companies going to 0 that have puts available, and people are still saying this is just the flu. 

 

Going long seems very far away to me.

[Castanza]

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent your dry powder can last."

 

V, WM, UPS, CMCSA, T, BRK, SBUX, MSG, GRBK, (WFC, BAC, USB) all on the top 10 list. Starting to feel like the dog who caught the car and doesn't know what do do (buy)

 

Bonus check comes in this month :)

 

 

[wabuffo]

FWIW - bot a couple of slugs of KNOP at $10.94 and then $10.40.    Its a C-Corp oil tanker company that is basically a floating pipeline between offshore drilling rigs and port oil terminals.  At $10.40 - it yields 20%.  Reported earnings last night - everything looks fine, conference call mid-day today that I will be listening to.

 

I think the selling is overdone - but what do I know.... it could still go lower, selling feels pretty indiscriminate.

 

wabuffo

 

[deleuze68]

Bought VFV (S&P index fund) using about 5% of cash reserve. Never bought the broad index before but decided to dive in today with a starter position.

[Ross812]

So I've been buying SPX leaps and in CDs and MINT etc. for the last few years. I have been trailing the market by about 5%. So I've been 96-97% bonds 3-4% options. I started transitioning a little into equities today. Dipped my toe in with some JPM, KMI, WFC, and BRK-B. 3% total purchase. I think this has more room to go. S&P 2000 i'll be buying a lot more.

[alwaysdrawing]

Selling some calls on Vol, and buying more medium to long term puts on banks, health insurers, hotel operators, restaurants, airlines, junk bonds, market indexes.

 

Market still doesn't understand the risk of a pandemic.  Surprised the market isn't down more as this becomes more of a sure thing.

 

From 3 days ago.

 

Selling some VIX calls, adding puts on some life insurers and banks.

 

Market still doesn't understand the risk of a pandemic.

[fishwithwings]

Does UDFI report?

[CorpRaider]

Just a little:  BRK.B, LAMR, VNQ

[DocSnowball]

VOO, FXI and INDA

Dollar cost averaging over the next few weeks

[alwaysdrawing]

VOO, FXI and INDA

Dollar cost averaging over the next few weeks

 

FXI could lose 90+%.

 

I have hundreds of puts on FXI

[Viking]

VZ, T.TO, GOOG, PFE, BRK, SAP.TO

[rmitz]

I bought some ATSG for the first time in many years.  It was down ~50% from the high.

[no_free_lunch]

GD.  People are still going to buy weapon systems on a go forward basis, corona virus or no corona virus, doesn't make a difference.

[Uccmal]

Al, glad to have your input. I agree on the quality component. Rather buy top shelf stuff when the liquor store is going out of business, rather than well liquor.

 

However, I am slightly less pessimistic. I am not as confident we will see 50% corrections from here, so I am averaging my cowardice on the way down. I think now is the time for those who say, "I've always wanted to own XYZ, but it's always so expensive!" to at least nibble. At least, that is what I am doing.

 

I hear you.  For a few of the names I mentioned 50% lower is not that far back in time.  I have “nibbled” on HD, V, and FB.  The others need to be significantly cheaper for me to really load up.  If I don’t get fills, I will sit it out.  I have been fully invested since 1997 so it’s not as if I am missing out.  Just riding the elevator back down and back up again (perhaps).

 

Well, maybe I was totally off on this one  ;D ;D ;D

I put another nibble in for V this morning.

 

I raised a few of my bids but dropped the number of shares.  I have about 15 orders in.  This is feeling too much like w*rk.  Got one or two fills in Canada before the ridiculous circuit breakers hit. 

 

In general, this likely gets way better (or worse depending on your perspective, before things settle down.  Without a government infusion of cash I can easily see every airline in the world, every hotel chain, cruise companies, and all the ancillary travel related businesses in bankruptcy, in short order.  Virtually every person I know who has travel plans has been cancelling them.  A friend of mine was at his rheumatologist this morning and was advised to cancel a trip to Vancouver next week.  The Doctor was cancelling a trip to Boston for a conference that would have had 16000 attendees.  My sons school runs an annual trip to Europe and they have cancelled (a week ago).  I could pull another dozen examples from my own social circle. 

 

These kinds of hits to the economy don’t come without huge pain, and there is no easy reversal.  It is totally irrelevant whether there is a real threat or not anymore.  It’s all perception shaping reality. 

[alwaysdrawing]

I raised a few of my bids but dropped the number of shares.  I have about 15 orders in.  This is feeling too much like w*rk.  Got one or two fills in Canada before the ridiculous circuit breakers hit. 

 

In general, this likely gets way better (or worse depending on your perspective, before things settle down.  Without a government infusion of cash I can easily see every airline in the world, every hotel chain, cruise companies, and all the ancillary travel related businesses in bankruptcy, in short order.  Virtually every person I know who has travel plans has been cancelling them.  A friend of mine was at his rheumatologist this morning and was advised to cancel a trip to Vancouver next week.  The Doctor was cancelling a trip to Boston for a conference that would have had 16000 attendees.  My sons school runs an annual trip to Europe and they have cancelled (a week ago).  I could pull another dozen examples from my own social circle. 

 

These kinds of hits to the economy don’t come without huge pain, and there is no easy reversal.  It is totally irrelevant whether there is a real threat or not anymore.  It’s all perception shaping reality.

 

You think Iran is digging burial pits that can be seen from space because of perception of risk?

 

WASHINGTON POST

Coronavirus burial pits so vast they’re visible from space

Iranian authorities began digging a pair of trenches for victims just days after the government disclosed the initial outbreak. Together, their lengths are that of a football field.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/iran-coronavirus-outbreak-graves/

 

 

The government will not be bailing out common shareholders.....how can you people not see this?

[nspo]

Buying some long-term compounders (an outlook of 5 years or so): FB, Tencent, Baidu, ANTM, Brkb

Also, buying businesses that are acquisitive and will use the current climate to influence deal flow: Bery, (maybe MTY), and KKR for now. If anyone else has some defensive rollup ideas, I'd love to hear them.

 

 

[Sleepwell]

MTN and AMZN