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Posted

Just added to my FB position.

 

 

 

Been busy. Last week or so:

 

Wrote BRK.B puts (195 and 197.5 strikes) channeling my inner boilermaker.

 

LIF.TO

 

WEQ.DB

 

SHLD debt

 

Finally got into the SHLD bonds eh? Which ones did you buy?

Posted

 

Finally got into the SHLD bonds eh? Which ones did you buy?

 

6.625 '18s. I like the lien vs SRAC (and the way lower price). While I'm pretty sure they're undersecured at present, I think there's a chance ESL makes a credit bid with its debt higher up the capital stack for some of the things they want. If what they want is actual operating stores and they're willing to pay something around current assets for them that is very helpful, imo. I think the unsecured holdco debt has a very good chance of being a zero. I suspect the SRAC/18's will end up the fulcrum security, and I think there might be value hiding in the real estate, likely even in the RE that has been pledged for debt.

 

I realize that this sounds exactly like the thesis that equity holders had for years, so I've kept this a pretty small position. The difference (imho) is that now there is a hard catalyst - these assets are getting dealt with in the court process.

Posted

And sold some 140$ nov18 puts on FB for 5.6$, the premium is really fat. Looks like the market expects a pretty big move after earnings.

 

*EDIT* I also bought a TSLA bear call spread 300/400 MAR2019 for 47$ credit because i just love the drama.

Posted

Frommi,

 

I am interested in why you were short the DAX.  It seems quite cheap to me, from a simple statistical perspective.

 

That was my seasonality trade. I buy these puts every year on the first day of May and sell at the end of October or if the DAX goes down by 20%. Over the past 100 years this has hedged a portfolio without extra cost. Every 4-5 years the puts are 5-6 baggers. While this looks like an even trade it boosts portfolio performance by 3-4% on average and reduces drawdowns from -50% to -20%. That was also the a good way to survive the bear market of 1929->1932. I am a pretty fearfull guy and need this stuff to stay fully invested. I am sure i will look stupid for selling them one day too early on monday. :)

Posted

@Frommi DAX as in Deutscher Aktienindex?  ::)

 

So weird that would have the effect you describe. Are you sure that's not just coincidence? I mean 100 years could be to short a timeframe?

Posted

 

But why sell the German index specifically?

 

This is my personal anti-home bias. According to https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=76248 Italy would work best, but i don`t think there is an active option market for that index. But when you look at the DAX holdings there are a lot of awful, overleveraged and cyclical businesses in it. The best is that no professional investor will ever use this effect, most investors i know laugh about it or dismiss it as a statistical fluke. (Should this change, i will probably reduce my position size)

Posted

 

But why sell the German index specifically?

 

This is my personal anti-home bias. According to https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=76248 Italy would work best, but i don`t think there is an active option market for that index. But when you look at the DAX holdings there are a lot of awful, overleveraged and cyclical businesses in it. The best is that no professional investor will ever use this effect, most investors i know laugh about it or dismiss it as a statistical fluke. (Should this change, i will probably reduce my position size)

 

The DAX has been traditionally much more volatile than the US stock market. I think some future traders like trading the German Dax futures because of the high volatility, the time difference and the relatively high liquidity. The old saying still goes that when wall streets gets a cold, Frankfurt gets a pneumonia.

Posted

Added to FB , TCEHY

 

sold out of UBNT

 

I just found something interesting about tencent. TCEHY owns 48% of Epic games ( Now valued at 15bn) , which launched Fortnite.

Posted

Boilermaker,

 

I just hope that you - some day in the future - will share your experience over time with these kind of trades here on CoBF. I bet it'll be educational!

 

John,

 

Nothing profound about what I am doing.

 

I am a LTBH investor.

 

First, I use writing puts to enter positions. All my current positions were entered that way. It gives me the discipline to wait for my price. I don’t have that patience with just limit orders. Besides I get paid while waiting to be exercised, probably why I am more patient, and it lowers my basis by the put premium. A criticism would be not acquiring a position because you don’t get put to. This has only happened to me once. I wanted to acquire some MCD at $50 and was never put to. So, I missed out on a three-bagger so far.

 

Secondly, I use puts to do some trading. Usually stocks I already own and at prices I would not mind if I were put to. 80% of my positions are written when the expiration is a few days to about a month out. For the other 20% the expiration is 1-2 months out when I write the put. I am selling insurance and collecting very nice premiums, but unlike insurance, if I have to pay a claim I end up with a stock I don’t mind owning at the price I am put to.

 

Third, it is also a way to be margined in the sense if I would be exercised on all my outstanding puts I would be on margin. From 2008-2016, if I were put to on all my outstanding puts, I would have been around 25% on margin. I only ended up slightly on margin a couple times and by writing covered calls (equivalent to writing a put) I was quickly off of margin. Since about January, I have been writing puts where I would be just slightly on margin if put to on everything. Currently I am short puts on BRKB with strike prices of 200, 205, 207.50, and 210; BK with strike prices of 50; WFC with strike prices of 54; BAC with strike prices of 29, 29.50, and 30; and GILD with strike prices of 70.

 

Fourth, I also like to write puts to play risk arbitrage. For instance, when BRK was acquiring BNI I was writing at-the-money puts on BNI. If I outright bought BNI, I would have to wait till the acquisition closed to know my return. By writing puts I was setting the date when my play would be completed and what my return would be. I then followed an expiration with writing more puts. I did this till BRK closed on BNI.

 

Mike

 

If I did not already have too many open put positions, I would use writing puts to play the IBM all-cash acquisition of RHT. (I probably will after some of my open puts get past expiration.)

 

For instance, this morning you could have written RHT 170-strike puts with expiration this Friday for $1.50 per share.

 

Then on Friday you can decide what your play is for the next week.

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