Dynastic European Companies

[73 Reds]

9 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

You own AMRZ?  Why?  I would not consider TAP and DEO cash substitutes, and somebody just wrote up TAP as a short on your favorite website...  I not a fan of DEO and TAP.  I used to think BTI was a cash substitute and owned instead of cash, but no more.  

I dunno, BTI and other big tobacco have been written off for decades yet they continue to pump out huge sums of profits for shareholders and they're not going away anytime soon.  Cash substitute?  maybe not; better than cash. - I think so.

[Gregmal]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

ALCO?  Reminds me of JOE from decades ago.  I've been watching this company (with amusement) since living nearby way back when.  Little has changed and management still sucks.  Like JOE there is plenty of time to avoid this until something actually happens beyond orange groves.  

Everything changed. I’ve followed it since probably 2005. All of that is true. It got interesting during Covid when they were selling good chunks of land, paying $2 yearly dividends, and just floating between $30-40. Few cold winters and hurricanes later though….you’re a smart guy and from what I understand, fairly local to where some of the key stuff like Corkscrew Village are. But certainly brush up on the last 12 months. Had a thorough review process of the assets. Cancelled the Trop contract and completely exited anything citrus related. 100% of focus now, not to mention management comp is tied to working through the entitlement process for the two MPC. Just those MPC alone are likely to result in PV almost 50-100% higher than current market cap by 2029. There’s more to it that warrants investigation, but again, from $30 or wherever it’s been another fairly easy fish in a barrel heads in win and tails I still probably win a little. It’s certainly no JOE or Fairfax or Nintendo, but you give me 5-6% margin, some rather clear runway and incentives, I’ll take my shot. If something more compelling long term comes around, I’m also happy to move on as I’ve done before.

[73 Reds]

53 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Everything changed. I’ve followed it since probably 2005. All of that is true. It got interesting during Covid when they were selling good chunks of land, paying $2 yearly dividends, and just floating between $30-40. Few cold winters and hurricanes later though….you’re a smart guy and from what I understand, fairly local to where some of the key stuff like Corkscrew Village are. But certainly brush up on the last 12 months. Had a thorough review process of the assets. Cancelled the Trop contract and completely exited anything citrus related. 100% of focus now, not to mention management comp is tied to working through the entitlement process for the two MPC. Just those MPC alone are likely to result in PV almost 50-100% higher than current market cap by 2029. There’s more to it that warrants investigation, but again, from $30 or wherever it’s been another fairly easy fish in a barrel heads in win and tails I still probably win a little. It’s certainly no JOE or Fairfax or Nintendo, but you give me 5-6% margin, some rather clear runway and incentives, I’ll take my shot. If something more compelling long term comes around, I’m also happy to move on as I’ve done before.

I see and read their plans but it looks like 100% potential at this point in time.  Won't miss much by watching until the potential becomes real.  Still screams "value trap" to me.  In that sense, very much like JOE until recently.  

[Gregmal]

12 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

I see and read their plans but it looks like 100% potential at this point in time.  Won't miss much by watching until the potential becomes real.  Still screams "value trap" to me.  In that sense, very much like JOE until recently.  

Sure, but it’s a stock. In terms of positive vs negative catalysts the deck is stacked. Expectations are….decades worth of failures low. Pretty much any progress should yield an opportunity to make money with the stock. 
 

Awhile ago on here I wrote up the CRISPR stocks as a trade. And there was some skepticism around “I’m having trouble seeing how they make money”…and it’s like “ok you worry about that and I’ll make money in the stocks”, because frankly who gives a shit how these pre rev biotechs make money a decade from now? All the catalysts and positive story developments that are gonna drive the stock’s trading and are ahead of us. And all those stocks multi bagged hard and most today, 7-8 years later are lower…and yes NOW, more than a half decade later after tons of money was made in the stock, these companies are faced with the issue of how they’re actually gonna make money, and most won’t…. but again, is the objective to make money in the market or figure out with exactness something that doesn’t really matter right now?

[Marco Van Basten]

5 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

I dunno, BTI and other big tobacco have been written off for decades yet they continue to pump out huge sums of profits for shareholders and they're not going away anytime soon.  Cash substitute?  maybe not; better than cash. - I think so.

At 10%+ dividend yield, with 1-2% volume declines, it was a great cash substitute.  At a p/e = 14, not so much.   Of course better than cash though.   

[73 Reds]

19 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Sure, but it’s a stock. In terms of positive vs negative catalysts the deck is stacked. Expectations are….decades worth of failures low. Pretty much any progress should yield an opportunity to make money with the stock. 
 

Awhile ago on here I wrote up the CRISPR stocks as a trade. And there was some skepticism around “I’m having trouble seeing how they make money”…and it’s like “ok you worry about that and I’ll make money in the stocks”, because frankly who gives a shit how these pre rev biotechs make money a decade from now? All the catalysts and positive story developments that are gonna drive the stock’s trading and are ahead of us. And all those stocks multi bagged hard and most today, 7-8 years later are lower…and yes NOW, more than a half decade later after tons of money was made in the stock, these companies are faced with the issue of how they’re actually gonna make money, and most won’t…. but again, is the objective to make money in the market or figure out with exactness something that doesn’t really matter right now?

All depends, mostly on your approach.  Again, with very rare exceptions the only stocks (i.e., public companies) I buy are those I intend to hold forever without regard to immediate catalysts or positive stories resulting in quick gains.  I think JOE best exemplifies how land holding companies are typically viewed; show us results and then we'll pay up.  Much different than investing in hype, which is just not in my wheelhouse.   

[Cod Liver Oil]

Hey @Marco Van Basten, @73 Reds orients his thinking around the forever hold. It is an efficient way to approach your tax question. LPs  expect quarterly and yearly results and don't want to hear about "forever." That is why I am drawn to the family owner operators; the European guys think generationally.  They can think very long term thematically. @Gregmal and I have discussed high quality trophy assets as a proxy for longevity. A lot of guys think forever is an unrealistic luxury in investing. Of course, you can have your portfolio split between short, medium and long term ideas. Joe is a very long term story and people may worry it is another CWGL. I like the long term stuff and I'm lucky my partners put up with it.

Edited August 25, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Gregmal]

Yup. I’ve got two buckets, one is long term secular/thematic stuff. Long term unbreakable tailwinds with bulletproof balance sheets. The only is more event driven short term catalyst based. The later almost always makes money to the extent I do the work to populate the ideas. And it allows me to  mitigate the lumpiness associated with giving core holding a longer leash as it relates to short term performance. When I was mainly focused on managing OPM the mix wwas probably 20% long term stuff and 80% short term make money today stuff. Now it’s more like 80% long term, 20% short term cuz it’s very time consuming having to be plugged into the short term situations and frankly Id rather do other things with my time than play guessing games about relative short term performance. 
 

 

[73 Reds]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yup. I’ve got two buckets, one is long term secular/thematic stuff. Long term unbreakable tailwinds with bulletproof balance sheets. The only is more event driven short term catalyst based. The later almost always makes money to the extent I do the work to populate the ideas. And it allows me to  mitigate the lumpiness associated with giving core holding a longer leash as it relates to short term performance. When I was mainly focused on managing OPM the mix wwas probably 20% long term stuff and 80% short term make money today stuff. Now it’s more like 80% long term, 20% short term cuz it’s very time consuming having to be plugged into the short term situations and frankly Id rather do other things with my time than play guessing games about relative short term performance. 
 

 

Yeah, for me the short term bucket isn't really short term but more a "taxable" bucket, mostly private investments that generate taxable income.  When it comes to other investments, paying taxes is as bad as when you discover a leak in your water pipes behind the kitchen sink or dishwasher that requires mold remediation and replacement of your entire kitchen - i.e., money lost.  

[Gregmal]

One of my favorite questions over the years was always "do you expect it to outperform the index" and the answer was always "fuck if I know but good luck playing that game".

 

Nobody Ive ever met who's constantly outperformed ever cared about what an index was doing. Honestly for most of my investing life, starting in about 2012, most of the experts have had great confidence that "future returns will be meager", and since 2015 "future returns will be far lower the past returns"....

[Cod Liver Oil]

as @TwoCitiesCapital said in another thread and Greg alludes to here   there is a lot of waiting in this game. It's hard to tell the difference between waiting and opportunity cost in real time.  As long as things are developing well under the surface (Joe, Bollore, Exor, MSG) and my feet are not being eaten by sharks, I kind of enjoy waiting for good things to happen to undervalued companies.  But, as Phil Fisher said, one also needs patience when your excellent companies become overvalued (Apple, Hermes, Costco)) to let them grow into their valuation.  Short term trading in taxable accounts is an economic diversion which may prevent us from doing profoundly stupid things with our core portfolio.

Edited August 29, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Marco Van Basten]

On 8/29/2025 at 11:53 AM, Cod Liver Oil said:

as @TwoCitiesCapital said in another thread and Greg alludes to here   there is a lot of waiting in this game. It's hard to tell the difference between waiting and opportunity cost in real time.  As long as things are developing well under the surface (Joe, Bollore, Exor, MSG) and my feet are not being eaten by sharks, I kind of enjoy waiting for good things to happen to undervalued companies.  But, as Phil Fisher said, one also needs patience when your excellent companies become overvalued (Apple, Hermes, Costco)) to let them grow into their valuation.  Short term trading in taxable accounts is an economic diversion which may prevent us from doing profoundly stupid things with our core portfolio.

You have to be really careful with Madison Square Garden Entertainment.  If Zohran Mamdani gets elected in NYC, and implements even a fraction of his program (cut the police budget by 25%, eliminate prosecution of all misdemeanors including assault, $30 per hour minimum wage, ending admission tests for specialized science high schools, et cetera) then I think the next decade will be very bleak for NYC and hence MSGE.  

[Cod Liver Oil]

A Ugandan who went to the Bronx High School of Science? He is probably charming and intelligent but I would expect more of this :

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/30/politics/zohran-mamdani-police-nypd-defund

It’s tough to score the effects of politics on markets. Did you sell your stock @Marco Van Basten? I’m studying MVB on YouTube. 

 

 

Edited August 31, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[Spekulatius]

Italmobiliare written up in VIC:

 

https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/ItalMobiliare/4470386800
 

MSG discussion does not belong here.

Edited August 31, 2025 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

I would personally also add : Danish A. P. Møller - Mærsk A/S in this pile.

 

CofB&F A. P. Møller - Mærsk A/S topic.

 

 

Edited August 31, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Marco Van Basten]

11 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

A Ugandan who went to the Bronx High School of Science? He is probably charming and intelligent but I would expect more of this :

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/30/politics/zohran-mamdani-police-nypd-defund

It’s tough to score the effects of politics on markets. Did you sell your stock @Marco Van Basten? I’m studying MVB on YouTube. 

 

 

These days, it seems that there is negative correlation between intelligence, as measured by book smarts, and common sense

[Cod Liver Oil]

Nice article which details the whys of this topic well:

https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-capitalism-differences-eaecd208?st=r8iKKm&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

@John Hjorth help me understand how European companies are becoming more entrepreneurial and aligned and less statist. I can't say I love the US government taking stakes in US companies. Sounds like Chinese capitalism with American characteristics. When governments or foundations (HSY, NVO) have big stakes, it changes the DNA of the business.
 

Edited September 1, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil

[John Hjorth]

6 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Nice article which details this topic well: https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-capitalism-differences-eaecd208?st=r8iKKm&reflink=article_copyURL_share

 

@Cod Liver Oil,

 

Thank you for sharing.

 

While I'm a great fan of Roger Lowenstein, and will read this piece later with interest, I will argue that he does not know a lot about i.e. European Capitalism, among other things how fast it is changing in these years on this side of the Atlantic pond. Because it really is.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

@John Hjorth 

 

Help me understand how European companies are becoming more entrepreneurial and less statist. I can't say I love the US government taking stakes in US companies. Sounds like Chinese capitalism with American characteristics. 

 

@Cod Liver Oil,

 

It not exactly that way I perceive things work here [European companies becoming more entrepreneural and less static, so to say 'out of nothing'], thereby also not what I wanted and intended to express above.

 

It's about the continued build-up of abundance of capital and the relentless pressure for return on that capital building up, causing companies to get their act together, because of shareholder pressure for that.

 

Exactly the same way as in America, creating fast guys with a vision for investors, while it is in reality all about self enrichment, the arrival of so callled 'helpers' [Buffett terminology] entities Brookfield-like, growing at simply breathtaking growth rates, getting into really something that eventually may matter on scale, i.e.  Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, one of the original five guys own a large post of shares of a small local bank on operating the isles south of Sealand, called Lolland-Falster in his personal CIP holding company, just for sake of the giggles and the heck of it [], no football team yet, though! His name is Jakob Baruël Poulsen. Now zoom in on 'Baruël', pronounced in Danish 'Baryl' :

 

The Danish Dictionary - ordnet.dk : Baryler :

 

 

If I give this in the two boxes a spin in Google Translate, I get :

 

'troublemaker, element, disturber of the peace, troublemaker, troublemaker, chaos sj., baryler, varyler gl., loon, laban, a bad boy, root1, gamin'

'naughty, rascal, rascal, bully, bully sprout, baryler, a worse one, scumbag neds., scumbag neds., brat neds., scruple, degenerate kids neds.'

 

[Elaboration : 'neds' is an abbreviation for 'nedsættende', means 'condescending']

 

Can it even become more 'American'?  [Personally I think the widest common deminator in the above must be 'punk', btw ]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Banks fleecing, screwing over their dumb customers over here, exactly the same way as it happens in the US is an other example.

Edited September 1, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

Very solid results from Robertet ($RBT.PA)

https://www.actusnews.com/fr/telechargement/robertet/2025/09/11/open/93926-250910-robertet-communique-de-presse-resultats-semestriels-2025-v8_eng.pdf

[Dalal.Holdings]

Well I added more Bollore…ill keep adding in bits as it grinds down

[Cod Liver Oil]

Apologies to @John Hjorth but I have adding to Bollore and Exor. 

[John Hjorth]

<Couch moderating begin>

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Well I added more Bollore…ill keep adding in bits as it grinds down

 

41 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Apologies to @John Hjorth but I have adding to Bollore and Exor. 

 

Please post such stuff in the 'What are you buying today' CofB&F topic, because those posts above aren't really contributing to the discussion about 'Dynastic European Companies'.

 

<Couch moderating end>

 

-And please leave me out of it!, - my weekend started 50 minutes ago! 

Edited September 19, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

The better question is why are Bollore shares trending down? I did not see any news and the 6 month realist did not disclose anything materially new either. The squeeze out of Moncier, Artois and Cambodge went into some roadblock c, so they are just doing it the slow way gobbling up shares in the market from time to time. They also keep buying back Bollore shares themselves.

 

Odet used to own ~60% and now they own 71% of Bollore and it’s mostly due to Bollore buybacks (because that’s where the cash is now). The worm Ouroboros keeps eating itself.

Edited September 20, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Cod Liver Oil]

@jeremy what’s going on with the micro squeeze outs? Tons of stuff going on behind the scenes. I assume Bollore will eat the tail of Odet which remains and the family name will stand alone. UMG will probably get fully distributed. There is value in the entire chain so we own it all. 

Edited September 20, 2025 by Cod Liver Oil