Are we in a bubble?

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Intelligent_Investor said:

Probably going to try and buy some SpaceX puts on IPO.

 

3 days after usually

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, Malmqky said:

The problem is that even if he is right, there’s a high chance the music plays for decades still.

 

If he’s right and everything blows up in 35 years, he’s still going to come out far behind than if he was investing that whole time in equities, etc.

 

If he’s wrong, there is nothing to prove it. So it’ll be 35 years later and he’s still waiting for the blow-up, and has missed out on millions.

Macro stuff like this is too hard.

 

His whole thesis is un-investable because of this.

Assume he is right.  Pick a date.  Any date.  Will every business on the planet implode?

[frommi]

21 minutes ago, Cor said:

Incredible timing if this starts a significant correction. What made you say it’s today vs yesterday or Monday? 
 

Some posters here just seem to get the timing bang on, please share some of your wisdom 

Elliott wave counting. Doesn't always work, but when it does you look like a wizard

[Peregrine]

I wonder if what ultimately deflates this bubble is all the bubbles crashing together to compete for liquidity. Two datapoints already:

 

- Bitcoin now down 50% from the peak. Ethereum down 80% from 2024 levels. All other crypto: virtually no bid

- Korea experiencing the largest single month of foreign selling ($30 billion out in May) and the largest single year of foreign net selling (~$100 billion YTD) likely because foreigners are selling out of memory for upcoming IPOs

 

On top of this, Google is doing an $85 billion raise in advance of the 3 mega IPOs and S&P just shut off the spigots for passive flows into all of 3 IPOs, choking off the last source of exit liquidity. This may well get pretty ugly.

[Eldad]

Wild day. 2 year spiked to 4.18 at one point. Chip blood bath and old economy surge again. 
 

 

[Blake Hampton]

Space Exploration Technologies Corp: FORM S-1

 

After excluding R&D, restructuring charges, and that little impairment expense, you're left with a pre-tax income of roughly $5.2 billion. At the current 21% corporate tax rate, that leaves last year's net income at about $4.1 billion.

They're targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, meaning it would trade at about 427x last years earnings:

[Blake Hampton]

Every week when I go through Value Line, I see dogshit like this, page after page after page.

Buy it up folks.

[Malmqky]

Go find me a single person on this board who’s gonna buy the IPO lol

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Why is it hard for some folks to strike a balance between invested assets and investable cash?  Or adopt the Buffett approach whereas some invested assets throw off enough cash that there is a perpetual stream of cash flow available to invest?  

 

More of a psychological issue than investing issue.  Buffett and Munger always talked about the psychological component that makes investors do irrational things.  Why am I afraid of heights?  As I'm getting older, why do I feel like I'm more likely to drown...even though I'm a really good swimmer?  Strange what the brain can do to rational thought.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Cor said:

Incredible timing if this starts a significant correction. What made you say it’s today vs yesterday or Monday? 
 

Some posters here just seem to get the timing bang on, please share some of your wisdom 

 

You know how some old folks get pain in their big toe or knee if the weather is changing or a storm is coming...my nipples harden when the stock market starts to correct in a big way!    Cheers!

 

 

[Paarslaars]

Not sure we are seeing a correction here. Just fear for rate hikes...

[Libs]

 

And this is BEFORE adding the 3 giant IPO's in the pipeline. What will that number be, 50%?

 

We are in a bubble. But so what? 

 

Just sidestep the AI crap with the COBF ETF. If it drops, buy more (if you can). But  I have a hunch it will be more like 2000 - Nasdaq down massively, while value stocks rallied and crushed the market.

 

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Paarslaars said:

Not sure we are seeing a correction here. Just fear for rate hikes...

 

Already started two days ago.  High flyers coming down to Earth now with a nearly 2T IPO coming up.  Things are making less sense.  Not that you can't find stuff...there is a lot of single P/E stuff out there now and more coming every day it seems.  For those that were wondering how FFH will sustain performance over the next few years...they are getting opportunities and chances are more will arrive as things get tougher in some parts.  A tale of two cities now...half of consumers are still doing great...half are just dying!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

9 minutes ago, Libs said:

 

And this is BEFORE adding the 3 giant IPO's in the pipeline. What will that number be, 50%?

 

We are in a bubble. But so what? 

 

Just sidestep the AI crap with the COBF ETF. If it drops, buy more (if you can). But  I have a hunch it will be more like 2000 - Nasdaq down massively, while value stocks rallied and crushed the market.

 

 

50% for high flyers...but like 2000-2003, half the market is not expensive with half of that being pretty cheap.  It's the other half that is going to get clobbered!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

For those that were wondering how FFH will sustain performance over the next few years

Yea, imagine that? Whining about how we can sustain single digit PEs at Fairfax as its generally accepted that Nvidia is cheap at 25x?

[Eldad]

Just now, Parsad said:

 

50% for high flyers...but like 2000-2003, half the market is not expensive with half of that being pretty cheap.  It's the other half that is going to get clobbered!  Cheers!

Agree with you two. We will see if Open AI or whoever is last of the three can even go through with it by the Fall. 

[Parsad]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea, imagine that? Whining about how we can sustain single digit PEs at Fairfax as its generally accepted that Nvidia is cheap at 25x?

 

I'm still confused by Abel's buy of GOOGL...people are congratulating that decision, but worried about FFH?!  Bizarre!

 

I own GOOGL...lots...but I bought it at a third of what BRK bought it for.  I don't think it is expensive right now...not cheap either...but to me a strange buy that doesn't fit the old Ben Graham/Buffett thinking.  

 

Cheers!

[Cor]

47 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

You know how some old folks get pain in their big toe or knee if the weather is changing or a storm is coming...my nipples harden when the stock market starts to correct in a big way!    Cheers!

 

 

That’s a gift many don’t have, congrats

[Castanza]

27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I'm still confused by Abel's buy of GOOGL...people are congratulating that decision, but worried about FFH?!  Bizarre!

 

I own GOOGL...lots...but I bought it at a third of what BRK bought it for.  I don't think it is expensive right now...not cheap either...but to me a strange buy that doesn't fit the old Ben Graham/Buffett thinking.  

 

Cheers!

 

I trimmed a bit of my GOOGL position yesterday. The BRK side of things doesn't make sense to me (agree with you)....but GOOGL signaling they have to raise cash in order to fund AI development doesn't sit right with me. The whole narrative last year was these companies will fund build out with fcf...now here we are one year later and the only Mega Cloud company sitting with a net cash position is Microsoft. Still a large position for me...but I can't help but think we are at the beginning of the debt funding spiral and at the end of all these buildouts there is always bag holders....

[thowed]

34 minutes ago, Parsad said:

a strange buy that doesn't fit the old Ben Graham/Buffett thinking.

 

Should we expect Greg Abel to have exactly the same style?

 

Succession is hard, and we won't know how he's done for a long time. We have to trust Warren to have chosen the right person.

 

Hopefully the Google purchase will become more clear in the future.

 

 

[Eldad]

1 minute ago, thowed said:

 

Should we expect Greg Abel to have exactly the same style?

 

Succession is hard, and we won't know how he's done for a long time. We have to trust Warren to have chosen the right person.

 

Hopefully the Google purchase will become more clear in the future.

 

 

If you put a gun to my head and said you have to buy GOOGL or UA at today’s prices, I would buy GOOGL in a heartbeat. We don’t really know the rational behind either one and should just trust the process imo. 

[Parsad]

7 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

I trimmed a bit of my GOOGL position yesterday. The BRK side of things doesn't make sense to me (agree with you)....but GOOGL signaling they have to raise cash in order to fund AI development doesn't sit right with me. The whole narrative last year was these companies will fund build out with fcf...now here we are one year later and the only Mega Cloud company sitting with a net cash position is Microsoft. Still a large position for me...but I can't help but think we are at the beginning of the debt funding spiral and at the end of all these buildouts there is always bag holders....

 

Agree.  Although I think the big companies taking on debt, will manage it better and things are quite transparent.  It's the private companies flooding the market with debt that I think will be the big defaults...essentially black boxes of capital and spending...and all of the morons funding this stuff like there is no end!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, thowed said:

 

Should we expect Greg Abel to have exactly the same style?

 

Succession is hard, and we won't know how he's done for a long time. We have to trust Warren to have chosen the right person.

 

Hopefully the Google purchase will become more clear in the future.

 

 

 

No of course not...but I also wouldn't want to see a move similar to Gates to Ballmer...we saw how that played out!  Far too early to make even a judgement call on Abel...I was just saying, I didn't understand the investment, and that's something I've never said about Buffett.  Cheers!

[brobro777]

Boy it was getting annoying paying borrow fees to IBKR for shorting EWY but I guess it's paid off

 

haha yes

 

 

[Spekulatius]

16 hours ago, Paarslaars said:

Fidelity lowers the minimum requirement for SpaceX IPO from 500k to 2k... man retail is going to get screwed. IPO at 100x sales and mom & pop investors can serve as exit liquidity.

Yes certainly the tell . $META frontrunning it to raise cash is another one.

 

I think they might even have to lower the $135 share price to get this done.