Fairfax 2025

[Junior R]

4 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I found some comments in this interview regarding the impact on Tariffs.  I believe the western Canadian agricultural companies have had experience dealing with Tariffs such as when China implemented it on Canola and India a few years ago on legumes. 

 

https://www.ckom.com/2025/01/27/listen-what-impact-will-tariffs-have-on-agt-foods-and-the-agriculture-industry/

 

 

Nice find...This is the only thing I can see directly impacting Fairfax Financial...There could be indirect as consumers might not spend as much as the restaurants

 

  

[nwoodman]

https://stories.jobaaj.com/news-updates/india/budget-2025-from-74-to-100-fdi-in-insurance

This has been doing the rounds for a while. Seems as though it has been confirmed

[MMM20]

So do we get to pick up some FFH shares on the stupid cheap? Or does it not sell off as much as stuff in the indexes? Do the Canadian markets rip as people pull their money back from US and start boycotting US products? Will Canadians end up boycotting BRK and buy their homegrown FFH? Invert, always invert? Or does this end up as more sound and fury signifying nothing? 

 

Edited February 2 by MMM20

[nwoodman]

The irony is not being in the index might help.  Not to mention that fall in the Loonie and what it means for their large non-Canadian earning streams.  But who knows, Mr Market is going to do his thing.

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, nwoodman said:

The irony is not being in the index might help.  Not to mention that fall in the Loonie and what it means for their large non-Canadian earning streams.  But who knows, Mr Market is going to do his thing.

FFH is still in the S&P/TSX Composite so it does get impacted. It should be something investors switch into in the Financials given USD exposure. 

[nwoodman]

15 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

FFH is still in the S&P/TSX Composite so it does get impacted. It should be something investors switch into in the Financials given USD exposure. 

True, I was referring to TSX60 inclusion and thinking that this may be more susceptible to declines in systemic downturns than the composite due to higher institutional flows i.e. Vol amplification. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

6 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

True, I was referring to TSX60 inclusion and thinking that this may be more susceptible to declines in systemic downturns than the composite due to higher institutional flows i.e. Vol amplification. 

You make a good point for sure. I think each are about 4% of the float so definitely helps to have half the selling pressure. 

[Dinar]

I remember the first day after Brexit, some European stocks that had nothing to do with Brexit, like Hermes were down 20%+ before recovering.  I figure CP/CNI could be down 5-15% in USD, Fairfax who knows but could easily open down 10-20% which would be absurd.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

28 minutes ago, Dinar said:

I remember the first day after Brexit, some European stocks that had nothing to do with Brexit, like Hermes were down 20%+ before recovering.  I figure CP/CNI could be down 5-15% in USD, Fairfax who knows but could easily open down 10-20% which would be absurd.  

 

Fingers crossed  

 

Would love to buy more at those prices. 

[hardcorevalue]

I don’t we are going to get som 10% tsx sell off or anything although I’d love to be wrong. 

[Parsad]

17 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

I don’t we are going to get som 10% tsx sell off or anything although I’d love to be wrong. 

 

Yeah, I don't think we'll see that unless the tariffs are prolonged or we see a recession...both of which are very possible.  Cheers!

[Hoodlum]

Also, we still don’t know if Trump will pull back at the last minute.   Anything is possible. 

[Parsad]

6 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Also, we still don’t know if Trump will pull back at the last minute.   Anything is possible. 

 

Pull back maybe...but he's not known to pull out!  Eric!  Tiffany!    Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

25 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Pull back maybe...but he's not known to pull out!  Eric!  Tiffany!    Cheers!

 

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

I remember the first day after Brexit, some European stocks that had nothing to do with Brexit, like Hermes were down 20%+ before recovering.  I figure CP/CNI could be down 5-15% in USD, Fairfax who knows but could easily open down 10-20% which would be absurd.  

 

Air Canada will be in 20% category 

[KFRCanuk]

What is in FFH's bond portfolio? Is it all US treasuries?

[LC]

6 minutes ago, KFRCanuk said:

What is in FFH's bond portfolio? Is it all US treasuries?

Edited February 3 by LC

[UK]

Also:

 

[dartmonkey]

11 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

Also, we still don’t know if Trump will pull back at the last minute.   Anything is possible. 

I doubt Trump would pull back without having first obtained some concession from Canada, and since he hasn’t really asked for anything particular, I don’t see how he would have gained anything by pulling back now. 

 

But I agree that there is probably a large element of negotiation here, so maybe after some major disruption on both sides of the border, he could convene a peace conference, and obtain some major concessions, many of which would actually be good for Canada anyways. My list would be:

-ending the already very high tariffs Canada puts on many US imports

-ending supply management on eggs, poultry, dairy 

-opening our markets to investments and acquisitions in air transportation, banking, telecoms, media, etc

-spending our fair share on defence

-tightening our immigration and refugee policies 

 

Canada would have said no to all of these 6 months ago, and would probably say ok to all if the choice is between that and 25% tariffs. There’s nothing like staring disaster in the face for actually realizing we could compromise on less important things, most of which would actually help our economy anyways. 

 

[backtothebeach]

Dang a few seconds before the open FFH was at bid/ask C$1800. Sometimes the pre-open bid/ask (at identical prices which one can not trade until the open) indicates real supply and demand, and one can snatch or sell 100 shares at that price. My heart was pounding lol. But is was not to be, in the last couple of seconds it changed to 1900-1920 or so.

[gfp]

45 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Dang a few seconds before the open FFH was at bid/ask C$1800. Sometimes the pre-open bid/ask (at identical prices which one can not trade until the open) indicates real supply and demand, and one can snatch or sell 100 shares at that price. My heart was pounding lol. But is was not to be, in the last couple of seconds it changed to 1900-1920 or so.

 

I was distracted by a locked heat pump compressor and still managed to get a fill at 1925 CAD.  Looks like some trades went off below 1900 this morning but not me.

[Junior R]

I got some orders in at $1924 lol

[Hoodlum]

Fairfax certainly had good timing with the Stelco sale. 

[Hoodlum]

This morning National Bank analyst upgraded Fairfax from $2400 to $2600.  This is the 2nd upgrade in the past week from different analysts, likely anticipating excellent results from Q4 and 2024 as a whole.  

 

I am curious to see what we did for buybacks and extending bond durations over the past couple months.

 

[Daphne]

Addressing one dartmonkey point, the US already has 16 banks operating in Canada as well as banks from many other countries. These claims appear to be more smoke not dissimilar to the false assertions around drug and migrant flow from Canada.