Dynastic European Companies

[Spekulatius]

On 8/13/2025 at 8:45 PM, Marco Van Basten said:

So, Maubert family showed it could not care less about what minority shareholders wanted - two strategics tried to buy it and instead of an auction, they said no!  However, I used to own it back in 2017-2019 if I recall correctly, and again bought here.  At 16x 2026 EPS, for inflation + 2% top line growth, with possible margin expansion, Robertet looks appealing.  

RBT has done surprisingly well in 2024 and so far 2025 at a time when many parfume/luxury good producers have issues ($COTY, L‘Oreal, $EL etc). Same with competitors like IFF. They seemed to have a decent most around natural ingredients which en vogue as the French say. Not a super cheap stock, but cheap and good enough for me to buy a small position and potentially add to it if it’s  get cheaper (or the story gets better and price doesn’t move much).

Edited August 23, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Marco Van Basten]

6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

RBT has done surprisingly well in 2024 and so far 2025 at a time when many parfume/luxury good producers have issues ($COTY, L‘Oreal, $EL etc). Some with competitors like IFF. They seemed to have a decent most around natural ingredients which en vogue as the French say. Not a super cheap stock, but cheap and good enough for me to buy a small position and potentially add to it unfit get cheaper (or the story gets better and price doesn’t move much).

At E 818, it was trading at 17x 2026 EPS, seems pretty cheap to me given revenue growth of more than 5% per annum on an organic basis, with high returns on marginal capital.  

[Dalal.Holdings]

12 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/yet-another-value-podcast/id1526149547?i=1000669715874
 

@Dalal.Holdings here is some history on Bollore. VB referred to as a “compounding bro.”

I like the fact that there is downside protection and started a small position. I'm treating it like buying UMG at a steep discount.

 

However, the questionable time to monetization bothers me. This is the kind of thing where if I get a quick 15% or so gain, I could easily exit.

 

On 8/18/2025 at 5:56 PM, Spekulatius said:

I have a hard time seeing the S&P 500 doing 9.6% for the next 12 years from current levels, but that could just be me. I think it’s likely that Bollore will increase their NAV at decent Clip too. For one thing UMG is their largest Holding and it’s a pretty good business. I also think they have an obvious way to use buybacks and squeeze outs (ODET etc) to increase NAV with their current cash hoard. Squeeze outs in cash deferred accounts are not problem, because even with a small premium because  you can always purchase the remaining vehicle holding essentially the same assets (Bollore).

 

It seems like Odet public float is quite small now. What kind of minority shareholder protections exist for squeeze outs in France? What kind of premium for squeeze out to people expect with ODET.PA ? My guess is Bollore family will try to get as good a deal as they can, no ?

 

 

Edited August 20, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Cod Liver Oil]

Odet minorities probably get squeezed because it has the smaller float and Bollore would remain the surviving entity.  Some folks think Odet is worth >4000 but I am sure it will get crammed down. Both Bollore and Odet continue to shrink the cap.. It's a special situation with the nice UMG asset at its core. It's like Joe in that there is good value but you will need patience. Stocks like these are entertaining to own because they are mystery stories; you don't know how or when you will get paid and you watch the skepticism hang over them like rain clouds as value builds underneath. We own both.

Edited August 22, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Dalal.Holdings]

I wouldn't own JOE or any land bank, but I'm fine owning this because its core assets are a high quality publicly traded business and cash.

 

I don't believe in owning land banks and think they are a huge waste of opportunity. A business like UMG will grow a lot faster than plots of land over the long haul with much better returns too. Sure there is more risk of disruption by AI, etc, but I can take that.

 

Just look at CKX...looks like shareholders will end up with far less than they expected (some were forecasting more than double the current share price). ALCO another. Waste of time. Massive opportunity down the drain. TPL worked only because of the shale black swan (luck).

 

 

Edited August 22, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Spekulatius]

21 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Odet minorities probably get squeezed because it has the smaller float and Bollore would remain the surviving entity.  Some folks think Odet is worth >4000 but I am sure it will get crammed down. Both Bollore and Odet continue to shrink the cap.. It's a special situation with the nice UMG asset at its core. It's like Joe in that there is good value but you will need patience. Stocks like these are entertaining to own because they are mystery stories; you don't know how or when you will get paid and you watch the skepticism hang over them like rain clouds as value builds underneath. We own both.

Odet is probably next because the float is so small. Bollore is in the process of eliminating Cambodge, Artois and Moncey and they all went for a premium, but not fair value. If you own this on a tax deferred account , you just cash out and buy into a surviving entity (Odet, Bollore) and rinse and repeat. Bollore has the largest float  even though that went from 37% to ~30% too over the years as  there were tender offer and buybacks.

 

I think eventually the Bollore family will own it all, but it will be a while.

Edited August 23, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Cod Liver Oil]

Yes, this is a slow motion unwind of the Bollore family office. It's probably more efficient to own it in tax free accounts but I have different flavors in both.  @Dalal.Holdings I see Joe as a quality operating business with a land bank attached, not a wasting or moribund asset.

[Dalal.Holdings]

54 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Yes, this is a slow motion unwind of the Bollore family office. It's probably more efficient to own it in tax free accounts but I have different flavors in both.  @Dalal.Holdings I see Joe as a quality operating business with a land bank attached, not a wasting or moribund asset.

I keep things very simple. All I need to do is look at multi-decade stock charts of JOE, ALCO, etc to know that these are not worthy of my capital. Good luck w JOE.

[Cod Liver Oil]

Dalal, Iooking backward is useful but finding inflection points in a company's evolution can be very profitable.  I have no opinion on ALCO, but Joe looks like an improving business to me.  We will find out over the next few years.

[Spekulatius]

A rear view mirror is useful but I prefer to look ahead through the windshield when I am driving.

[John Hjorth]

On 8/15/2025 at 5:02 PM, Cod Liver Oil said:

I don't mind a little opportunity cost now and then. I think of Bollore as a cash substitute. It may be largely de-risked as it has a ton of net cash rn. VB is doing the right things but none of it has shown in the share price yet. Reasonably liquid, unlike Odet (or Robertet).  Obviously Exor, Investor and Dior are different animals. I am sure these companies look more exotic  to American investors than European ones like @John Hjorth or @jeyfox. I think @Spekulatius and @Marco Van Basten have European roots.

 

@Cod Liver Oil and all other fellow CofB&F members active in this topic,

 

I think this topic as such and the exchanges, back and forth, and discussions going on in this topic are very good, stimulating absolutely worth as basis for food for thought. What is fascinating is that we live in world today, where there is something alvailable to invest in for about every taste, style and temper. We just need to decide, find out in our selves, and search & find, with great inspiration available already here on CofB&F.

 

With regard to European members, as mentioned above by @Cod Liver Oil, about European board members, I'll mention the board members Jurgis and rb, who both have left and moved on, and now inactive, both leaving without slamming with the door CofB&B-wise, by disabling or closing / deleting their accounts [which creates non-searchable and orhan posts, like physical objects in the Kuyper Belt] like unfortunatrely many others have done, in the database tables of CofB&F]. Both with Eastern European backgrounds [Jurgis living then in Boston MA, USA, from one of the Baltic States, I think it was Estonia, rb living then in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, from Romania]. I still miss them today here and their deep and wide knowledge about European businesses they have shared here. Maybe, - maybe some day, we'll see them get back here!

 

About European companies being considered perhaps exotic for North American [I include Canadian, too] investors, at least to me, it only natural to me, when there is access to wealth of interesting stuff already in that part of America on the Western side of the Atlantic Ocean. Furthermore, that US PFIC thingy likely in some cases  is considered a showstopper for many, and for a good reason to avoid buying into problems. [I think this US tax rule is absolutely crazy, actually.]

Edited August 23, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Dalal.Holdings]

6 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Dalal, Iooking backward is useful but finding inflection points in a company's evolution can be very profitable.  I have no opinion on ALCO, but Joe looks like an improving business to me.  We will find out over the next few years.

 

Looking backward at 3 decades of underperformance/flat line performance is quite revealing to me about the fundamental returns on capital of the business & industry in question. Short term underperformance is noisy and not informative.

 

There are some businesses that will just be mostly flat for 30 years and there are others that will actually compound at high rates over this time and you will see it clearly in the chart.

 

It's in the nature of each kind of business & industry.

 

I'll stay away from the former type of business/industry and go with the latter.

 

I'll leave betting on land in the Florida panhandle or FL orange groves or timberland in Louisiana to others.

[Cod Liver Oil]

Peter Lynch says there are many ways to skin a cat. John Horth calls it finding your personal style. Buffett calls it your circle of competence. Druk loves his macro.  @Spekulatius has his style. @Gregmal and @Marco Van Basten have their distinctive approaches.   @Luke and @whatstheofficerproblem  and @thepupil all very different people.  @Parsad, @nwoodman and @dealraker have hard earned wisdom. All of these guys have legitimate points of view and will be successful imo. That's what makes this so fun. 

Edited August 23, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Gregmal]

Everything is situational. If the incentives align it’s fairly easy to identify a value backstop that skews risk/reward. BRG was the biggest POS with some of the most misaligned business practices, and when it inflected you had virtually no downside and massive upside depending upon how you played it. Things with hard assets and a catalyst are easier if the capital stack isn’t going to kill you. Even the ones that don’t produce favorable in end result, say CKX, present what? No downside and upside of up to 30% between potential inflection and conclusion? GYRO another. You sit around and if nothing goes right it’s a few years of dead money and trading opps…so what? Never really seen the allure others have in shitty telcos or clothing companies with low PEs and massive debt load businesses that only had moats before the internet existed.

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Peter Lynch says there are many ways to skin a cat. John Horth calls it finding your personal style. Buffett calls it your circle of competence. Druk loves his macro.  @Spekulatius has his style. @Gregmal and @Marco Van Basten have their distinctive approaches.   @Luke and @whatstheofficerproblem  and @thepupil all very different people.  @Parsad, @nwoodman and @dealraker have hard earned wisdom. All of these guys have legitimate points of view and will be successful imo. That's what makes this so fun. 

 

The above post by @Cod Liver Oil is to me actually for a long time span here on CofB&F, the best post according to me best recolllection. It is the carrier, conveyor, bearer and proponent for what is the essense of CofB&F and the dynamics of having CofB&F running constantly the right way, because of a very special guy living in Vancouver, BC, Canada, which stamina, perseverance and patience with us all, now on third decade, still never giving up on keeping us connected. The art here is to get stimulated by input from others with different perceptions, approaches, here, to cause critical thinking, to evolve and to get better in our shared and common non-zero game, in stead of here engaging into digging digital trenches and participation in keyboard quarrels, not just to call them keyboard wars.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

This evening, I'm personally watching a documentary transmission on Danish TV Channel TV2 about the life of late singer Sinead O'Connor, who passed away in 2023, may she rest in peace. She basically spent most of her life fighting against anybody trying to call her anything, placing her in any kind of booth!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Alone the exchanges in this topic and other places here on CofB&F has already caused me to decide, that in this autumn, the Danish summer is coming to an end, next autumn to start soon, that I will allocate, likely, a material part of my time, in this autumn, to look again closer - and not for the first time, certainly, -on Exor and the Bolloré Galaxy, and also on Fairfax, that never ended up to take place in the beginning of this year, because of real life issues demanding my attention.

Edited August 23, 2025 by John Hjorth

[73 Reds]

3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Peter Lynch says there are many ways to skin a cat. John Horth calls it finding your personal style. Buffett calls it your circle of competence. Druk loves his macro.  @Spekulatius has his style. @Gregmal and @Marco Van Basten have their distinctive approaches.   @Luke and @whatstheofficerproblem  and @thepupil all very different people.  @Parsad, @nwoodman and @dealraker have hard earned wisdom. All of these guys have legitimate points of view and will be successful imo. That's what makes this so fun. 

I echo what John wrote.  Different styles, approaches, backgrounds and skills are what make this Board unique.  But don't forget about pure passive investing.  Anyone who had simply dollar cost averaged into an S&P 500 Fund or the equivalent for the last 10, 20, 30 or more years would be doing quite well with little in the way of taxes and costs to interfere with investment results.  Indeed, many ways to skin a cat.  With apologies to anyone in the money management profession, for most folks the best approach is to stay out of your own way and ignore everything and everyone offering investment advice.

[Dalal.Holdings]

3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Peter Lynch says there are many ways to skin a cat. John Horth calls it finding your personal style. Buffett calls it your circle of competence. Druk loves his macro.  @Spekulatius has his style. @Gregmal and @Marco Van Basten have their distinctive approaches.   @Luke and @whatstheofficerproblem  and @thepupil all very different people.  @Parsad, @nwoodman and @dealraker have hard earned wisdom. All of these guys have legitimate points of view and will be successful imo. That's what makes this so fun. 

That all sounds very nice, but if you can’t beat the S&P over the long haul (the true marker for opportunity cost), you should put it all in an index fund and go do something else. 
 

As we’ve seen, there are many “value investing legends” with their unique styles (Klarman, Einhorn, Pabrai) who have underperformed for a decade plus. They made a mistake by being so stubborn.

I’m only interested in the investing styles that beat the S&P. Everything else is a waste of time. 
 

I think UMG will have a much higher internal rate of return than any land bank. The land banks might be interesting at highly distressed prices with immediate catalysts, but they do not strike me as long term holds.

[Gregmal]

Well that’s why everything is situational. Doesn’t matter the “fill in the blank”; probably with the exception of Malone companies which are just pieces of shit remnants of another eras exuberance and financial engineering.
 

UMG, today? Maybe, maybe not. High conviction? Go for it. But much the same could be said about UMG over the past half decade since it’s been public despite huge fanboying and Ackman with his megaphone. In fact, since being public it’s spent like 80% of its existence underwater. Everything is about picking spots and setups. The tickers are just puzzle pieces.

[Cod Liver Oil]

@Gregmal the only reason I have a feeling for UMG is that I am involved with a company working in the music space and a few guys have worked with them and they are the gorilla. But the music business is evolving and even the whales are struggling to find growth.

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@Gregmal the only reason I have a feeling for UMG is that I am involved with a company working in the music space and a few guys have worked with them and they are the gorilla. But the music business is evolving and even the whales are struggling to find growth.

It’s a great business no doubt. All the stuff we text about really. But in between there is stuff like the capital stack, earnings multiple, secular trends, all on down to type of share class structure. UMG is probably a good investment from here. As you know, we bucket things as it’s totally not something I’d never look at and be like “gee well, Alico or Universal Music?”. 
 

UMG is an operating business and is subject to many different risks that something like Alico isn’t. And vice versa. Alico or GYRO or CKX previously(or something like MSGS/AMRZ/DEO/TAP) are basically cash subs with heads I win, tails in don’t lose much profiles that I generally hold on margin and don’t give two shits about as long as I can reconcile the potential timeframe of my involvement and the risk/reward. If I’m buying something like UMG or say Nintendo, I prefer more confidence in the longer term runway where I can just own it and leave it alone. My operating businesses; I prefer to own not needing to fret 20% valuation fluctuations determining the need for smashing buy/sell buttons.

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It’s a great business no doubt. All the stuff we text about really. But in between there is stuff like the capital stack, earnings multiple, secular trends, all on down to type of share class structure. UMG is probably a good investment from here. As you know, we bucket things as it’s totally not something I’d never look at and be like “gee well, Alico or Universal Music?”. 
 

UMG is an operating business and is subject to many different risks that something like Alico isn’t. And vice versa. Alico or GYRO or CKX previously(or something like MSGS/AMRZ/DEO/TAP) are basically cash subs with heads I win, tails in don’t lose much profiles that I generally hold on margin and don’t give two shits about as long as I can reconcile the potential timeframe of my involvement and the risk/reward. If I’m buying something like UMG or say Nintendo, I prefer more confidence in the longer term runway where I can just own it and leave it alone. My operating businesses; I prefer to own not needing to fret 20% valuation fluctuations determining the need for smashing buy/sell buttons.

You own AMRZ?  Why?  I would not consider TAP and DEO cash substitutes, and somebody just wrote up TAP as a short on your favorite website...  I not a fan of DEO and TAP.  I used to think BTI was a cash substitute and owned instead of cash, but no more.  

[Gregmal]

Just now, Marco Van Basten said:

You own AMRZ?  Why?  I would not consider TAP and DEO cash substitutes, and somebody just wrote up TAP as a short on your favorite website...  I not a fan of DEO and TAP.  I used to think BTI was a cash substitute and owned instead of cash, but no more.  

AMRZ, well you definitely got me interesting my man...thanks for that. Not much to add on top of what you've already touched on in the thread.

 

But in general I view companies like the ones mentioned more assets than operating businesses. So something like UMG, heck Berkshire and Fairfax are operating businesses that much more greatly rely on their stewards for direction and excellence. UMG especially, that world is very competitive and changing to varying degrees. You need excellent managers.

 

Something like TAP/DEO/ALCO/MSGS/AMRZ are kind of assets/brands that a nimrod could run so when valuation isnt stretched I tend to find these very attractive cash subs that have longer term investment potential. MSGS Ive married for over a decade and its done well for me although lately not as much which as we've talked about separately, Im kinda giving that some evaluation in terms of where its proper place is in the portfolio. But TAP/DEO, I know you dont care for, but I mean at 10-15x for those brands, with those balance sheets, Ill hang around and if something else pops up thats a better skew Ill take it. TAP, largely prompted by a lot of the logic @Dalal.Holdingsharped on earlier in the year, I bought low/mid 50s, got some divvys, and on nothing but probably lucky exited over $60 in the heat of the "Liberation Day" panic to buy other stuff. Bought it back again around $50....I can keep myself busy and generate better than cash or margin cost returns just flipping through these and if it goes substantially lower I can back up the truck a good bit. 

[LC]

On MSGE, I routinely sell calls against the position. It's a similar JOE/Bruce behavior where the market routinely puts a Dolan ceiling on the stock. I've lost count how many times I've sold calls @ 45, then sold puts @ 30-35 when it inevitably retreats. I trade UMG when it drifts to the low 20s, then sell at 26/27. 

 

So I like when there are options available to sell against these family holdcos because it can juice returns when the market puts some cap on the share price. 

 

[Gregmal]

25 minutes ago, LC said:

On MSGE, I routinely sell calls against the position. It's a similar JOE/Bruce behavior where the market routinely puts a Dolan ceiling on the stock. I've lost count how many times I've sold calls @ 45, then sold puts @ 30-35 when it inevitably retreats. I trade UMG when it drifts to the low 20s, then sell at 26/27. 

 

So I like when there are options available to sell against these family holdcos because it can juice returns when the market puts some cap on the share price. 

 

Yup. Like clockwork you can add 5-10% to your annual returns(again, crushing “cash”) on MSGE just selling puts. Frankly I’d have mixed emotions about the stock finally breaking out past $45+. 

[73 Reds]

11 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It’s a great business no doubt. All the stuff we text about really. But in between there is stuff like the capital stack, earnings multiple, secular trends, all on down to type of share class structure. UMG is probably a good investment from here. As you know, we bucket things as it’s totally not something I’d never look at and be like “gee well, Alico or Universal Music?”. 
 

UMG is an operating business and is subject to many different risks that something like Alico isn’t. And vice versa. Alico or GYRO or CKX previously(or something like MSGS/AMRZ/DEO/TAP) are basically cash subs with heads I win, tails in don’t lose much profiles that I generally hold on margin and don’t give two shits about as long as I can reconcile the potential timeframe of my involvement and the risk/reward. If I’m buying something like UMG or say Nintendo, I prefer more confidence in the longer term runway where I can just own it and leave it alone. My operating businesses; I prefer to own not needing to fret 20% valuation fluctuations determining the need for smashing buy/sell buttons.

ALCO?  Reminds me of JOE from decades ago.  I've been watching this company (with amusement) since living nearby way back when.  Little has changed and management still sucks.  Like JOE there is plenty of time to avoid this until something actually happens beyond orange groves.