Cryptocurrencies

[rkbabang]

Today is the first time I've ever sold a crypto-currency.  I just sold 42% of my crypto for a ~30,000% gain.   I intend to hold the rest and add more on the dips almost forever.  With the recent run-up in ETH my goal to sell less than half and be able to pay off my main mortgage, my investment property mortgage and have some left over to hold in cash has been met.  I probably should have sold a few days ago, but you never hit the exact top and I will now be debt free and my airbnb property will pay my housing costs completely (taxes, insurance, utilities, cleaning fees, operating costs) for all of my properties even renting it just for a few months every year.  Even if all crypto goes to zero from here this has been the best investment of my life and probably won't be equaled by me other than if the crypto I still hold goes up tremendously from here (and I suspect it will). 

 

[JRM]

I guess let's invert the issue.  What if instead of focusing on making electricity production for Bitcoin "green" we spent that time and money on making the existing grid more "green".  Powering homes, EVs, and industrial loads with renewable energy seems like a more noble cause than generating heat in a warehouse somewhere in China.  

There is not an unlimited amount of resources in the ground necessary to make solar panels and batteries.  Why waste our resources on mining Bitcoin only to slow adoption where it actually matters.

I also read an argument that mining for gold is bad for the environment, too, so we should all switch to Bitcoin.  It's ironic because mining for precious metals is necessary to build the processors, the electrical conductors, and the renewable power sources for the mining operations.

I'm not trying to crap on Bitcoin, just the energy waste seems counterproductive.

Also, this is good for a laugh: https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/dogecoin-co-creater-calls-elon-musk-self-absorbed-grifter

[SharperDingaan]

20 hours ago, rkbabang said:

Today is the first time I've ever sold a crypto-currency.  I just sold 42% of my crypto for a ~30,000% gain.   I intend to hold the rest and add more on the dips almost forever.  With the recent run-up in ETH my goal to sell less than half and be able to pay off my main mortgage, my investment property mortgage and have some left over to hold in cash has been met.  I probably should have sold a few days ago, but you never hit the exact top and I will now be debt free and my airbnb property will pay my housing costs completely (taxes, insurance, utilities, cleaning fees, operating costs) for all of my properties even renting it just for a few months every year.  Even if all crypto goes to zero from here this has been the best investment of my life and probably won't be equaled by me other than if the crypto I still hold goes up tremendously from here (and I suspect it will). 

 

Congratulations!

Ths is one of the main reasons why we keep repatriating capital. At the end of day, the investment proceeds have to be meaningfull enough to change 'real life' going forward, or it's just not worth it. The next bit is 'reinvention' - as playing golf every day is dead boring.

SD

Edited May 15, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[rkbabang]

38 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Congratulations!

Ths is one of the main reasons why we keep repatriating capital. At the end of day, the investment proceeds have to be meaningfull enough to change 'real life' going forward, or it's just not worth it. The next bit is 'reivention' - as playing golf every day is dead boring.

SD

Thanks. Absolutely, I'm still young (in my late 40s), so I'm not quitting my day job.  I'll just be living even further below my means.

 

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, rkbabang said:

Today is the first time I've ever sold a crypto-currency.  I just sold 42% of my crypto for a ~30,000% gain.   I intend to hold the rest and add more on the dips almost forever.  With the recent run-up in ETH my goal to sell less than half and be able to pay off my main mortgage, my investment property mortgage and have some left over to hold in cash has been met.  I probably should have sold a few days ago, but you never hit the exact top and I will now be debt free and my airbnb property will pay my housing costs completely (taxes, insurance, utilities, cleaning fees, operating costs) for all of my properties even renting it just for a few months every year.  Even if all crypto goes to zero from here this has been the best investment of my life and probably won't be equaled by me other than if the crypto I still hold goes up tremendously from here (and I suspect it will). 

 

Congrats that's badass 
 

 

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, rkbabang said:

Today is the first time I've ever sold a crypto-currency.  I just sold 42% of my crypto for a ~30,000% gain.   I intend to hold the rest and add more on the dips almost forever.  With the recent run-up in ETH my goal to sell less than half and be able to pay off my main mortgage, my investment property mortgage and have some left over to hold in cash has been met.  I probably should have sold a few days ago, but you never hit the exact top and I will now be debt free and my airbnb property will pay my housing costs completely (taxes, insurance, utilities, cleaning fees, operating costs) for all of my properties even renting it just for a few months every year.  Even if all crypto goes to zero from here this has been the best investment of my life and probably won't be equaled by me other than if the crypto I still hold goes up tremendously from here (and I suspect it will). 

 

Way to go rkbabang!  Your one of the few who can say you've actually been to the moon!  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

Great fun riding shitcoins up and down all the day - but literally the COUNTRY of Ireland's national health IT system has been taken offline with a bitcoin denominated ransomware attack today in the middle of a vaccine rollout.....~5 million people in the middle of global pandemic held hostage!!!

Here's the vaccine registration portal in Ireland right now:

https://vaccine.hse.ie/

Thanks Bitcoin - and all you laser beam eyed morons - Colonial pipeline and the south eastern United States says thanks too

Charlie M nailed it on May 3rd on Bitcoin "disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization. I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful to kidnappers and extortionists and so forth"

Edited May 15, 2021 by changegonnacome

[TwoCitiesCapital]

31 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Great fun riding shitcoins up and down all the day - but literally the COUNTRY of Ireland's national health IT system has been taken offline with a bitcoin denominated ransomware attack today in the middle of a vaccine rollout.....~5 million people in the middle of global pandemic held hostage!!!

Here's the vaccine registration portal in Ireland right now:

https://vaccine.hse.ie/

Thanks Bitcoin - and all you laser beam eyed morons - Colonial pipeline and the south eastern United States says thanks too

Charlie M nailed it on May 3rd on Bitcoin "disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization. I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful to kidnappers and extortionists and so forth"

Guess we're just going to ignore all of the ransoms ever demanded that were denominated in U.S. dollars and all other currencies as well. Why don't we blame the currencies in those instances but rather the bad actors? I guess Bitcoin made them do it...

Edited May 15, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[changegonnacome]

5 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Guess we're just going to ignore all of the ransoms ever demanded that were denominated in U.S. dollars and all other currencies as well. Why don't we blame the currencies in those instances but rather the bad actors? I guess Bitcoin made them do it...

The standard Bitcoin has nothing to do with these crimes arguments......guns dont kill people, people kill people argument....I got it. Heard it before.

Bitcoin definitely solved one use case the 'oh shit how am I gonna get paid a ransom anonymously, remotely and not get caught' problem....and I expected laser beamed eyed mofos to say "what about cash" its the same...dont blame the mechanism of exchange for criminals, blame the criminals....only problem is some laser beamed eyed mofo needs to pick cash up from somewhere physically and then carry it, hide it, launder it & hope nobody sees or finds the cash while its being washed/carried around. Hope nobody rats them out. The risk/reward for criminals is completely skewed by the invention/propagation of bitcoin. It is not as you claim it to be simply a mechanism/inanimate object misused inside of a crime.....it is rather an enhancer/enabler of crime - a superior technology for the carrying out of crime. No?

My one question to you TwoCitiesCapital - your wife/child/partner is kidnapped....you pay a ransom.....but they murder the them anyway to protect their own identify.......you desperately hope to bring the killers to justice.......in order of ranking which transaction method (cash, bitcoin, wire/ach) provides the greatest probability that that will NEVER happen?

I'll take the test for you the highest probability of complete escape for criminals from prosecution is as follows:

(1) Bitcoin

(2) Cash

(3) Bank Wire

Bitcoin clearly has a causation effect on increasing fraud, kidnapping, extortion, ransomware.......how could it not........it increases the probability criminals will get away with it.....it removes a deterrent, reduces barriers to entry. To argue this isnt true in a week the southeastern United States was nearly brought to a standstill and a whole countries medical system was taken offline in the middle of pandemic......with bitcoin as one of the key enabling technologies at the heart of the scheme is some feet of mental gymnastics. Who's bread I eat, his song I sing.....i guess.....presume you've made some money on BTC/cypto recently @TwoCitiesCapital? 

[changegonnacome]

@TwoCitiesCapital And sorry before you come back and say - well they used email to send the ransom note........you going to blame the invention of email??? mobile phones? text messages? THE VERY INTERNET itself?  I see how these conversations go in the past........

No I'm not - none of those things are motivations - they are different.........the crime is perpetrated to extract value itself......bitcoin sits at the very heart of the crime.....it is the vehicle that contains the reward for the crime.....it is not email, it is not the internet......its value (and enhanced probability of evasion) sits at the heart of the crime itself

Edited May 15, 2021 by changegonnacome

[TwoCitiesCapital]

The 9/11 terror attacks were literally financed in USD, but not one single person here is demanding that we drop transacting in USD because it's "disgusting" or "evil." 

Companies were hacked before Bitcoin. Ransoms were demanded before Bitcoin. I don't blame Bitcoin for their continued existence. I don't blame the US dollar for 9/11. 

And as stated several times, anonymity on a public ledger is a pipe dream as every transaction/node is a security risk of exposing you. 

Edited May 15, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[TwoCitiesCapital]

And as if to prove my point...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-wallet-used-darkside-ransom-195933543.html

The wallet used for the BTC transactions in the pipeline hack have already been identified, the techniques for laundering the cash supposedly unveiled, and the potential to identify the individuals exists. Oh, and they were hacked themselves because ALL of this is on a public ledger....

Edited May 15, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

And as stated several times, anonymity on a public ledger is a pipe dream as every transaction/node is a security risk of exposing you. 

Why then the currency of choice for global criminals....Colonial Pipeline/Ireland health system attack......its because its a better widget for crime than USD/gold/diamonds and apart from its increased usefulness in getting away with serious crimes. It hasn't improved my life/my friends lifes one little bit........and maybe ask people in Ireland what they think of bitcoin now, is it a net positive for them.

The bitcoin crowd carry on like we didn't have a digital payments system before it came along and saved us...that we were stuck in some ancient bartering system in the town square...........I fail to see its use case apart from being a speculative vehicle and superior meduim of exchange for the proceeds of crime.

My bet @TwoCitiesCapital if you choose to accept it ...................is that Uncle Joe B and the European Union agrees with me more than you and your going to see some VERY VERY aggressive moves by (SEC, DoJ, Fed, ECB, ESME) to purge BTC/crypto on ramps / off ramps in the next twelve months with a corresponding fall in BTC's value of greater than 50% from its 52 week high ~$64k............I will bet you a..........quarter of million.......satoshis  .......to be delivered to your BTC wallet by May 15th 2022 if I'm wrong? Deal?

My laser eyes are hurting now......and they must rest..........look forward to your response in the morning.

[Gregmal]

Eh 50% from its highs...still puts it at about +12% for the year. Plenty of people cant even do that yet they'll dance home calling it a "crash"!

[SharperDingaan]

Just to stir the pot.....

Even the criminals demonstrate that BTC is the currency of choice!!!

Ever since the Silk Road debacle, competitors have tried to shut down BTC as the preferred payment currency - 'cause it interferes too much with the state black market arms, drug, and oil deals. Yet BTC is still with us today, and stronger than ever - just like venerial disease!

BTC ransoms are NOT INTENDED TO BE SPENT. The ransomer TELLS YOU the wallet to pay into, and is well aware that every 'outgoing' transaction from that wallet will attract unwanted scrutiny. Hence, it is identical to losing your key to your wallet - the BTC in that wallet are permanently lost.

There aren't many people good enough to do this, and it is a small community. Should investigation ever become truly theatening to BTC ownership, those people quickly sleep with the fishes. Game theory applied at multiple levels, remains alive and well.

Most commercial targets get hacked because it is relatively bloodless, an insured cost of doing business, and their IT security is sh1te. Furthermore, nothing is really going to change while ransom costs exceed the insurance costs, Sure, it sucks for the user - but that is the choice your management has DELIBERATELY made. Either put heads on spikes, or vote with your feet.  

Obviously it is a profitable business, as is pirating - but a limited term engagement. Do too much of it, and the militaries shut you down - as it is a lot cheaper/safer to arrange for sleeping hackers, than it is to engage in a shooting match. Gaming can be such a bastard!

SD

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by SharperDingaan

[TwoCitiesCapital]

8 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Eh 50% from its highs...still puts it at about +12% for the year. Plenty of people cant even do that yet they'll dance home calling it a "crash"!

+1 

No doubt in my mind that we'll experience a 50% decline at some point this year. I doubt due to regulatory action from Biden et al as is being suggested but simply because Bitcoin booms/busts like any new technology that is rapidly gaining traction but is still unproven. 

These are the same arguments that were made back in 2017 (energy intensity and criminal usage). The information is out there to suggest we're blowing both WAY out of proportion, but people would rather latch onto confirmation bias of why they missed out on it as opposed to changing their thinking (btw - this characterized me back in 2017 as I also latched onto the energy intensity argument but ultimately changed my mind with new information). 

 Nobody cares how much power google data centers use when they're watching  a cat video on YouTube or streaming Netflix. Nobody cares how much energy intensity goes into centralized banking with ATM and branch networks. Nobody cares that the USD has been used in ransomware attacks and to finance terrorism and drugs. Nobody cares that Tesla sells vehicles in coal powered jurisdictions that make their vehicles dirtier than gasoline burning engines. But god forbid Bitcoin use any electricity or be used in a some ransomware attacks because that obviously makes it evil....

 

[changegonnacome]

9 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Eh 50% from its highs...still puts it at about +12% for the year. Plenty of people cant even do that yet they'll dance home calling it a "crash"!

"Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted" the E=Mc2 guy

My point was never one focused on relative returns..........its a public commons discussion, a question of net benefit to the civilization/society.........my 50% drop bet in Bitcoins value in the next 12 months is just a measurable yard stick by which we can come back and see how the infrastructure of the state will now respond to the negative externality caused by the invention of crypto/bitcoin.......and it should IMO

The G7 are going to bring a wrecking ball to this space in the next 12 months

Edited May 15, 2021 by changegonnacome

[JRM]

20 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

These are the same arguments that were made back in 2017 (energy intensity and criminal usage). The information is out there to suggest we're blowing both WAY out of proportion, but people would rather latch onto confirmation bias of why they missed out on it as opposed to changing their thinking (btw - this characterized me back in 2017 as I also latched onto the energy intensity argument but ultimately changed my mind with new information). 

 

The energy consumption in 2017 was a fraction of what it is today, and my understand is the consumption rises (linear or exponential?) as price goes higher.  Discussing these issues with someone who has made up their mind on Bitcoin is like arguing with a gold bug.  

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/14/as-the-price-of-bitcoin-has-climbed-so-has-its-environmental-cost

[Spekulatius]

On 5/15/2021 at 10:08 AM, SharperDingaan said:

Just to stir the pot.....

Even the criminals demonstrate that BTC is the currency of choice!!!

Ever since the Silk Road debacle, competitors have tried to shut down BTC as the preferred payment currency - 'cause it interferes too much with the state black market arms, drug, and oil deals. Yet BTC is still with us today, and stronger than ever - just like venerial disease!

BTC ransoms are NOT INTENDED TO BE SPENT. The ransomer TELLS YOU the wallet to pay into, and is well aware that every 'outgoing' transaction from that wallet will attract unwanted scrutiny. Hence, it is identical to losing your key to your wallet - the BTC in that wallet are permanently lost.

There aren't many people good enough to do this, and it is a small community. Should investigation ever become truly theatening to BTC ownership, those people quickly sleep with the fishes. Game theory applied at multiple levels, remains alive and well.

Most commercial targets get hacked because it is relatively bloodless, an insured cost of doing business, and their IT security is sh1te. Furthermore, nothing is really going to change untill the insuance costs exceed the ransom costs, Sure, it sucks for the user - but that is the choice your management has DELIBERATELY made. Either put heads on spikes, or vote with your feet.  

Obviously it is a profitable business, as is pirating - but a limited term engagement. Do too much of it, and the militaries shut you down - as it is a lot cheaper/safer to arrange for sleeping hackers, than it is to engage in a shooting match. Gaming can be such a bastard!

SD

 

 

 

You can’t shut down Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, but you could deter institutions or even citizens from owning and using it, via taxes, money laundering laws etc.

If you can’t use it, any crypto currency is pretty worthless, imo.

It is also true that the marginal cost (which consist of energy and depreciation for crypto mining equipment) is set by the price of the cryptocurrency , so the more valuable crypto becomes, the higher the consumption of resources.

 

I think we would have a similar problem if we were on gold standard without inflation. We would have to dig for more and more gold if the economy expands to create enough currency to facilitate trade and have a enough gold as A store value (outside of the productive economy).

 

From a macro economic perspective, it is quite interesting to see how this is going to play out. Maybe there is a play here in Iceland real estate or some utilities in countries with an abundance of cheap energy, besides the obvious AMD and NVDA. 

Edited May 16, 2021 by Spekulatius

[LearningMachine]

54 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

the more valuable crypto becomes, the higher the consumption of resources.

... and more expensive each crypto transaction gets.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

5 hours ago, JRM said:

 Discussing these issues with someone who has made up their mind on Bitcoin is like arguing with a gold bug.  

Same could be said for people who rehash the same arguments against that have been addressed for years. The difference? I admitted I was wrong about BTC after 6-7 years of celebrating its crashes. I changed my mind after actually deciding to research what it was and the value it provides after it clearly demonstrated its staying power. 

So to suggest that I'm stubborn and not open to changing my mind simply because I refuse to hold Bitcoin to a different standard than literally everything else in my life seems like a made-up narrative. 

I understand arguments like its volatility prevents large scale adoption. I understand why central banks may not want to give up their monopoly control of the  money supply. I understand that there are competing cryptos that MAY become more dominant.

What I can't understand is why someone who uses a traditional banks, or Christmas lights, or streaming networks, or drives an electric vehicle , or participates in countless other activities that leverage electricity to make life more convenient can pretend to have a moral issue with Bitcoin's power consumption.  

Edited May 16, 2021 by TwoCitiesCapital

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

What I can't understand is why someone who uses a traditional banks, or Christmas lights, or streaming networks, or drives an electric vehicle , or participates in countless other activities that leverage electricity to make life more convenient can pretend to have a moral issue with Bitcoin's power consumption.  

Imagine someone came up with a new type of Christmas lights……….that consume 20x the amount of power of old Christmas lights………the only incremental improvement these new 20x power consuming Christmas lights have is that they are the preferred Christmas lights of extrontists, kidnappers and degenerate gamblers. People argue these new type of Christmas lights should become the defacto Christmas lights for the global economy. Perhaps even the reserve currency Christmas lights. That’s what bitcoin is.

We have a currency already, its both digital & analogue, widely accepted, easily transferred with an at scale digital payments system processing zillions of transactions a second and has built around it an infrastructure which gives ‘bad guys” headaches around how they might get paid without getting caught for X,Y,Z crime. I like the old Christmas lights better.

[Gregmal]

How long does an ACH take? Why do trades still take multiple days to settle? Why do banks still take in some cases DAYS! to clear a check? Ever dug into the uselessness of the margins dept at financial institution? Why do wires take hours to even days?

What, now? because they've finally bothered to provide us with the "instant transfer" and charge us 1% for it shit is solved? Chosing to look at the issue like you are above is being deliberately ignorant. 

I'm not really a huge believer in crypto. As I detailed here, in real time, I saw a trade I thought was outrageously easy and did really well with it. Bought everything with the highest basis being about $11k and have been steadily selling little bits ever since. I still own some, but in no way do I consider this stuff buy the dip material. If you didnt already have a position before it broke $20k I think you're better off waiting til things cool down. But applying some sort of narrow minded and silly ethical application to an investment case is just locking yourself into never making money. People rooting against crypto act is if theyre making money when it goes down(they call it "crashing" but if I had to guess, BTC has crashed its way to better performance than most of its haters have mustered up)...but most I would assume arent making money shorting it...and if you arent trying to understand it, its probably best to just move on rather than wasting time rooting against it for hobby. 

[JRM]

Tools have been available to track individual transactions and help locate wallets, so I don't view Bitcoin as anonymous; and hence not great for committing large scale crime. One of the last 'features' of USD is small transactions can still be done anonymously.  

My guess is Elon figured out that nobody was going to pay capital gains tax on their Bitcoin position to buy a Tesla.  To turn such an abrupt 180 on such a sketchy basis makes me think he is trying to appease somebody.

As as the energy use argument; I think it comes down to a difference of opinion.  We are both aware of the facts, and we arrive at different places.  That does not make me anti-crypto or anti-Bitcoin.  I think we have different thresholds for functional utility vs energy use.  Also, I use LED Christmas lights, so I don't really notice the effect on my energy bill.  I live in a part of the country where some people keep their lights up all year, so maybe that's part of the problem.

[SharperDingaan]

Fact is, Ireland's health care system screwed up in a very public way, and it brought down a good portion of Irelands health care services. The Irish powers that be, knew they were exposed and CHOSE to do nothing about it. Didn't think it would ever happen - now it is just a panic to keep ones head.

The ransomers just rubbed their nose in it. 20M pounds is a ridiculously cheap ransom, relative to what the health care system spends EVERY DAY. https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/05/irelands-healthcare-system-taken-down-after-ransomware-attack/

Blame everything, and everyone else - just not us!

Sorry .. you 'eff up, you wear it, nobody else. Accountability is a bitch.

SD

Edited May 17, 2021 by SharperDingaan