Argentina

[james22]

On 1/18/2024 at 7:24 AM, Spooky said:

Does anyone know any good resources that go in depth on the history of Argentina's economic problems?

 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/9870563457

[Cod Liver Oil]

 @dinar and Druk think Milei is the real deal. Does it follow that we should put some usd to work in Argentina? If so, what are the best opportunities? 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

 @dinar and Druk think Milei is the real deal. Does it follow that we should put some usd to work in Argentina? If so, what are the best opportunities? 

Pampa is very well managed, but it has had a monster run.  LOMA is cheap.  

[hasilp89]

31 minutes ago, Dinar said:

LOMA is cheap.  

interesting idea thanks for sharing.

 

[fareastwarriors]

We have another Argentina thread already:

 

 

@Parsad please merge

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 12/1/2024 at 2:41 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

How it started (1 year ago): He's dangerous

 

How it's going: he has a lot of lessons to teach the world

 

Pretty funny 180 from The Economist (and many other pundits)

 

 

 

The fact that mainstream economists and pundits wrote this guy off tells you all you need to know.

 

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-economic-activity-grows-77-april-above-expectations-2025-06-30/

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-inflation-cools-may-lowest-over-five-years-2025-06-12/

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentina-milei-rent-control-free-market-5345c3d5

 

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/deregulatory-lessons-from-argentina-how-javier-milei-lowered-rental-prices-40/

 

Quote

Argentina inflation tumbles to five-year-low 1.5% in boost for Milei

 

Quote

BUENOS AIRES, June 30 (Reuters) - Argentina's economic activity rose 7.7% in April compared with the same month last year, the biggest annual increase in around three years, official data showed on Monday.

 

Quote

While rents are still up in nominal terms, many renters are getting better deals than ever, with a 40% decline in the real price of rental properties when adjusted for inflation since last October, said Federico González Rouco, an economist at Buenos Aires-based Empiria Consultores.

Quote

Once President Javier Milei took office, he repealed the Lipovetzky Law by decree, which quickly reversed its effects. Rental unit supply increased by over 170 percent, and real rental prices dropped by 40 percent from October 2023 levels.

 

 

[whiskybravo]

9 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

The fact that mainstream economists and pundits wrote this guy off tells you all you need to know.

 

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-economic-activity-grows-77-april-above-expectations-2025-06-30/

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-inflation-cools-may-lowest-over-five-years-2025-06-12/

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentina-milei-rent-control-free-market-5345c3d5

 

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/deregulatory-lessons-from-argentina-how-javier-milei-lowered-rental-prices-40/

 

 

 

 

 

Preach!  Milei is just the kind of politician Brussels would do all in its power to undermine.  

 

Silly Dems in NYC nominate a communist.  Gee, I wonder what will happen to the supply of apartments?

[Libs]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

The fact that mainstream economists and pundits wrote this guy off tells you all you need to know.

 

 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-economic-activity-grows-77-april-above-expectations-2025-06-30/

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-inflation-cools-may-lowest-over-five-years-2025-06-12/

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentina-milei-rent-control-free-market-5345c3d5

 

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/deregulatory-lessons-from-argentina-how-javier-milei-lowered-rental-prices-40/

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great post, thank you. He's teaching the world a lesson: we need more free enterprise, not less. I just love this.

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-08/argentina-bonds-slump-on-milei-s-defeat-in-buenos-aires-vote?srnd=homepage-americas

 

If Milei falls out and the Peronists come back, Argentina goes back to being uninvestable

[treasurehunt]

12 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-08/argentina-bonds-slump-on-milei-s-defeat-in-buenos-aires-vote?srnd=homepage-americas

 

If Milei falls out and the Peronists come back, Argentina goes back to being uninvestable

 

Damn, I was hoping Milei would get at least four years to try out his libertarian approach. Seems unlikely now. I thought things were going better than many expected, but I guess not in the eyes of the Argentinian electorate.

[Spekulatius]

This should not have been a surprise if you follow Argentina politics. he has been mired in corruption scandal regarding his sister who runs the disability agency and also his campaign. It is not great idea to put relatives in government roles on the first place and this one and this one  ay cost him.

 

Also shooting the messenger (he fired the attorney who disclosed this issue in secret (?) recording instead of his sister won’t help either.

 

[scorpioncapital]

It's interesting how they got secret recordings. It seems someone must have suspected something was up beforehand?

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

It's interesting how they got secret recordings. It seems someone must have suspected something was up beforehand?

It’s so easy to record something. Everyone is wearing a wire now with ubiquitous Smart Phones.

 

Just for context, the above clip was published about 1 week before the election.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/u-s-treasury-chief-hints-at-argentina-financial-rescue-334a3b3c?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

Quote

Bessent in a series of posts on X laid out the options administration officials are reviewing to backstop Argentina if the country under President Javier Milei’s leadership can’t overcome its financial woes. 

 

“These options may include, but are not limited to, swap lines, direct currency purchases, and purchases of U.S. dollar-denominated government debt from Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund,” Bessent said. He said the administration continues to believe “fiscal discipline and pro-growth reforms are necessary to break Argentina’s long history of decline.”

 

I guess as long as you are in the Right Wing Club, you'll get a bailout from the supposedly "America First" White House these days

[Spekulatius]

On 9/22/2025 at 12:21 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/u-s-treasury-chief-hints-at-argentina-financial-rescue-334a3b3c?mod=hp_lead_pos3

 

 

I guess as long as you are in the Right Wing Club, you'll get a bailout from the supposedly "America First" White House these days

For context, I recall two times when Argentina went on a reagonomics like reform binge, fixed the deficit and the currency stabilized only only to fall apart due exogenous forces and internal political (voters got fed up with lack of progress, corruption . Those were in the mid 90‘s and early 2000. In the later case it was the GFC that did them in.

 

Also to keep in mind, the former government has was whacked by the COVID-19 crisis which affected the Argentina economy substantially and triggered a spending binge that this country could not afford.

 

Foreign money and investors are wary of Argentina and pull the rug quickly when they see trouble unlike with most other countries. Based on some economics comments I read, it seems to me that Milei is much took focused on  keeping the Peso/USD exchange rate stable, which can quickly drain foreign reserves at the central bank. This is done fight inflation (a depreciating Peso will cause more inflation) but it also causes the issue that some Argentinian industries don’t remain competitive.

 

One of the problem with Argentina is that the economy remains very resource and AG products dependent and never really build out a manufacturing base. This is the a result of the resource sector being so successful in the early 20th century (1900-1950) that they didn’t need manufacturing and just imported those goods. The problem is resource industries don’t employ a lot of people so the solution became to give them basically government service jobs instead.

Edited October 11, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

For context, I recall two times when Argentina went on a reagonomics like reform binge, fixed the deficit and the currency stabilized only only to fall apart due exogenous forces and internal political (voters got fed up with lack of progress, corruption . Those were in the mid 90‘s and early 2000. In the later case it was the GFC that didn’t in.

 

Also to keep in mind, the former government has was whacked by the COVID-19 crisis which affected the Argentina economy substantially and triggered a spending binge that this country could not afford.

 

Foreign money and investors are wary of Argentina and pull the rug quickly when they see trouble unlike with most other countries. Based on some economics comments I read, it seems to me that Milei is much took focused on  keeping the Peso/USD exchange rate stable, which can quickly drain foreign reserves at the central bank. This is done fight inflation (a depreciating Peso will cause more inflation) but it also causes the issue that some Argentinian industries don’t remain competitive.

 

One of the problem with Argentina is that the economy remains very resource and AG products dependent and never really build out a manufacturing base. This is the a result of the resource sector being so successful in the early 20th century (1900-1950) that they didn’t need manufacturing and just imported those goods. The problem is resource industries don’t employ a lot of people so the solution became to give them basically government service jobs instead.
 

think within though many more countries will get the Srgentina treatemens.

Bessent talking about a $20bn aid package for Argentina. For context, the entire USAID budget for 2024 was $21bn.  It was cancelled to save money and put America first. 

[Marco Van Basten]

2 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Bessent talking about a $20bn aid package for Argentina. For context, the entire USAID budget for 2024 was $21bn.  It was cancelled to save money and put America first. 

Actually that seems to be false on both counts.  https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-foreign-aid-does-the-us-provide/country/united-states/

[dwy000]

25 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Actually that seems to be false on both counts.  https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-foreign-aid-does-the-us-provide/country/united-states/

Thats all foreign aid. I was referring to USAID, the agency that ha mostly been shut down

 

https://usafacts.org/explainers/what-does-the-us-government-do/agency/us-agency-for-international-development/

[Spekulatius]

There are elections in October and Milei got a warning shot. They want to help Milei win this election, that’s why this aid package is done so quickly.

[Marco Van Basten]

3 hours ago, dwy000 said:

Thats all foreign aid. I was referring to USAID, the agency that ha mostly been shut down

 

https://usafacts.org/explainers/what-does-the-us-government-do/agency/us-agency-for-international-development/

According to AI overview of Google Search, USAID exact budget is complex due to co-managed accounts but total appropriations managed by USAID in FY 2024 were over $35bn.  It is very nice that we cannot even get an accurate figure on what the actual budget is.  

[dwy000]

46 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

According to AI overview of Google Search, USAID exact budget is complex due to co-managed accounts but total appropriations managed by USAID in FY 2024 were over $35bn.  It is very nice that we cannot even get an accurate figure on what the actual budget is.  

I literally used the same source that you did. 

 

The point was not whether It was $21bn, $35bn or some other number, the point was we severely cut foreign aid on the basis that we couldn't afford it and it wasnt helping America.  And now we are looking at providing $20bn of aid to a basketcase country perpetually on the edge of default solely because Trump likes him.  

[changegonnacome]

38 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

And now we are looking at providing $20bn of aid to a basketcase country perpetually on the edge of default solely because Trump likes him.  

 

Everywhere you look its policy to patronage....this time to Trump-esque figures in foreign lands.....Milei in Argentina with this muted $20bn.....literal bilateral terms of trade altered between the USA and Brazil to aid the Brazilian Trump (Bolsonaro) with his Jan 8th tribute insurrection & attempted steal....America first my ass

[moatrep]

The rise and fall of argentina has to do with the rise and fall of the british empire and the building of the Panama Canal. Since then they are far away from the world trade routes. They are an extractive economy and have some human capital from the mass immigration from europe in world war 1 and 2, but by now that capital is almost depleted. The country's gdp doesn't grow from 2011, 15 years ago.

Since then debt has grown around 10% per year. So now it's the worst moment for the country, going in the likes of 100% debt to gdp.

Add to that that there was a bankrun where the goverment froze the financial system in 2001, and changed all deposits in dollars to pesos (what depreciated the peso 400% in a few months). This undermined the trust in the peso and financial system.

And that the goverment of Cristina Kirchner in 2008 nationalized all private pensions and took debt from them to finance useless public proyects (with corruption in the middle). 

Now all capital looks depleted: pensions, trust, human capital, industry, deposits. Before you got one or the other, now only the commodities is left. 

You also have a structural problem in the goverment, where by a law from 1988 the main tax revenues are divided between provinces by percentages that were negotiated on that moment. The province of buenos aires with 39% of the population only gets 20% back of the national revenues that are in this pool, which are the taxes in earnings and VAT. That province has most of the population and votes more for the left. The population only knows a socialist and predatory version of capitalism, so it has some logic.. Milei won mostly because of the dire economic situation and desire for change. But the public tend to be left leaning.

Also in the 90's all the liberal ideas were tried and the system collapsed (mostly it collapsed by corruption and external factors), so that influences the public opinion to be left leaning.

If you think of industry, there is no reason to put industry in argentina, mexico or brasil are more near to the world, and have similar costs of manual labour. Also taxes in argentina are incredibly high, so a big portion of the economy is informal, but navigating that is a mess for investors. Tax collection is low because of the strong tax evation, and taxes are high because of the low tax collection (a vicious cycle that makes taxes ridicusly high) . 

Simply put the only atractive aspect is the extraction of resources. And the strategic interest of the US in Argentina (holds soft power in the region with high level of education, 

influential culture, large spanish speaking population, footbal) to keep the region peaceful. 

Edited September 25, 2025 by moatrep

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-10/bessent-s-big-gamble-on-argentina-has-a-narrow-road-to-pay-off?srnd=homepage-americas

 

The odds don't look great for Scottie B's $20B bet on Argentina

 

Quote

In the past week-and-a-half or so, Argentina’s Treasury burned through $1.8 billion to prop up the currency and keep it within the band it’s supposed to trade in – and was reckoned to be running low on funds before Bessent stepped in. US intervention triggered a peso rebound as well as a surge in government bonds on Thursday. The country’s markets were closed Friday for a public holiday.

 

Edited October 10, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[dwy000]

6 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-10/bessent-s-big-gamble-on-argentina-has-a-narrow-road-to-pay-off?srnd=homepage-americas

 

The odds don't look great for Scottie B's $20B bet on Argentina

 

 

Scottie B is just the one placing the bet. Its our tax money he's gambling with. All while cutting funding to things that actually benefit America.