Is Europe becoming uninvestable?

[Charlie]

45 minutes ago, NnnnotSoSmart said:

"The primary reason for the high penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in Denmark and Finland—as well as the broader Nordic region—is a combination of aggressive government tax incentives, high gasoline costs, and robust charging infrastructure.

Gemini forgot another important reason:

The people in the nordic countries are much richer than the people in the southern countries.

An electric vehicle is approximately double the price of a normal car. 

I bought a great used car for 15.000 Euro. The EV would have cost above 40.000 Euro.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Scandinavia does not have heavy industry dependent on 100 years of ICE development like Germany and to lesser extent Italy and France.

 

Similarly, EV mandate would crush the state of Michigan in the U.S. due to automakers and extensive network of auto suppliers. This was why U.S. could not let GM fail in 2008.

 

European governments have provided little in subsidies and support to help their industry transition. Instead, they have applied onerous regulations (“green steel”), caused energy prices to soar, and encouraged labor issues.

 

Meanwhile, Xi and CCP have massively subsidized BYD, CATL, dozens and dozens of EV makers who are looking for a market to dump their products onto. The sticker prices of the cars will be very cheap because of CCP subsidies and them being made by coal powered factories and from coal intensive steel. Environmentalists from Europe will look the other way…

 

Ask yourself why, if Europe has these crazy environmentalists, they didn’t build a European CATL or European BYD/Tesla or European solar panel champion? Because these people don’t believe in capitalism or even GDP growth. They don’t care if European industry is devastated. That’s why the 2035 ban is more or less in place and a gift to China.

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

It is becoming clear to me that the less responsive the Brussels gang is to the concerns of European industry and its workers, the more likely AfD and National Rally come to power...then, there will be true upheaval to the Brussels class of elites who sit there and upend the European economy.

 

Merz is clearly trying to push back against the EU, but if he fails, he will be replaced with something that Brussels will hate even more. Italy already has Meloni. France will go National Rally. UK will also tend towards reform the more labour ignores the plight of its people. Every country will go more towards MAGA the more tone deaf its establishment remains. You are seeing it in the polls. Just how democracy works (though the EU is insulated from the effects of democracy).

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-news-merz-welcomes-eu-turn-on-gas-engine-ban/live-75173559

 

It's useful to see how the nutjobs operate:

 

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NGO Environmental Action Germany said the proposals, which still need approval from the EU parliament and member states, were "a capitulation to German combustion-engine companies that are ignorant of climate issues."

 

According to perplexity, this "Non-governmental" organization gets much of its funding from...government:

 

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Main funding streams

• Project grants (about 38% of income), roughly half from public sources (e.g. German federal ministries, EU, state governments) and half from private foundations and similar actors.

• Income from consumer protection work (around 30%), e.g. cease-and-desist enforcement related to incorrect product labelling and other market-surveillance activities.

• Donations and membership fees (about 17% from donations alone), coming from companies and private individuals, plus smaller contributions from sponsorships, court allocations, and patron schemes.

 

These are the same types of NGOs that advocated for German nuclear power shutdown and now they antagonize German industry. They are dependent on government funding...

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-15386153/Rolls-Royce-jet-engine-snub-Labour-Engineering-giant-threatens-1-6-trillion-project-US-Germany.html

 

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Rolls-Royce could build a new range of jet engines in Germany or the US instead of Britain, in what would be a major blow to Labour’s faltering growth hopes.

The FTSE 100 aerospace giant is being actively courted by politicians in Berlin and Washington over a programme that will create 40,000 jobs across the company and supply chain.

It comes as surging energy costs – blamed on Ed Miliband’s Net Zero drive – are making it harder to make money from manufacturing in Britain.

 

Apparently the UK is less investable for Rolls Royce than Germany or the U.S.

 

The Rolls Royce CEO has done miraculous things for the company in its turnaround. It's not surprising he is keeping his options open given the business climate in the UK

 

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For Rolls-Royce to launch such a major manufacturing business overseas would be seen as a body blow to Britain. 

It would echo other Labour setbacks, such as AstraZeneca scrapping a £450million vaccine plant on Merseyside.

Last month, the operator of the Channel Tunnel said it had cancelled future investments in the UK thanks to its soaring tax bill – further adding to fears that Keir Starmer’s government is driving business away.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Sweet]

5 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-15386153/Rolls-Royce-jet-engine-snub-Labour-Engineering-giant-threatens-1-6-trillion-project-US-Germany.html

 

 

Apparently the UK is less investable for Rolls Royce than Germany or the U.S.

 

The Rolls Royce CEO has done miraculous things for the company in its turnaround. It's not surprising he is keeping his options open given the business climate in the UK

 

 

 

Why would any serious company do business here.  Even the so-called ‘right wing’ conservative in name only party, slapped huge levies on oil companies because they when they started making money after Covid - when they lost money hand over fist.  Labour are doing it with banks.  
 

I want Rolls Royce to set up here in the UK, but if there are better opportunities in the US they should go there and do what’s best for the company.

[Loss Horizon]

6 hours ago, Sweet said:

OK, so we agree the mandate is doesn’t make sense and isn’t possible.  So what’s our critique of the EU who has enacted this ludicrous regulation?  At what point do you, Loss Horizon, just think this is sheer incompetence and something needs done?

 

Nothing needs to be done there. It will resolve itself out once people see real world data from industry and the markets.

 

I wouldn't call that 100% incompetence. When it was introduced, majority of people wanted to shift to electric cars in the far future of 2035, and Elon Musk demonstrated that it can be done at scale and with profit (don't pay attention to rotating CFOs).

 

Now as the date is coming soon and the change feels more difficult, people are responding and adjusting for the new reality. A lesbian strong leader is not necessary for that, the mainstream politicians and bureaucrats are changing the course of action as part of their job.

 

I have some critique for EU and Germany, but it doesn't match mainstream Twitter discourse. I think people on internet are aggravated about wrong things. After my Soviet/Russian background, I love Europe and the US with all my heart. They gave me opportunities which lifted me quite high in life.

[Dalal.Holdings]

8 minutes ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

Nothing needs to be done there. It will resolve itself out once people see real world data from industry and the markets.

 

I wouldn't call that 100% incompetence. When it was introduced, majority of people wanted to shift to electric cars in the far future of 2035, and Elon Musk demonstrated that it can be done at scale and with profit (don't pay attention to rotating CFOs).

 

Now as the date is coming soon and the change feels more difficult, people are responding and adjusting for the new reality. A lesbian strong leader is not necessary for that, the mainstream politicians and bureaucrats are changing the course of action as part of their job.

 

I have some critique for EU and Germany, but it doesn't match mainstream Twitter discourse. I think people on internet are aggravated about wrong things. After my Soviet/Russian background, I love Europe and the US with all my heart. They gave me opportunities which lifted me quite high in life.

That's where you're wrong. It's only if the People give pushback to politicians that change occurs. That's how democracy is supposed to work. A small group of protesters got Germany to shut down nuclear power by telling everyone that it would make their lives better (they were wrong), now the rest of the silent need to speak up.

 

The People need to rise up and serve as a check for those in charge who have been ignoring their interests. The elites in Brussels think they know better than the People which is where they think they get their power from to impose their ideology on the continent. They are wrong and that's why the discourse needs to be heated up until they cave.

 

We are already seeing Merz respond and give pushback. We are seeing Ursula side with right wing to pass an omnibus to reduce regulations. It's working and the pressure needs to be on. Otherwise, you will get AfD and the rest.

[Sweet]

37 minutes ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

Nothing needs to be done there. It will resolve itself out once people see real world data from industry and the markets.

 

I wouldn't call that 100% incompetence. When it was introduced, majority of people wanted to shift to electric cars in the far future of 2035, and Elon Musk demonstrated that it can be done at scale and with profit (don't pay attention to rotating CFOs).

 

Now as the date is coming soon and the change feels more difficult, people are responding and adjusting for the new reality. A lesbian strong leader is not necessary for that, the mainstream politicians and bureaucrats are changing the course of action as part of their job.

 

I have some critique for EU and Germany, but it doesn't match mainstream Twitter discourse. I think people on internet are aggravated about wrong things. After my Soviet/Russian background, I love Europe and the US with all my heart. They gave me opportunities which lifted me quite high in life.

So we have to see harm before it’s ok to roll back legislation?  Come on, the goal of legislators is to be thoughtful, it should not be to cause harm.

 

The regulation should be flipped, let the companies do what’s they want, but tax ICE cars or incentivise the electric car so you aren’t destroying an important industrial base.

[Sweet]

29 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

That's where you're wrong. It's only if the People give pushback to politicians that change occurs. That's how democracy is supposed to work. A small group of protesters got Germany to shut down nuclear power by telling everyone that it would make their lives better (they were wrong), now the rest of the silent need to speak up.

 

Sometime in the last 25 ish years, don’t know when exactly, the EU and European leaders just went nuts.  For a long time the EU actually worked, we were an economic power equivalent to the US, at one point larger on purchasing parity.  I don’t know what changed but something did, and something again needs to change to get the Europe going again.  We have  string of data points that shows failure in regulation and leadership and so many Europeans (for reasons I just don’t get) just shrug their shoulders at it all.

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Sweet

[Loss Horizon]

5 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

That's where you're wrong. It's only if the People give pushback to politicians that change occurs. That's how democracy is supposed to work. A small group of protesters got Germany to shut down nuclear power by telling everyone that it would make their lives better (they were wrong), now the rest of the silent need to speak up.

 

The People need to rise up and serve as a check for those in charge who have been ignoring their interests. The elites in Brussels think they know better than the People which is where they think they get their power from to impose their ideology on the continent. They are wrong and that's why the discourse needs to be heated up until they cave.

 

We are already seeing Merz respond and give pushback. We are seeing Ursula side with right wing to pass an omnibus to reduce regulations. It's working and the pressure needs to be on. Otherwise, you will get AfD and the rest.

 

Democracy works here to high extent, I think? Lobby from companies and worker unions. Protesters, polls, political organizations. Political parties and political discussion. Even elections with "green party" and their opponents. Merz doing his job. Who else needs to rise there? Everyone is participating and always was.

 

Democracy is only absent where strong leaders rule with iron fist. When politicians are weak, democracy is strong.

 

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A small group of protesters got Germany to shut down nuclear power by telling everyone

 

Sounds pretty democratic to me if somebody could have their voice heard? But I don't think that's what happened. I think majority of society wanted nuclear power down. I agree that it was a mistake.

[Loss Horizon]

5 hours ago, Sweet said:

So we have to see harm before it’s ok to roll back legislation?  Come on, the goal of legislators is to be thoughtful, it should not be to cause harm.

 

The regulation should be flipped, let the companies do what’s they want, but tax ICE cars or incentivise the electric car so you aren’t destroying an important industrial base.

 

Are there politicians who you mostly support? I'm sure they did that once in a while. Trump, for example: https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-cuts-tariffs-beef-coffee-other-foods-inflation-concerns-mount-2025-11-14/

[Sweet]

17 minutes ago, Loss Horizon said:

 

Are there politicians who you mostly support? I'm sure they did that once in a while. Trump, for example: https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-cuts-tariffs-beef-coffee-other-foods-inflation-concerns-mount-2025-11-14/

Of course there are politicians I mostly support.  I’m mostly supportive of the EU project, I’m not mostly supportive of the nitwits running it and their idiotic policies.

 

Edited December 17, 2025 by Sweet

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Loss Horizon said:

Democracy is only absent where strong leaders rule with iron fist. When politicians are weak, democracy is strong.

 

 

Now please explain to me the democratic accountability of Ursula and the rest of the Brussels crowd. That they are not directly elected means they can create rules that harm the populace...the feedback mechanism that ought to check these people does not exist or is severely impacted. Brussels gang is insulated from the people.

[Loss Horizon]

56 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Now please explain to me the democratic accountability of Ursula and the rest of the Brussels crowd. That they are not directly elected means they can create rules that harm the populace...the feedback mechanism that ought to check these people does not exist or is severely impacted. Brussels gang is insulated from the people.

 

Is this question about Presidential and Parliamentary Republic systems?

 

In the US, the President is elected directly. In many European countries the Parliament is elected directly, and then it appoints the head of state. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_republic)

 

European Union is built as a Parliamentary Republic. The President is elected by the European Parliament, members of which are directly elected by all citizens. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_European_Commission)

Edited December 18, 2025 by Loss Horizon

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Loss Horizon said:

European Union is built as a Parliamentary Republic. The President is elected by the European Parliament, members of which are directly elected by all citizens. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_European_Commission)

Members of the European commission are appointed, not elected. That is the key problem. It is the commission (unelected group) that initiates legislation and they do backroom deals/last minute changes to legislation that disproportionately impacts it. MEPs have very little impact overall.

 

Here is a former MEP breaking it down:

https://www.siliconcontinent.com/p/how-brussels-writes-so-many-laws

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The Commission initiates legislation, but it has no reason to be reticent. It cannot make policy by announcing new spending commitments and investments, as the budget is tiny, around one percent of GDP, and what little money it has is mostly earmarked for agriculture (one-third) and regional aid (one-third). In Brussels, policy equals legislation. Unlike national civil servants and politicians, civil servants and politicians who work in Brussels have one main path to build a career: passing legislation.

Legislation is valuable to the Commission, as new laws expand Commission competences, create precedent, employ more staff, and justify larger budgets. The Commission, which is indirectly elected and faces little pressure from voters, has no institutional interest in concluding that EU action is unnecessary, that existing national rules suffice, or that a country already has a great solution and others should simply learn from it.

The formal legislative process was designed to work through public disagreement, with each institution’s amendments debated and voted on in open session. The Commission proposes the text. Parliament debates and amends it in public. The Council reviews it and can force changes. If they disagree, the text bounces back and forth. If the deadlock persists, a joint committee attempts to force a compromise before a final vote. Each stage requires a full majority. Contentious laws took years.

This slow process changed in stages. The Amsterdam Treaty (1999) allowed Parliament and Council to adopt laws at the First Reading if an agreement was reached early. Initially, this was exceptional, but by the 2008 financial crisis, speed became a priority. The Barroso Commission argued that EU survival required rapid response, and it deemed sequential public readings too slow.

 

[Spekulatius]

14 hours ago, Sweet said:

So we have to see harm before it’s ok to roll back legislation?  Come on, the goal of legislators is to be thoughtful, it should not be to cause harm.

 

The regulation should be flipped, let the companies do what’s they want, but tax ICE cars or incentivise the electric car so you aren’t destroying an important industrial base.

You can argue that the goalpost shifted as needed on the iCE ban. Maybe the goal was unrealistic and it’s now clear, so the system adjusts, which is what it should do. 
I personally think electric cars are the future , but it’s a question of when, not if. Staying behind is not an option either.

Edited December 18, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-18/germany-launches-fund-to-draw-100-billion-in-private-capital

https://www.ft.com/content/52c783ca-fe28-4775-8220-986d1b268f60

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Friedrich Merz’s government is launching a “Germany Fund” to attract up to €130bn in private investments for higher-risk projects, a move designed to supercharge a massive public infrastructure and defence spending drive aimed at reviving the German economy.

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It will offer an array of investment vehicles and projects to channel private funds into sectors including tech and defence start-ups, energy infrastructure and critical minerals projects. An official announcement by the finance and the economy ministers is scheduled for Thursday. 

 

If Europe wants to be more investable, European capital will need to invest in Europe

 

 

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Stagnation and deindustrialisation are also fuelling support for the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which won more than a fifth of seats in parliament in elections earlier this year.

No Kidding

 

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“We will also have to make further structural reforms next year so that our economy becomes competitive again, because we’re still a long way off where we really need to be,” Merz told parliament on Wednesday.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/52655de0-4a3e-480e-8399-86ac86de9cea

 

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Carmakers sour on EU’s ‘disastrous’ petrol engine rule changes 

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Although it was initially welcomed by some carmakers, many companies said the offsets would be too challenging to bring in since the required use of green steel and “made in Europe” content in vehicles would be complex and expensive.

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“In times when European economic strength is crucial, this entire package from Brussels is disastrous,” said Hildegard Müller, president of the German car lobby VDA. “What appears to be greater openness is fraught with so many obstacles that it risks remaining ineffective in practice.” 

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Stellantis, the European group behind the Jeep, Fiat and Peugeot brands, said the proposals failed to address the challenges in the electric transition for light commercial vehicles and did not include enough flexibility to meet emissions targets in 2030. 

 

EU elites don't need to listen to the car industry. They just make the rules however they please. They are just asking for AfD to come to power.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-10/germany-s-chemical-plants-operate-at-lowest-level-in-20-years

 

German chemical capacity utilization lower than the GFC lows. I think if European regulators and politicians work harder, they can get it even lower…they should continue asking Xi for help

 

BASF might need to relocate more plants to China that are powered by nice, cheap coal electricity with cheap fossil fuel inputs—generating CO2 on the other side of the world, far away from the purview of the Greens.

 

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The main problem is oversupply stemming largely from China, coinciding with persistently weak demand from key buyers such as automakers. Order intakes are 20% below the pre-crisis level in January 2020, according to the industry group. Their survey shows that every second company faces a severe shortage of orders.

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Some 75% of the firms in the survey are implementing cost-cutting programs and one in five firms is shutting down or relocating.

Edited December 21, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

Best part of European chemical industry carnage is Einhorn's Sohn picks each of the past two years were European chemical companies (Solvay 2024 then Lanxess 2025). Guy is a good source of comedy.

 

Now, these could one day rocket if clueless European regulatooors move out of the way. The problem is when you invest in these things, you are betting on European officials doing the right thing. No wonder Warren didn't touch this continent. So many clueless nitwits in charge

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-22/eu-faces-renewed-us-ire-after-esg-cutbacks-fail-to-calm-tensions

 

This is quite illustrative of the absurdity of EU regulations:

 

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At issue is the so-called extraterritoriality of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. The EU just struck a deal to exempt more than 80% of companies once in scope. But it’s also agreed that the rules will continue to apply to large foreign firms doing business in the bloc.

 

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CSDDD, which puts companies at risk of significant financial penalties if they fail to monitor value chains for environmental and human rights violations, “is, by its nature, an extraterritorial instrument,” he said. So its “overall reach remains” intact. 

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Proponents of ESG warn that failure to require companies operating in the EU to comply with the bloc’s sustainability rules would have serious consequences, not least because investors wouldn’t know how to assess where to place their capital. 

 ESG proponents think investors actually care about ESG before deciding to invest in something  . If that were true, why is no one willing to invest in ESG Land (a.k.a. Europe)??? 

 

They are trying to force U.S. companies to disclose stuff on "human rights" and ESG on activities outside of Europe...meanwhile, everyone *knows* that Chinese firms doing business in Europe will skirt these rules and simply lie about their "ESG" and "human rights" activities outside of Europe. Yet again, idiots in Brussels keep giving China more gifts through sheer stupidity and naivety.

 

That 15% tariff deal might not last as it seems even Congress is ready to retaliate against more EU alphabet soup creations "CSDDD" and "CSRD". Only the geniuses in Brussels could dream up something so stupid.

 

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“This is extremely egregious, this attempt to overreach as they have,” Hagerty said at the Dec. 9 hearing, noting that both chambers of Congress have introduced legislation to block CSDDD. “Lawmakers remain very aggressively focused on maintaining United States sovereignty.”

 

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“The ability of Brussels to regulate a US company’s operations anywhere in the world remains, and this is completely unacceptable,” the spokesperson said. “The Trump administration has made clear this is a non-starter for trade talks and we look forward to a common-sense resolution in the near future.”

 

Edited December 23, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

Thierry no longer welcome in the U.S....LOOOOOOLLLL

 

[Spekulatius]

On 12/22/2025 at 2:57 PM, Dalal.Holdings said:

Best part of European chemical industry carnage is Einhorn's Sohn picks each of the past two years were European chemical companies (Solvay 2024 then Lanxess 2025). Guy is a good source of comedy.

 

Now, these could one day rocket if clueless European regulatooors move out of the way. The problem is when you invest in these things, you are betting on European officials doing the right thing. No wonder Warren didn't touch this continent. So many clueless nitwits in charge

Solvay worked very well though.

[Spekulatius]

Talking to folks at home, the biggest problem in Europe are the high taxes. Between income taxes, solidarity taxes, pension contribution and health care contribution (18.6% in Germany) and VAT (19%) as well as little things  here and there, the tax rate for an average earner is higher than 50%.

 

The social safety next cost is in between 20 and 30% of GDP for most states with some like Finland and  Germany and Austria exceeding 30%. The payout for the average earner is way worse than in the USA from what I can tell for the SSA/pension part, presumably because a lot of people are not contributing (large part of emigrants population but also many others groups ) The Demographic profiles of these countries  mean this is going to get worse.

 

Ireland spends ~13% of their GDP on social expenses which is the very low end. Thats one reason they are doing so well. For most other states, something has to give because otherwise the young workers are going to get buried in taxes.

 

I think all these states will need immigration but the right kind that contributes to society as well as a rolling reform of the social safety net. My guess is that  they also will incentivize older people to stay in the work force longer . There is no way the current trajectory is sustainable.