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porcupine

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Everything posted by porcupine

  1. This is great work. Thank you for sharing.
  2. Was wondering if anybody with an accounting/audit background could help with this. Given the statement below found in this particular company's credit agreement, could the line of credit potentially be cancelled if this company were to receive a qualified audit opinion (or worse)? The potential qualified opinion would likely be related to their internal control procedures. Below is included in the Affirmative Covenants Section: "...audited and accompanied by a report and opinion of an independent certified public accountant of nationally recognized standing, which report and opinion shall be prepared in accordance with generally accepted auditing standards and shall not be subject to any “going concern” or like qualification or exception or any qualification or exception as to the scope of such audit;" Thanks in advance.
  3. Loved this doc. One of the co's featured was my first investment ever... got done w the intelligent investor and was looking for net nets. Got burned by a fraud. First experience displaying and acknowledging cognitive dissonance as well, which has been helpful going forward. Good research, long or short, should eventually be rewarded.
  4. Aside from the first mover advantage, what competitive edge does Chewy have?
  5. +1 on Montmorency falls. Very cool park.
  6. "Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF. Posted a deep dive on this yesterday: https://lowtideinvestments.com/2019/06/18/kontoor-brands/
  7. "Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF. Totally a short-term tailwind.
  8. Congrats. This is very inspiring. What was your portfolio strategy (e.g., all index, core satellite, all active)?
  9. Read "You Can Be A Stock Market Genius" by Joel Greenblatt. He argues that special situations tend to present opportunities for a security to be materially mispriced, and I think that most here would agree. After reading this book, track spinoffs and interesting situations that you read about in the WSJ. Just my 2 cents.
  10. https://www.cfainstitute.org/-/media/documents/study-session/2018-l1-readings.ashx?la=en&hash=CF0C95241ECE0CB2F0A4F70F94D6CBA5E3E0FB00 Section VI: Conflicts of interest B. Priority of transactions http://www.portfoliomanagement.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/CFA-code.pdf Section C: Trading 2. Priority PTSD just kicked in when I saw "Study Session 1 - Ethical and Professional Standards". Still have nightmares about this stuff.
  11. Deep value play: CCUR sold off all of their core operating assets at the end of 2017. Since then, they have been looking to deploy cash. They recently signed a letter of intent to purchase 80% of Luxemark Capital, a merchant cash advance lender. This type of business isn't viewed upon with great reverence, but the stock price of CCUR is currently pricing the acquisition at below 0. Also, the payday lending industry faces some tailwinds, as the trump administration is looking to lift Obama era regulations which restricted who payday lenders could lend to. CCUR is currently performing due dilligence under a period of exclusivity and has until January 30th to do so. They could easily walk away from this LOI. If they do this, I believe the stock price should at least converge to their assets held at fair value (adjusted for recent market developments) less their total liabilities. They also have a significant amount of operating losses which could be applied to a profitable company. If they have reason to believe that LuxeMark isn't profitable, I do not think they will go forward with the acquisition. An activist also has been increasing his stake since 2017. He now owns around 39% of the company and his uncle is on the board of directors. CCUR also has bought back a significant amount of stock (around 725,000 shares) since announcing their repurchase plan in March. Two catalysts for 2019 - CCUR walks away from the deal. Luxemark capital is profitable. Worst case scenario - Luxemark Capital isn't profitable... but the valuation of the company is already pricing this acquisition at 0. Payday lending is very risky... but the decrease in share price of this company doesn't make sense due to the relatively small amount of cash (around 11%) they are investing in this company. They also have the option of granting up to $10 million in syndication capital to Luxemark. If this were to go to 0, the company would be trading at a slight premium to fair value assets less total liabilities. Long CCUR
  12. Money for Nothing is another great doc on this
  13. Looking for some more finance movies to watch. I enjoyed Trading Spaces, The Big Short, and Wolf of Wall Street... anybody have any recommendations???
  14. Capital leases, unlike operating leases, are put on the balance sheet. That asset should have an offsetting liability. What company is this?
  15. I have a question for all the crypto longs: When do you sell? Do you hold until it becomes used as a currency? If it is used as a currency, would there be no tax revenue for the government (since all transactions are anonymous)? Assuming there will be no tax revenue, don't you think that the government will try and prevent it's use? Apologies if this has been asked before.
  16. I wonder what the two new equity positions were that they added.
  17. The terminal value is a huge flaw of equity DCF valuation and is why it's so important to use a multitude of valuation metrics. There is so much room for error. Graham on investing vs. speculating in regard to future predictions: "Needless to say, the analyst must take possible future changes into account, but his primary aim is not so much to profit from them as to guard against them. Broadly speaking, he views the business future as a hazard which his conclusions must encounter rather than as the source of his vindication.”
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