2023: the year of cash and t-bills

[dealraker]

4 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

2013	8%
2014	25%
2015	-20%
2016	40%
2017	-26%
2018	-17%
2019	20%
2020	-5%
2021	47%
2022	-4%
2023	77%

 

Pretty good year for me.

Especially taking into account that at the start of 2023, my portfolio was 3x the size it was before due to adding cash coming from real estate.

That makes this years 77% completely dwarf all the previous years in absolute terms and has had a big impact on my total net worth.

Though in full disclosure, my total net worth is still only a small fraction of someone like @dealraker 

 

The good:

• Half of my returns this year came from a 450% gain on UBS calls --> this was a special situation that turned out perfectly as expected.
• The rest came from loading up on options in November (JOE +75%, SAVE +140%, BYON +250%).
• Couple of stocks also did well: Nintendo +20%, FFH +22%, Google +30%.

The bad:

• MANU calls went to 0
• CPNG calls down 40%
• GXE down 18%

Overall I guess what I got right this year was position sizing, especially being able to concentrate and average down in high conviction ideas.

Now let's hope I don't screw this up next year. 

 

 

I'll take your portfolio...

....and your age!  Any day.

 

[dealraker]

23 minutes ago, Spooky said:

I could be off too - I am just doing quick and dirty calculations through Questrade.

I think you're right.  Most everything I write these days has errors...no matter how much time I spend creating it.  Drives me nuts!  One of those things that creeps up on you with time, or at least on me.  

[dwy000]

just out of curiosity, how is everyone calculating returns?  I contribute and take cash out of my investing account on a regular basis during the year so it's not just a clean "end of yr compared to beginning of year".  If you add cash in December the dilutive effect should be substantially lower than adding that same amount in February.  Conversely, if you add cash and buy a stock in December and it immediately goes up 20% it should have an outsized impact vs buying some stock and having it immediately go up in February.

 

Do you just use the IRR or XIRR function, have the broker do it or something else?  I've always done it like a mutual fund where there's a "unit price" and then I add or subtract cash at the previous week's unit price.  But it's a lot of work and I'm not sure if it's the same calculation method that others use.  

Edited December 29, 2023 by dwy000

[Parsad]

15 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

just out of curiosity, how is everyone calculating returns?  I contribute and take cash out of my investing account on a regular basis during the year so it's not just a clean "end of yr compared to beginning of year".  If you add cash in December the dilutive effect should be substantially lower than adding that same amount in February.  Conversely, if you add cash and buy a stock in December and it immediately goes up 20% it should have an outsized impact vs buying some stock and having it immediately go up in February.

 

Do you just use the IRR or XIRR function, have the broker do it or something else?  I've always done it like a mutual fund where there's a "unit price" and then I add or subtract cash at the previous week's unit price.  But it's a lot of work and I'm not sure if it's the same calculation method that others use.  

 

My brokerage accounts do a time-weighted return accounting for inflows and outflows of capital.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Congrats! Very impressive, considering this was without employing margin/leverage (I think).

 

Thank you for maintaining this forum!

 

Only leverage was some Macy's call options in the non-taxable accounts.  Did not hold Macy's in my corporate or cash accounts.  Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

18 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

just out of curiosity, how is everyone calculating returns?  I contribute and take cash out of my investing account on a regular basis during the year so it's not just a clean "end of yr compared to beginning of year".  If you add cash in December the dilutive effect should be substantially lower than adding that same amount in February.  Conversely, if you add cash and buy a stock in December and it immediately goes up 20% it should have an outsized impact vs buying some stock and having it immediately go up in February.

 

Do you just use the IRR or XIRR function, have the broker do it or something else?  I've always done it like a mutual fund where there's a "unit price" and then I add or subtract cash at the previous week's unit price.  But it's a lot of work and I'm not sure if it's the same calculation method that others use.  

 

A place to start [, by Joel Stevens, [ @austinvalue ], our CoBF member @racemize ] :

 

Austin Value Capital [writings : Writing - Measuring returns ]

 

 

 

[dwy000]

Just now, John Hjorth said:

 

A place to start [, by Joel Stevens, [ @austinvalue ], our CoBF member @racemize ] :

 

Austin Value Capital [writings : Writing - Measuring returns ]

 

 

 

Thanks John.  I'm pretty comfortable with each of the methods I was more curious as to which one others used to ensure it was apples to apples.

[james22]

29 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

just out of curiosity, how is everyone calculating returns?

 

Good question.

 

Retired, I withdraw from my investable assets for expenses.

 

So I do simply compare year end to beginning.

 

Undervalues my "investing" returns (+20%), but more fairly reflects my reality (+16%).

 

Makes it hard to compare to others, maybe, but I'm also less aggressive now then when working.

 

And much less aggressive than the college kid gambling with his $1K Robinhood portfolio.

[John Hjorth]

@dwy000,

 

Years ago, I did spend many hours each year on such excercises, with what I would label immaterial differences to a straight IRR calculation as outcome. Pragmatism made me leave this activity for good, as immaterial. But YMMV, dependant on how stable [to which degree stable] your capital base is.

 

Progress in our endavours to become richer aren't really measured in 0.1 percentages! 

Edited December 29, 2023 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

~19%, with S&P500 at ~24%.

Edited December 29, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Paarslaars]

22 hours ago, Gregmal said:

So…how’d everyone do?

Btw how did you? I believe most of your major positions went up a lot this year.

[dealraker]

21 hours ago, Parsad said:

Up 61% on average in corporate, non-taxable accounts.  Cash accounts were up 26%...they were half Fairfax or Fairfax & some Meta.

 

Non-taxable accounts are now about 65% cash and rising as I roll over t-bills...these are opportunistic accounts.  I maintain cash accounts at 50:50 Fairfax and cash...totally comfortable holding FFH long-term...will do far better than just t-bills and the stock is liquid enough.  Corporate account is 35% FFH, 35% other long-term equities and 30% cash...this is long-term, quality holdings that compound nicely.

 

2023 may have been my single greatest year in dollar gains, and is pretty close to number 1 in overall percentage return personally!  Cheers! 

I missed this post.  Superb investing Parsad and your posts are a nice part of my life to read.  I'm not and could never be as certain as you are as to buy/sell investment concentration and it would be a disaster for me to try to mimic it.  But I do invest using my best skill and my best skill is knowing who is good at what they do as to investing.  And you are damn good.  

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Btw how did you? I believe most of your major positions went up a lot this year.

I have not tallied everything and don’t plan too since I really don’t do much of anything but handle my own money anymore(plus as someone else mentioned, it’s a constant compounding journey and it doesn’t mean anything really that the calendar changed) but probably somewhere between 60-70%. Helped indeed by being 1.3-1.5x margined through the cash euphoria faze. Sticking to quality helped, and didn’t have any stinkers. Sized things well. Traded well when I needed to. Was pleased with my overall discipline as last year I made a point to shift to more quality buy and hold and this year transaction volume was probably 1/10 of what it woulda been for me 5-10 years ago. The journey and evolution are always ongoing though. 
 

Overall I spent significantly less time focused on investing and significantly more time enjoying life and that was the biggest win and basically the point of owning the type of quality in such concentrated fashion.

[dealraker]

30 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I have not tallied everything and don’t plan too since I really don’t do much of anything but handle my own money anymore(plus as someone else mentioned, it’s a constant compounding journey and it doesn’t mean anything really that the calendar changed) but probably somewhere between 60-70%. Helped indeed by being 1.3-1.5x margined through the cash euphoria faze. Sticking to quality helped, and didn’t have any stinkers. Sized things well. Traded well when I needed to. Was pleased with my overall discipline as last year I made a point to shift to more quality buy and hold and this year transaction volume was probably 1/10 of what it woulda been for me 5-10 years ago. The journey and evolution are always ongoing though. 
 

Overall I spent significantly less time focused on investing and significantly more time enjoying life and that was the biggest win and basically the point of owning the type of quality in such concentrated fashion.

Nice Greg.

[Libs]

Wow, some great results, and I'm glad the heavy lifters here like Greg and Parsad went huge. They deserve it.

 

As for myself, up 28%, without holding any of the MAG 7. No mishaps to speak of. Notables:

 

GLASF + 128%

LUMINE + 85% (seemingly all in the last 10 weeks)

JOE + 59%

CNSWF +59%

PATHWARD +24%

 

 

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Overall I spent significantly less time focused on investing and significantly more time enjoying life and that was the biggest win and basically the point of owning the type of quality in such concentrated fashion.

Nice to hear! I also made that switch with regards to main positions, most of which are in the 10-25% range so basically 5 stocks. This allows me to manage my investments in combination with a full time job as I am not rich enough yet to quit my day job getting closer though.

[DooDiligence]

18 hours ago, Eldad said:

22% with 25% ST Treasury. Kids accounts that only buy CSU and similar during panics continue to crush.

 

You are right HSY is an extremely profitable, high return, well managed CPG company. I have about 1.5% holding already, but I need to take advantage of these rare cheap shares. Thanks for the conviction. 

 

I Googled and read a bunch of SWOT's and they all say the same thing(s). Biggest threat I see would be if they came out with a line of transgender Hershey bars. They already offer with or without nuts and I worry that might become an issue : ] => Seriously though, a stupid domestic acquisition spree could screw things up.

 

To me Hershey looks like the Louis Vuitton of US chocolate. Boring and predictable with lowish but acceptable growth prospects. Thank Ozempic for the fear. I'm not a big chart guy but this was at a 52 week high last May and has steadily made new lows with a few little upturns along the way. I bought a small tracker and am hoping it goes sub $180 and maybe lower for a long term hold. We'll see.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hersheys-bitter-ending-to-2023-shows-innovation-will-be-key-to-success-in-2024-says-analyst-203431326.html

 

Can this be moved to the Hershey thread?

Edited December 30, 2023 by DooDiligence

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, dealraker said:

I missed this post.  Superb investing Parsad and your posts are a nice part of my life to read.  I'm not and could never be as certain as you are as to buy/sell investment concentration and it would be a disaster for me to try to mimic it.  But I do invest using my best skill and my best skill is knowing who is good at what they do as to investing.  And you are damn good.  

 

Thanks dealraker!  I'm at the point now where I may have to change up my style a bit.  I've got more than enough to last me if I just hit a few doubles here and there.  No need for the homeruns anymore.  Cheers! 

[Viking]

+35% for the year. The driver was Fairfax - simply an amazing year. I also had lots of single base hits - the volatility made trading around positions work really well (oil, US banks, retail etc). The run the last three years with Fairfax has been epic (at least that is how my kids would likely describe it). The crazy thing is i think Fairfax has lots left in the tank (it continues to be my largest holding by far).
 

I have also started to diversify my portfolio. I now hold 25% in index funds: XIC.TO, VOO and VO. About 1/3 in each. My total portfolio is now of a size that i want to put a big chunk of it on ‘set and forget’. My plan is to grow the index portions to +50% in the coming years. Part of that is wealth preservation - versus going for maximum return.
 

Historically, my strength has been avoiding bear markets. My weakness the past couple of bear markets is being too cautious coming out of them. Index funds are a nice solution: lock in the gains and stay invested.

 

Today, other than Fairfax, i don’t have any ‘strong conviction’, table pounding, ideas. A little surprising - to me at least. I see lots of cheapish things but not much that i think will materially outperform an index. So i am happy to increase my allocation to index funds because i am bullish on the economy and stocks in general in the coming years.  
 

Of course, all of this could change. And that is what i love about investing. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Viking

[WayWardCloud]

+18% for me

 

Biggest winners have been

Amazon calls

Live Nation commons

Global-E commons

 

Biggest losers have been

Nvidia puts based on nosebleed valuation and a desire to hedge my gains on other stuff

Accumulating looooots of GM calls because I was excited by their Cruise autonomous division

 

The Nvidia loss was just stupid, no excuses. The GM one on the other hand I'm actually proud of myself for managing the position well. If I had been right I stood to make a life changing amount of money and by trading around the position and having strong safeguards I managed to only get wounded a lil bit when the whole thing imploded. Very asymmetrical bet and a good training in allocation although it would be an understatement to say it didn't go my way.

 

As far as 2024 is concerned, I'm entering it passively invested with 75% in a whole world ETF and 25% in a US Bonds ETF.

Maybe I've finally learned that I have no edge, maybe something will show up to get me out of the index but right now nothing too obvious jumps at me and I'm not a cash person so I'm going to lay down like a sleepy alligator in the vanguard swamp and just let you guys value and price things efficiently for me please and thank you.

Edited December 30, 2023 by WayWardCloud

[nwoodman]

+44%.  Thanks FFH and Mr Market.  Running 1.3x’s leverage,  so I take my hat off to those unleveraged board members with alphas of 20-40%, truly impressive.  

[UK]

It was a very good year:). Up 74 percent pretax in EUR.

 

META & other from magnificent 7, FFH, JOE, BRK and some lesser/more speculative things. Also was ~120 percent invested at the start of the year.

 

Big thanks to Parsad, Viking, Gregmal, gfp and many other participants of this wonderful forum!

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by UK

[thepupil]

About +18%

 

will post more fulsome thoughts later. I feel fine about it. Think the significant underperformance was very much deserved. Didn’t have much conviction in anything this year. 

[Paarslaars]

14 minutes ago, thepupil said:

About +18%

 

will post more fulsome thoughts later. I feel fine about it. Think the significant underperformance was very much deserved. Didn’t have much conviction in anything this year. 

I don't think +18% is underperformance if you did not have any magnificent 7 in the portfolio.

[james22]

4 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

I'm going to lay down like a sleepy alligator in the vanguard swamp

 

Poetry.