73 Reds Posted February 20 Posted February 20 (edited) 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: He doesn’t make the value estimate, Morningstar’s computer does. He is responsible for the terrible estimates and moat evaluation. Well, I can't think of a more important "moat" for an insurance company than underwriting discipline. Investment discipline is a close second and they're getting there. Just to spite him I bought some more today. Edited February 20 by 73 Reds missed line
Hoodlum Posted March 14 Posted March 14 Mr. Horn provided another update today, although I am unable to see it. https://www.morningstar.com/company-reports/1456919-fairfax-has-been-buoyed-by-strong-market-conditions-and-some-smart-bets
dartmonkey Posted March 14 Posted March 14 30 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Mr. Horn provided another update today, although I am unable to see it. https://www.morningstar.com/company-reports/1456919-fairfax-has-been-buoyed-by-strong-market-conditions-and-some-smart-bets https://global.morningstar.com/fr-ca/actions/rsultats-de-fairfax-financial-holdings TL;DR French: Essentially he acknowledges that 2025 was a good year but it won't be repeated, and he maintains his C$1730 target (down 24% from today's price) for this firm with no competitive advantages, in an environment with softening insurance prices and because despite a good year, Fairfax's investment returns over the long term have been irregular.
Hoodlum Posted March 14 Posted March 14 12 minutes ago, dartmonkey said: https://global.morningstar.com/fr-ca/actions/rsultats-de-fairfax-financial-holdings TL;DR French: Essentially he acknowledges that 2025 was a good year but it won't be repeated, and he maintains his C$1730 target (down 24% from today's price) for this firm with no competitive advantages, in an environment with softening insurance prices and because despite a good year, Fairfax's investment returns over the long term have been irregular. So just the same as any other update. Thanks
cwericb Posted March 14 Posted March 14 My wish for a Christmas present: A public debate on the subject of Fairfax Financial between Brett Horne and Viking.
Parsad Posted March 14 Posted March 14 3 hours ago, cwericb said: My wish for a Christmas present: A public debate on the subject of Fairfax Financial between Brett Horne and Viking. The thing is, if you have some sort of economic event, the stock could move down to Horne's price target (which should also be noted has moved up 10-12 times since his original target of like $730 CDN in Q1 2023 over 3 years ago). So that would be a qualified, but undeserved, win for Horne. Whereas if you based the results on actual analytical work and made investments on that work, Viking would not only be right over the same 3 years, but the stock price would be at Horne's current target and the investor still made a shitload of money! I think Horne should just find another line of work he is more qualified for...maybe a Starbucks barista! That being said, I'm particularly fond of my properly made Brown Sugar Oat Cortado and Horne is often wrong on things. If he messed up my Cortado, I would have to mess him up! Cheers! 1
dartmonkey Posted March 14 Posted March 14 Another more positive way of seeing this is that even Horne seems to agree that the value of FFH is increasing rapidly. After all, in February 2023, he said the shares were worth C$730, and now 3 years later he says they're worth C$1730. In other words, they have gotten 137% more valuable in 3 years, or 33% annualized. If fair value growth keeps up this pace, then shares will be fairly valued at today's price (C$2267), even by Horne's exacting standards, in less than a year. Hmmm, maybe that's why investors think they're worth $2267? I guess even a loser company with no competitive advantages is worth something, when it's growing at 33% a year, right?
Gregmal Posted March 16 Posted March 16 On 3/14/2026 at 1:08 AM, Parsad said: I think Horne should just find another line of work he is more qualified for...maybe a Starbucks barista! Nah, I think the focus here on Horne is rather stupid. Horne is hardly an outlier, he is an analyst, and this is what analysts do. They serve very little general purpose in terms of usefulness. Their job is to entertain suckers whose requisite is shortcuts or lack of accountability to their investment outcomes. On a deeper level, anyone doing the work themselves doesnt need any analysts, and any analyst worth a fraction of his weight gets quickly poached on the buyside. As Ive said before, I think analysts should be banned unless its coming from a purely analytical based investment/media company because otherwise, the conflicts of interests and misalignments are obvious; how else are loss generating sell siders at big banks reconciled otherwise?
Eldad Posted March 18 Posted March 18 He is kind of a hater on everything. They only thing I know of that he always loves more than the market is JKHY.
Mystery Guest Posted March 21 Posted March 21 I look at these guys the way I look at Jim Cramer, a paid circus clown, a noisy distraction for the weak hands, they encourage churn and frequent trading. Driving the average Joe to an investment advisor out of frustration, who will calm the waters, claim he has better intel, and earn a commission keeping the customer in some sort of index based portfolio. The solution is self education and temperment. No Offense to anyone on this board working as an investment advisor. If a person has a nervous disposition they should indeed LEAVE IT TO THEIR ADVISOR, and just keep feeding their portfolio.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 23 Posted March 23 On 3/21/2026 at 6:22 PM, Mystery Guest said: I look at these guys the way I look at Jim Cramer, a paid circus clown, a noisy distraction for the weak hands, they encourage churn and frequent trading. Driving the average Joe to an investment advisor out of frustration, who will calm the waters, claim he has better intel, and earn a commission keeping the customer in some sort of index based portfolio. The solution is self education and temperment. No Offense to anyone on this board working as an investment advisor. If a person has a nervous disposition they should indeed LEAVE IT TO THEIR ADVISOR, and just keep feeding their portfolio. I don’t think that’s the correct framing for Morningstar. They are quants herding investors towards “quality”. They depend on the analyst for the moat analysis and the financial forecast. Their model comes up with the target price based on that. Fairfax just doesn’t screen well. Earnings are highly unpredictable. Revenues are cyclical.
Viking Posted March 24 Posted March 24 When I read the reports of some analysts like the guy at Morningstar I can’t help but think of the following video (with the management team at Fairfax being represented by Dave Grohl and the Foo Fighters).
Crip1 Posted March 24 Posted March 24 (edited) On 3/24/2026 at 2:52 AM, Viking said: When I read the reports of some analysts like the guy at Morningstar I can’t help but think of the following video (with the management team at Fairfax being represented by Dave Grohl and the Foo Fighters). Envoking the Foos... Yet another reason to appreciate you, Viking. -Crip P. S. I play in a Foo Fighters tribute band in Dallas, TX Edited May 5 by Crip1
ValueNation Posted May 5 Posted May 5 Our favourite analyst's thoughts are out again: https://global.morningstar.com/en-ca/stocks/fairfax-earnings-solid-underwriting-offset-by-investment-losses?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link His estimate of fair value didn't rise this time...
zippy1 Posted May 5 Posted May 5 8 hours ago, ValueNation said: Our favourite analyst's thoughts are out again: https://global.morningstar.com/en-ca/stocks/fairfax-earnings-solid-underwriting-offset-by-investment-losses?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link His estimate of fair value didn't rise this time... By sampling the price-to-fair-value (P/FV) ratio at major "step" intervals on the chart, we can see how the market typically premiums this specific Fair Value estimate: Date Period Estimated Price (C$) Fair Value (C$) P/FV Multiplier Current (May 2026) 2,258.09 1,850.00 1.22x Jan 2026 (Peak) ~2,550.00 ~1,700.00 1.50x July 2025 ~2,450.00 ~1,500.00 1.63x Jan 2025 ~2,000.00 ~1,250.00 1.60x July 2024 ~1,500.00 ~1,150.00 1.30x Jan 2024 ~1,250.00 ~950.00 1.31x July 2023 ~950.00 ~750.00 1.26x The stock price rarely touches the Fair Value line. Instead, it tends to bottom out around a 1.2x to 1.3x multiplier (as seen in July 2023, Jan 2024, and the current May 2026 dip). So now is a good time to buy if you trust Brett.
roundball100 Posted May 5 Posted May 5 8 hours ago, ValueNation said: Our favourite analyst's thoughts are out again: https://global.morningstar.com/en-ca/stocks/fairfax-earnings-solid-underwriting-offset-by-investment-losses?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link His estimate of fair value didn't rise this time... What one hopes for from a financial analyst is someone who can predict future earnings, much as we expect a true scientist to build models that help make predictions which are then tested/verified by experiments. This differs from, say, historians who try to explain the past. Some people argue that many economists have difficulty even building models that explain the past. Perhaps the analyst in question is really a failed economist who cannot even explain the past.
Parsad Posted May 5 Posted May 5 14 hours ago, ValueNation said: Our favourite analyst's thoughts are out again: https://global.morningstar.com/en-ca/stocks/fairfax-earnings-solid-underwriting-offset-by-investment-losses?utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=linkshare&utm_source=link His estimate of fair value didn't rise this time... This chart is hilarious on it's own. It gets even funnier if you went back to 2020! Why give this guy any attention or viewership. He's as stuck in his own head as someone waiting for markets to collapse for years and years. You cannot change his opinion, even though he has to constantly adjust his targets to justify his opinion...a virtuous cycle with no end in sight! Cheers!
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