DegenerateGambler Posted May 27 Posted May 27 Inflation could derail this semi-bubble (I say semi-bubble because there are real profits and real earnings going around). I for one hope it gets bigger so we can bet on the downside with higher conviction. Right now it's hard to see the market correcting more than 20%, If we get a 40% correction it'd be epic, but markets needs to go higher for a 40% correction.
Parsad Posted May 27 Posted May 27 9 minutes ago, ajlomb1011 said: Nah I’m just saying how it is, adding it at the end of every message makes it seem very fake I've been doing it on here for 23 years at the end of each message...it isn't fake, regardless of your unwanted or unwarranted opinion on the matter. It's when it isn't at the end of the post that it becomes more important!
Pauly Posted May 27 Posted May 27 2 hours ago, ajlomb1011 said: Your “Cheers!” At the end of every post comes off as very cocky and annoying, maybe think about changing that. You sound like a tool. Lol, the guy who created the damn site sounds 'like a tool' for a using a friendly sign off? You sound like a complete asshat, buddy. You should delete this.
Lazarus Posted May 27 Posted May 27 8 hours ago, Parsad said: I've been doing it on here for 23 years at the end of each message...it isn't fake, regardless of your unwanted or unwarranted opinion on the matter. It's when it isn't at the end of the post that it becomes more important! You forgot to add it to this message!
Paarslaars Posted May 27 Posted May 27 (edited) Of course when markets get too excited, a boom can turn into a bubble. edit: maybe a better graph: Edited May 27 by Paarslaars
cubsfan Posted May 27 Posted May 27 (edited) 15 hours ago, ajlomb1011 said: Your “Cheers!” At the end of every post comes off as very cocky and annoying, maybe think about changing that. You sound like a tool. That's Parsad's signature! It would never be the same without it! Have a sense of humor already. Edited May 27 by cubsfan
texual Posted May 27 Posted May 27 I cannot believe what I am reading. The end of Cheers!? This must be the top signal.
thowed Posted May 27 Posted May 27 Parsad not putting Cheers! at the end of a message is like Paddington doing a Hard Stare.
Spooky Posted May 27 Posted May 27 17 hours ago, Parsad said: What does this tell us? Buy the S&P 500 when the equity risk premium is above 6%! 2020 was a great buying opportunity. Just another data point showing the general market is not very attractive. Agree on looking for individual companies, it is what I said to Blake earlier in the thread. Putting some money into treasuries could make sense as well.
Sweet Posted May 27 Posted May 27 5 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Of course when markets get too excited, a boom can turn into a bubble. edit: maybe a better graph: I think these two environments are different. We are building out infrastructure for AI, and much of the revenue for semis and Mag7s are ultimately dependent on large investment from AI companies. If the hype of AI is not realised I can see domino effect, where AI companies aren’t spending as much, hyper scalers aren’t building out cloud, and demand for semis drops. Huge amounts of Google and Microsoft’s predicted cloud revenue is from AI companies like OpenAI or Anthropic and if they cut back it would blow a large hole in their forward guidance. In 2000 it seems like the reverse, price was getting way ahead of investment and revenue but that revenue did come. Whereas here the risk is that things just flatten out and revenue withers.
ajlomb1011 Posted May 27 Posted May 27 1 hour ago, cubsfan said: That's Parsad's signature! It would never be the same without it! Have a sense of humor already. Not sure what about that is humorous, but ok! I do apologize though, I was being very rude for no reason. @Parsad
cubsfan Posted May 27 Posted May 27 20 minutes ago, ajlomb1011 said: Not sure what about that is humorous, but ok! I do apologize though, I was being very rude for no reason. @Parsad He's genuinely a very cheerly fellow. We want to keep it that way!
Parsad Posted May 27 Posted May 27 8 hours ago, Lazarus said: You forgot to add it to this message! No, read the last line...if the "Cheers" isn't there, it should indicate something akin to "I'm not in a pleasant mood" or "You are very close to getting booted"! Consider it like a rattler's tail rattling if the "Cheers" is not there. Cheers!
Parsad Posted May 27 Posted May 27 3 hours ago, cubsfan said: That's Parsad's signature! It would never be the same without it! Have a sense of humor already. It's not Edward Murrow's "Good night, and good luck!" or Walter Cronkite's "And that's the way it is.", but I was going through a Aussie/Kiwi phase when I started the site. Sort of became the sign off after a while. Like a smoker, after 23 years of doing it...meh...ain't gonna kill me now! Cheers!
Parsad Posted May 27 Posted May 27 9 hours ago, Paarslaars said: Of course when markets get too excited, a boom can turn into a bubble. edit: maybe a better graph: We are headed there though! At some point, every dollar borrowed and invested in AI will be generating incrementally less, and then the market will correct or collapse depending on how out of whack the valuations are. I think that should make Blake happy! Generally, when corrections happen, they overshoot the other way as well until you hit capitulation. We sort of saw capitulation twice during the GFC...around October 2008 and then again around February 2009. It's not a comfortable ride, but if you are prepared, it was quite exciting and fun...and very opportunistic! https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-40-1-cape-113349287.html Cheers!
Gregmal Posted May 27 Posted May 27 10 minutes ago, Parsad said: We are headed there though! At some point, every dollar borrowed and invested in AI will be generating incrementally less, and then the market will correct or collapse depending on how out of whack the valuations are. I think that should make Blake happy! Generally, when corrections happen, they overshoot the other way as well until you hit capitulation. We sort of saw capitulation twice during the GFC...around October 2008 and then again around February 2009. It's not a comfortable ride, but if you are prepared, it was quite exciting and fun...and very opportunistic! https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-40-1-cape-113349287.html Cheers! The real wealth indicator; who's liquid enough to buy vacation homes when shit hits the fan?
Parsad Posted May 27 Posted May 27 57 minutes ago, Gregmal said: The real wealth indicator; who's liquid enough to buy vacation homes when shit hits the fan? Yup! That is a pretty good indicator. Although, even the less wealthy, if prepared, can take advantage. During the GFC, I even told our LP partners, don't invest with us...if you have money, buy a bunch of property in FL, AZ and NV. You'll make more 5-10 years down the road than you will with us! I remember you could buy 2 bed, 2 bath condos about 10 years old in AZ for $30-40K each...like in Scottsdale and Phoenix! You could buy a brand new hotel condo in Vegas for less than $100K. It was crazy! Cheers!
Lazarus Posted May 27 Posted May 27 5 minutes ago, Parsad said: Yup! That is a pretty good indicator. Although, even the less wealthy, if prepared, can take advantage. During the GFC, I even told our LP partners, don't invest with us...if you have money, buy a bunch of property in FL, AZ and NV. You'll make more 5-10 years down the road than you will with us! I remember you could buy 2 bed, 2 bath condos about 10 years old in AZ for $30-40K each...like in Scottsdale and Phoenix! You could buy a brand new hotel condo in Vegas for less than $100K. It was crazy! Cheers! I have a buddy who was buying up properties in Detroit for about $10K each, fixing them up and renting almost exclusively to military vets (something about Veteran Affairs guaranteeing the rent). He bought something like 100 houses.
thepupil Posted May 28 Posted May 28 On 5/19/2026 at 2:17 PM, thepupil said: well it's funny because you express this in terms of value boiz being complete idiots for caring anything about valuation, when from my seat you bought a high quality, growing business, and sold it somehere in the orange zone which seems like an astute and reasonable and valuation sensitive thing to do....doesn't exactly sound like you're chomping at the bit to buy in the red zone. my stylized graph of valuation risk for COST...this is my life's greatest work. our robust and completely useless discussion here compelled me to short a bit...made some beer money shorting COST for 10 days, +11% vs mkt, yay.... sometimes you just have to touch the stove...just to feel something
rogermunibond Posted June 1 Posted June 1 So if we're in a bubble, and it's an earnings driven bubble, then on the flip side, it's government deficit spend that's driving it.
Madpawn Posted June 3 Posted June 3 Keen to get this boards opinion of cash position vs hunting for good deals - I think this market still had decent deals out there, perhaps evidenced by BRK and other value investors purchasing specific companies on or off the market. That said, I’m struggling to find the balance between buying those bargains and preserving cash in the event where a broader market downturn affects everyone and everything … thoughts on that? It’s like “rational” FOMO on one hand and fear on the other…
frommi Posted June 3 Posted June 3 34 minutes ago, Madpawn said: That said, I’m struggling to find the balance between buying those bargains and preserving cash in the event where a broader market downturn affects everyone and everything … thoughts on that? It’s like “rational” FOMO on one hand and fear on the other… I have that problem since i started seriously investing 10 years ago, there were always bargains around. And i realized i can't keep cash, every week i would buy until that is depleted. But during summer i buy put options to solve my psychological problems (because the market always feels expensive/bubbly to me) and this works for me.
Valuebo Posted June 3 Posted June 3 On 5/28/2026 at 10:33 PM, thepupil said: our robust and completely useless discussion here compelled me to short a bit...made some beer money shorting COST for 10 days, +11% vs mkt, yay.... sometimes you just have to touch the stove...just to feel something You really shouldn't drink so much beer!
Blake Hampton Posted June 4 Posted June 4 "Leverage, of course, can be lethal to businesses as well. Companies with large debts often assume that these obligations can be refinanced as they mature. That assumption is usually valid. Occasionally, though, either because of company-specific problems or a worldwide shortage of credit, maturities must actually be met by payment. For that, only cash will do the job. Borrowers then learn that credit is like oxygen. When either is abundant, its presence goes unnoticed. When either is missing, that’s all that is noticed. Even a short absence of credit can bring a company to its knees. In September 2008, in fact, its overnight disappearance in many sectors of the economy came dangerously close to bringing our entire country to its knees." — Warren Buffett, Berkshire's 2010 Shareholder Letter
Blake Hampton Posted June 4 Posted June 4 A fiscal crisis would make 2008 look like a walk in the park. Cash is not trash.
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