Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Loss Horizon]

1 hour ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Some people think Americans want a weaker Europe--no, we want a stronger, more self confident Europe -- the one that was the birthplace of the enlightenment and many other legacies that America was founded upon.

 

Just defeat liberals and Europe is great again?

[Dalal.Holdings]

5 minutes ago, Loss Horizon said:

My failed bet on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHA0.F/ is suddenly paying out. Looks like China can't do completely everything in industrial engineering and manufacturing after all.

The auto suppliers have been hit thanks to the suicidal policies that devastated the European sector. AKW.PA is another and a net-net. If Europe changes from its suicidal path, these will do well. If it continues on the path, I wouldn’t want to own them

[Dalal.Holdings]

4 minutes ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

Just defeat liberals and Europe is great again?

Prioritize building again. It will require deviating from the leftward regulate+ degrowth/climate nutjob path that Europe has been on.

 

Edited December 15, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Loss Horizon]

4 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Prioritize building again. It will require deviating from the leftward regulate+ degrowth/climate nutjob path that Europe has been on.

 

 

Those things probably mean something specific to you, but without context it doesn't tell me anything. What's your top 10 most problematic regulations?

[Dalal.Holdings]

6 hours ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

Those things probably mean something specific to you, but without context it doesn't tell me anything. What's your top 10 most problematic regulations?

I’ve already discussed this endlessly in this thread. Start with AI Act, EUDR, GDPR, DSA, DMA, ICE ban (now delayed to 2040), CBAM, German anti-nuclear movement, UK PIP, UK anti-North Sea drilling…

 

I’m not going to rehash it all for you. I’ve already gone into these things on here.

 

Edited December 15, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[UK]

Good summary ot top makro problems: https://archive.is/7Td6S

[Gregmal]

Yea it's incredible but really just the same behavior you get from NYers and CA people too. The problems are clear as day, and whenever its raised they look at you blank faced and tell you they arent aware of those issues, that they dont really exist, and that its all a far right conspiracy theory.....

[SharperDingaan]

13 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Prioritize building again. It will require deviating from the leftward regulate+ degrowth/climate nutjob path that Europe has been on.

 

 

Look to the coming Canadian infrastructure build-out  ..... there will be a variety of bond and equity opportunities. Then keep in mind that as tidewater oil flows rise, CAD becomes more of a petro currency ... so there will ALSO be a FX gain on capital eventually repatriated home  Whereas that same capital going to the US ... will come back with a FX loss as USD continues to lose reserve currency status. The presence of Orange Boy as purely a bonus!

 

The BRICS have moved to a 40% gold backed currency for trade settlements amongst themselves. A result being that so many US T-Bills have rolled off to buy bullion ... that the Fed Reserve had to step up with an immediate commitment to USD 40B/month of QE5 ... and no cumulative total limit. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/peter-schiff-slams-federal-reserve-s-plan-for-buying-treasury-bills-qe-by-any-other-name-is-still-inflation/ar-AA1S8pAx

 

All good!

 

SD

 

 

Edited December 15, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, UK said:

Good summary ot top makro problems: https://archive.is/7Td6S

Yes it has been an ongoing phenomenon and the fact that so few in Europe have been willing to discuss/acknowledge it is astounding. Even now if you go to Euro financial publications like FT or Economist, the headlines have been "Trump this, Trump that", but very little in terms of facing this huge problem on the continent.

 

As the German Welt opinion guy said...we're entering a period where Europe seems less relevant on the world stage since antiquity...

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/why-germany-wants-a-divorce-with-china-0d59fb81

 

Germany (and by extension EU) was all for free trade with China while it was benefitting. Now things have changed however. I think this is the right move.

 

Quote

FRANKFURT—For two decades, Germany and China were an economic couple made in heaven, both benefiting handsomely from booming global trade: Germany supplied the machines China needed to make consumer goods for the rest of the world.

Now China no longer needs Germany—and Germany wants a divorce.

For the first time in decades, German businesses and politicians are questioning the unfettered free trade that turned the country into an industrial powerhouse. Its manufacturers want protection from cheaper, faster and increasingly better Chinese rivals. 

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said last month that Berlin would protect domestic steelmakers from Chinese competitors. His government has tightened a ban on Chinese components in mobile-data networks and it has signaled support for “buy-European” clauses for public tenders.

In its first meeting in November, Merz’s newly created National Security Council addressed the strategic risks of China’s dominance of several critical minerals. It is now working on diversification measures, according to a German official.

 

[Libs]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea it's incredible but really just the same behavior you get from NYers and CA people too. The problems are clear as day, and whenever its raised they look at you blank faced and tell you they arent aware of those issues, that they dont really exist, and that its all a far right conspiracy theory.....

 

I've been up against  that 'blank face' (perfect description, Greg!) here in CA for decades. But sometimes the answers you get are even worse than blank-face......

 

A year ago I asked one "what is your greatest fear of a Trump Presidency?" 

She said, immediately: "Destroying the environment."

Me: "Ok. But we've done quite a job cleaning things up the last 50 years - I remember sometimes struggling to breathe here because of the smog in the 70's. But now environmental regulations are so burdensome..... isn't it possible some of them go too far?

She shot back: "No. There can never be too much environmental regulation."

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

Yes it has been an ongoing phenomenon and the fact that so few in Europe have been willing to discuss/acknowledge it is astounding. Even now if you go to Euro financial publications like FT or Economist, the headlines have been "Trump this, Trump that", but very little in terms of facing this huge problem on the continent.

 

As the German Welt opinion guy said...we're entering a period where Europe seems less relevant on the world stage since antiquity...

 

 

 

It's so much easier to blame Trump rather than admit to your citizens you are a fool.

Edited December 15, 2025 by cubsfan

[Loss Horizon]

18 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

AI Act, EUDR, GDPR, DSA, DMA, ICE ban (now delayed to 2040), CBAM, German anti-nuclear movement, UK PIP, UK anti-North Sea drilling…

 

Good list! I will take a look at those.

 

17 hours ago, UK said:

Good summary ot top makro problems: https://archive.is/7Td6S

 

Nice article.

 

Not all points are good though. The decrease in number of patents in Euro area looks the same as in US, what's the point?

 

The graph of energy prices is missing a very  important development, as it happened in this forum thread already. The years of 2022 and 2023 were outliers and it was the peak of the energy war. The EU has transformed the whole energy sector in a couple of years after Russia closed the biggest pipe, and the prices are going down. I would consider it as a major win and a sign of immense capability of the EU countries. Here are more recent prices:

 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Electricity is more problematic and it's a separate discussion, but some good steps are already taken there.

 

People like to blame the bureaucracy for all problems, but I think that relationship with China and developments in China are a much bigger problem, which doesn't have anything to do with bureaucracy and regulation. There is a new big topic in China called "Involution", which refers to over production and overly aggressive state subsidies paid by Chinese taxpayers. China has had a massive boost in immediate competitiveness, but it's not yet clear if their progress is sustainable long term.

Edited December 16, 2025 by Loss Horizon

[Sweet]

More needed but a start

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/eu-poised-water-down-landmark-2035-ban-new-diesel-and-gasoline-cars.html

[NnnnotSoSmart]

On 12/13/2025 at 4:06 PM, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Suppose it depends on who the fishermen are?  

Saying that, I followed Charlie into BABA a few years back and later regretted it.  

Sold out for a sizable loss. I won't be fishing in China again.

Speaking of fishing....Recent Li Liu interview on th subject:

 

"2. Go fishing where there are fish.

Another unique contribution of Charlie is that he expanded the scope of application of value
investing. He has a famous saying that investment is like fishing. There are two important
principles for fishing: the first is that you should go fishing where there are fish, and the second
is that you should never forget the first principle. The same is true for investment. Where can you
find your circle of competence? How to build a circle of competence? Our time is very limited.
He said that you should go to places where there are really fish, where it is easier to build a circle
of competence, and where there are more choices after it is established. Following this concept,
Charlie expanded value investing from the earliest focus on severely undervalued companies in
the United States to great companies with high growth in the United States, and further expanded
to places outside the United States where there are still many great companies and are in a growth
period. This makes it possible to practice value investing globally.

 

https://moiglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/li-lu-on-charlie-munger-202412.pdf

 

[Sweet]

Holy crap, these people are utter clown:

 

“

The European Commission has watered down its plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2035.

 

Current rules state that new vehicles sold from that date should be "zero emission", but carmakers, particularly in Germany, have lobbied heavily for concessions.

 

Under the European Commission's new plan, 90% of new cars sold from 2035 would have to be zero-emission, rather than 100%.”

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crk78y7k8ezo

[Gregmal]

Yup. We see total garbage like that, and then will get the “whats so wrong with Europe?” blank stare questions from people.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/12/16/eu-carmakers-to-comply-with-90-emissions-reduction-by-2035-as-full-combustion-engine-ban-s

 

Quote

European Union-based carmakers will need to comply with a 90% reduction in CO2 emissions from 2035, instead of the 100% previously set in EU law, the European Commission announced today, revoking a controversial wholesale ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles adopted in March 2023. 

Manufacturers will have to compensate for the remaining 10% of emissions by using low-carbon steel produced in the EU or by using sustainable fuels such as e-fuels and biofuels.

 

Xi is laughing out loud

[NnnnotSoSmart]

On 12/14/2025 at 5:41 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Some people think Americans want a weaker Europe--no, we want a stronger, more self confident Europe -- the one that was the birthplace of the enlightenment and many other legacies that America was founded upon.

 

Ken Griffin- The Western World needs Europe to Succeed :

 

[cubsfan]

35 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

Ken Griffin- The Western World needs Europe to Succeed :

 

 

Nice concise 2 minute clip which reflects why all Americans wish Europe to succeed.

[Loss Horizon]

 

I was following the natgas situation in EU in Germany in 2022-2023 very closely.

 

By the start of the war in February 2022 Putin had EU by the throat. The storage facilities in Europe were mostly empty at that moment. Over 60% of gas in Germany was coming from Russia, the industry was dependent on gas, and homes are largely heated by gas. According to German law, homes take priority, so in case of rationing it was industry which would suffer a lot.

 

By the autumn of 2022 everyone was watching how gas storage was filled in preparation to winter. It was a massive relief when the critical milestone was hit sooner than expected.

 

Then Germany has built its first LNG terminals in 9 months: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelmshaven_LNG_terminal

When shit got serious the government moved rapidly:

 

Quote

Unusually, environmental impact assessments were explicitly skipped according to Robert Habeck, a Green party politician and the environmental affairs minister in the current German government, saying "ensuring Germany was no longer blackmailable by Putin had to take priority."

 

The market did the rest, as the global market of LNG is distributed and largely independent. The traders noticed high European prices and redirected vessels there. Russia is selling LNG too, but in much smaller quantity, and most importantly, they can't blackmail there like in case with the pipe.

 

--------------------

 

Interestingly, I was looking to buy an apartment in 2023. I came around a listing where the seller disclosed unusually high heating costs. I looked deeper into the documents and found that it was natgas heating, and the owners were afraid of fuel prices rising even higher. They decided to double monthly prepayment for the year just to be on the safe side. I already knew that the prices are going down, and that the owners will likely get significant reimbursement after the year is closed. But other buyers were scared of that. Sadly, it didn't work out for me for other reasons, but it was a chance to spot a hidden gem, which nobody else noticed.

[Loss Horizon]

14 hours ago, Sweet said:

More needed but a start

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/eu-poised-water-down-landmark-2035-ban-new-diesel-and-gasoline-cars.html

 

I did not believe for a second that the 2035 ban of ICEs will happen. It's just not possible technically, economically and socially. I think people underestimate ability of people to change course of actions based on reality, even if it's European regulators. Btw, critics of Trump often make the same mistake, assuming that his administration is incapable of adjusting announced moves.

 

My bet on Toyota is going slightly below S&P500, but at least without AI exposure. Curiously, Toyota is criticized a lot for slow transition to electric cars, but the stock was never too cheap in recent years.

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yup. We see total garbage like that, and then will get the “whats so wrong with Europe?” blank stare questions from people.

 

Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

It's the usual generalizations about how things evolve in Europe from the other side of the Atlantic Pond. Some places, in the Northern parts of Europe, the transition to EVs is allready happening, taking place at full swing, and will even eventually a lot of places in Europe take care of it self over time, no matter what some dumb, deranged boneheads in Brussels may decide.

 

EV penetration, measured by market share, in EU :

 

 

Please note this chart is for EU, not Europe. Thus, Norway and UK are grey. It's common knowledge here, that Norway is 'Tesla Land #1' - 'Drill, baby drill' - make a lot of money on that - then go buy a Tesla! 

Edited December 17, 2025 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

7 hours ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

I did not believe for a second that the 2035 ban of ICEs will happen. It's just not possible technically, economically and socially. I think people underestimate ability of people to change course of actions based on reality, even if it's European regulators. Btw, critics of Trump often make the same mistake, assuming that his administration is incapable of adjusting announced moves.

 

My bet on Toyota is going slightly below S&P500, but at least without AI exposure. Curiously, Toyota is criticized a lot for slow transition to electric cars, but the stock was never too cheap in recent years.

OK, so we agree the mandate is doesn’t make sense and isn’t possible.  So what’s our critique of the EU who has enacted this ludicrous regulation?  At what point do you, Loss Horizon, just think this is sheer incompetence and something needs done?

[NnnnotSoSmart]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

It's the usual generalizations about how things evolve in Europe from the other side of the Atlantic Pond. Some places, in the Northern parts of Europe, the transition to EVs is allready happening, taking place at full swing, and will even eventually a lot of places in Europe take care of it self over time, no matter what some dumb, deranged boneheads in Brussels may decide.

 

EV penetration, measured by market share, in EU :

 

 

Please note this chart is for EU, not Europe. Thus, Norway and UK are grey. It's common knowledge here, that Norway is 'Tesla Land #1' - 'Drill, baby drill' - make a lot of money on that - then go buy a Tesla! 

According to Gemini:

 

"The primary reason for the high penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in Denmark and Finland—as well as the broader Nordic region—is a combination of aggressive government tax incentives, high gasoline costs, and robust charging infrastructure.

 

While both countries share a commitment to carbon neutrality, their specific policy levers differ slightly:

 

1. Massive Tax Incentives (Denmark)

Denmark has historically high taxes on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, often exceeding 100% of the car's value. To promote EVs, the government implemented a registration tax phase-in.

 

The "Tax Gap": While an ICE car might be hit with a massive registration tax, EVs have enjoyed significant exemptions or heavily reduced rates. This makes the "sticker price" of a Tesla or a Polestar competitive with—or even cheaper than—a standard gas-powered sedan like a Volkswagen Golf or a Ford Focus.

 

Low Ownership Taxes: Beyond the initial purchase, annual ownership taxes are significantly lower for zero-emission vehicles.

 

2. High Cost of Fossil Fuels

Both Denmark and Finland have some of the highest gasoline and diesel prices in the world due to environmental taxes.

 

The Fuel Math: With electricity being relatively affordable (and increasingly sourced from domestic wind in Denmark and nuclear/hydro in Finland), the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) tips heavily in favor of EVs. Drivers save thousands of Euros annually on "fuel" alone.

 

3. Government Mandates and Infrastructure (Finland)

Finland has used a "carrot and stick" approach focusing on infrastructure and corporate fleets:

 

Public Charging Grants: The Finnish government provides subsidies for housing companies and workplaces to install charging stations. This solves the "apartment dweller" problem, where people without private garages are hesitant to buy an EV.

 

Benefit-in-Kind (BIK) Tax Breaks: A huge portion of new cars in Finland are company cars. The government slashed the taxable value of EV company car benefits, incentivizing thousands of professionals to choose electric over diesel.

 

4. Cultural Alignment and Green Energy

Both nations have "green" social contracts.

 

Denmark produces a massive surplus of wind energy. Driving an EV there is seen as a way to directly utilize the country's most abundant natural resource.

 

Finland has moved aggressively toward energy independence, and EVs reduce the national reliance on imported oil.

 

5. The "Nordic Effect" and Resale Value

 

Because the penetration is so high, the secondary market (used cars) for EVs is very healthy in these countries. Consumers are more confident buying an EV because they know there is a robust network of mechanics, spare parts, and a high resale value compared to a gas car, which is increasingly seen as an "obsolete" technology in those markets.