Background story on Zerohedge

[Spekulatius]

Fascinating background story on the “alternative news” website Zerohedge:

https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse

[JRM]

They were banned from Twitter in 2020 for propagating mis-information; the lab leak theory.

 

Now that has been shown to be the most likely source of the virus.

 

But yes, 90% of the content is bullshit.

 

Like anything, don't dismiss information out of hand because of the source but rather based on its validity.

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

I don't even know where to start. They post what suits them.  It comes off as just questioning the official narrative but as you said ZH just pushes a different narrative.

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I don't even know where to start. They post what suits them.  It comes off as just questioning the official narrative but as you said ZH just pushes a different narrative.

I followed ZH in past the GFC for a while. The news / blogs were mostly about financial topics back then and there were some interesting morsels of information here and there. however, even back then I found following this counterproductive after a while, since there were so many half truth and biased information there, that it was not worth following. The site morphed from being a dominantly financial newsite to a general and conspiracy site that became increasingly friendly towards Russia and hostile toward the US. If you read stuff like this, you just go down many rabbit holes to nowhere and at best waste your time and worst become a loony.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

This summarizes it nicely spek.  I have followed it since 06.  During the depths of the gfc, as I recall they were not telling people to invest.  I think near the absolute troughs they may have changed tune a bit but I didn't see any buy and hold calls. The sp500 is up like 5 fold since then. The opportunity cost was insane.

 

As we know , a broken clock is correct eventually...

Edited April 3, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Every once in a while they cover financial topics that are way more relevant than what the mainstream news covers. 

 

They were covering BTC as far back as 2011 before I can recall anyone mainstream watching it. 

 

They were the first that I saw to cover the JPMorgan whale in the CDS markets weeks before it blew a hole in their balance sheet back in 2012ish. 

 

They had some great coverage of repo and money markets breaking in 2018. Etc. 

 

There used to be more of good financial content in there, now there is less. It HAS been increasingly replaced with a hard right perspective on politics and etc. 

 

But, you can choose which articles you read and read it knowing it comes from a hard right perspective to make your own adjustments to the narrative. It's still a valuable source for financial reporting to me, but much much less so than it used to be. 

[crs223]

If Fed raises rates, ZH headline says “Fed Hell-Bent on Tanking Market”

 

If Fed lowers rates, ZH says “Fed Money Printing Will Destroy Society”

 

If Fed keeps rates same, ZH headline reads “Fed Refuses to Acknowledge Lurking Danger”

 

ZH is a waste of time.

[Gregmal]

I follow an outfit called the NIA, standing for National Inflation Association. They probably fall into a similar category and often are involved in stock promotions, but do often provide unique viewpoints and actually at times, actionable investment ideas. ZH though, IMO is too extreme and predictable. Nothing sells like greed and/or fear. Most choose to market the later because their target audience is so much more gullible. Pitching greed, folks know when theyre being greedy. Pitch fear? Those folks think theyre being prudent, conservative and responsible lol. But its the same shit.

 

In general, in todays day and age with the internet, you need to be mindful of folks who make their money via page views and subscriptions. Be weary of outfits that ALWAYS sing some variation fo the same tune. Thats why when Tepper or Loeb speaks, I pay close attention. When Mark Spitznagel has something to say, its like gee thanks for wasting my time. 

[lnofeisone]

21 minutes ago, crs223 said:

If Fed raises rates, ZH headline says “Fed Hell-Bent on Tanking Market”

 

If Fed lowers rates, ZH says “Fed Money Printing Will Destroy Society”

 

If Fed keeps rates same, ZH headline reads “Fed Refuses to Acknowledge Lurking Danger”

 

ZH is a waste of time.

I followed ZH during gfc. I found their info on someone blowing up somewhat accurate. All the political stuff, I just skipped. 

[dealraker]

Find a business/investing subgroup and sell some ads to make a profit.  The news hole is just that, make-it-up-as-you-go pain in the ass to get the $ flowing.  

[crs223]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Pitch fear? Those folks think theyre being prudent, conservative and responsible

 

Brilliant.  I was personally screwed by this… i became “prudent, conservative, and fearful” in 2007. In 2009 I thought i was the smartest man in the universe and remained fearful until i finally got back in during COVID.  Dutifully reading ZH every day.  What a waste.

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, crs223 said:

 

Brilliant.  I was personally screwed by this… i became “prudent, conservative, and fearful” in 2007. In 2009 I thought i was the smartest man in the universe and remained fearful until i finally got back in during COVID.  Dutifully reading ZH every day.  What a waste.

Yea I think often with stocks folks get intimidated, for a lot of reasons. But rule of thumb with stocks, people, life, etc, at least for me, is if you truly know and are comfortable with who and what you go to sleep with at night, you'll sleep well. But most dont apply that to their investments. 

 

Find any 5-10 year stretch in history and if you bought a solid company and stuck with it and just intelligently but lazily DCA's in over an extended stretch, you did ok. Bubbles dont mean theres no value and crashes tend to happen quickly. Stairs up, elevator down Ive always heard is the saying. Its why even with stuff I really like, I'll never go all in on the first purchase. 

[crs223]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

But rule of thumb with stocks, people, life, etc, at least for me, is if you truly know and are comfortable with

 

No, this doesn’t work.  When an intelligent person is getting started with investing reads ZH… that person “truly knows and is comfortable with” (your words) the system is corrupt and collapse is imminent.

 

[aws]

I thought their daily market summaries that came out right after the bell were a pretty decent read. The rest of the site is a big yikes though so eventually I stopped even checking that.

[Sweet]

It’s been considered a Russian disinformation org for a very long time, and I’ve ignored it for a very long time now. 

[Gregmal]

My old man was always into this kinda shit. The Gloom Boom Doom Report type stuff. ZH as well. I just remember asking him many years ago if he thought it odd that all these places that are selling you these "services" almost always seem to arrive at the same conclusion, almost irrespective of the situation. They always find a way to bridge whats happening back to the same old, same old. Imagine an investment or financial publication, with unique insight, that presented things like IDK, Tepper, or Eisman, or just in general, took a calm, measured approach LOL? That shit doesnt get page views or generation subscription sales though.

 

I bought some GLD today. Without getting too much into the reasons, whenever I think of gold, I wince, because its the perfect example of this sort of thinking. Talk to die hard gold bulls...theres never a point in time where they arent super convinced that everyone needs to hoard gold. 2005, 2009, 2013, 2016, 2020, 2023...what should we buy? Gold off course!

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Hell Greg, of all those here you likely could snare you some followers to the level of cult 101 and take them anywhere you wanted.  I'd be one.  You might, if you could toss out all your sense of decency, get yourself quite the revenue sideline.   LOL.

LOL my man I can’t even tell you how many times I’ve been told variations of that. Or gotten requests to really  create a fund or ETF.

I don’t know why, although I could gander somewhat, but I’ve never been all that ambitious about anything other than being able to live life on my own terms. At a certain level financially, that’s achievable. After that, the money loses its meaning, at least to me. Part of why I’ve never understood how people who already have so much, behave in certain ways, just to get more, of something they don’t need. Even worse, harming others with less than you, in order to do it. 
 

So I just enjoy interacting with likeminded people who also do it for love of the game rather than likes, clicks, or dollars. All of this stuff can be closely related, but hugely different, all at the same time.

I like investing but I also like hanging out with my daughter all day like I’m doing today, just playing together, or pulling my son from school Wednesday to go see the Super Mario movie…so I guess it’s just priorities. 

[Castanza]

Anyone pumping any viewpoint should be mostly ignored. I ignore the Zero Hedge nonsense the same way I ignore the perma-bull individuals who think the stock market always goes up because it always has. 

 

The world is changing, empires are changing and how money works is changing. We are no longer in the analog era and I think some of the "buy and hold because America will always exist." individuals ignore that aspect of it. I give pushback on things that affect me directly or have the possibility to affect me. But even then, there isn't really shit you can do about anything. Best to keep your ducks in a row and keep on trucking. 

 

In general though, these things change slowly (although with the digital world I think things move faster today). At the end of the day we are a blip on the radar of history. We get 70 years if we're lucky so I've slowly come to the conclusion that I'd rather spend my time with family and friends than worrying about the pending Armageddon. So for now, the buy and hold probably works.....until it doesn't.

 

Might as well just embrace the mess and find ways to live the removes the most amount of stress and anxiety as possible. To me (many on here will disagree) this is living a debt free life and learning as many skills as possible. Saving for retirement is important, but not the ONLY thing I think about. Frankly I have zero desire to be rich, own fancy cars, or a massive house. Most rich people I know are miserable and all they talk about is money. They complain about politics and life incessantly, can't identify with the common man and don't know how to have fun.

 

I'd be willing to bet that within 20 years there will be free education and free universal health care here in the States. Society (like most individuals) is Hell bent on subsidizing the most comfortable lifestyle possible while disregarding debt. The US is conforming to the norm seen globally. It is what it is....You just have to hope it doesn't blowup when you're still blipping on the radar. America is no longer a bastion of free thought and individual responsibility or pride. This can be confirmed with a quick trip to your local grocery store. If it isn't some completely useless Adderall pill junkie with blue hair, 20 tattoos piercings and a Che Guevara t-Shift on, it's some 350Lb Croc wearing sack of shit probably wearing some "Come and Take it" themed shirt when he couldn't run to the end of the aisle. LOL rant over.....time for a coffee with some whiskey. 

 

Life is absurd!

[Spekulatius]

I used to read ZH and John Mauldins newsletter starting in 2008 or so. They both sound clever, but if you go down these rabbit holes they are digging you end up wasting a lot of time and even worse, probably lose a lot of money just through opportunity cost if you actually start to believe the financial doomsday porn they are writing.

In my opinion, it's important to have some basic media hygiene in terms of what you are consuming. While it is probably a good idea to look at some alternative news sources from time to time, but if you start to dig into these fringe newsources there is a good chance you start to convert your thinking into conspiracy mush where Occam's razor has no chance to cut through any more.

[Castanza]

@Spekulatius I've found a mix of The Economist, Al Jazeera, The Christian Science Monitor, FT, and Reuters to be reasonable for primarily western news sources (outside of Al Jazeera). I completely ignore Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal, and NPR as to me they prove to be heavily biased. 

 

Can anyone recommend their favorite international news sources? I was looking at some from the Netherlands and Norway but most of them are not in English. 

[dealraker]

During the late 1990's I absolutely loved Bill Fleckenstein, the cynical manner in which he wrote was really entertaining.  Much of it about tech accounting and valuation was correct.  Then Fleck just kind of got stuck in that era, things moved on, and he became one of the most boring writers ever.

 

The cycles of life I guess.  

Edited April 3, 2023 by dealraker

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, Castanza said:

@Spekulatius I've found a mix of The Economist, Al Jazeera, The Christian Science Monitor, FT, and Reuters to be reasonable for primarily western news sources (outside of Al Jazeera). I completely ignore Washington Post, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal, and NPR as to me they prove to be heavily biased. 

 

Can anyone recommend their favorite international news sources? I was looking at some from the Netherlands and Norway but most of them are not in English. 

I use the WSJ to look for financial news but completely ignore the political part and the opinion pieces. Al Jazeera is quite good for foreign news that is typically ignored in the US. I snoop a bit around in German news sources too. The Christian science monitor has pretty interesting articles but I rarely check in there. I don't have access to the FT.

[dealraker]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I use the WSJ to look for financial news but completely ignore the political part and the opinion pieces. Al Jazeera is quite good for foreign news that is typically ignored in the US. I snoop a bit around in German news sources too. The Christian science monitor has pretty interesting articles but I rarely check in there. I don't have access to the FT.

Speck your posts are terrific so you must be well-read from somewhere.   Often Angela is sitting beside me these days as I type.  When I see her looking at me with the ole smush face side-eye I know I've gone off the rails with my posting stuff.  This is the woman who made me more money than my actions ever made - when she said (her tax awareness), "If you don't merge you haven't done anything worth doing."    

[crs223]

54 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I used to read ZH and John Mauldins newsletter starting in 2008 or so. They both sound clever, but if you go down these rabbit holes they are digging you end up wasting a lot of time and even worse, probably lose a lot of money just through opportunity cost if you actually start to believe the financial doomsday porn they are writing.

In my opinion, it's important to have some basic media hygiene in terms of what you are consuming. While it is probably a good idea to look at some alternative news sources from time to time, but if you start to dig into these fringe newsources there is a good chance you start to convert your thinking into conspiracy mush where Occam's razor has no chance to cut through any more.

 

@Spekulatius your entire post is brilliant, but the best two words are “sound clever”.

 

An inexperienced but moderately smart person will be drawn to a logically consistent “doom porn” article such as “US is printing; countries that print fail; therefore US will fail.”

 

There is an equally clever story that takes far more effort to digest: The Intelligent Investor by Graham.

 

Path of least resistance leads well meaning people to the story that is easy to digest.

 

For me the first dose of “antidote” came from Buffett’s article on gold.

 

Druckenmiller provides a good booster (me summarizing): “I’ve always been naturally bearish… but I can only make money being bullish.”

 

https://fortune.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-why-stocks-beat-gold-and-bonds/amp/

 

ZH is terrible for society — not because of Russia, or politics… but because it’s a doom narrative that “sounds clever”.  In a cult like way it teaches that all other media outlets are full of shit and only it can be trusted to deliver the truth.  I hope that our educational system can teach kids about bias in the media and understanding the agenda of a source.  will be important going forward….

[thowed]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

The Gloom Boom Doom Report type stuff.

I'd forgotten about this.  I came across this early on in my investment time - fortunately for me I didn't have enough money to go beyond the paywall, as in those days that sort of thing was right up my street.

 

Bears usually sound smarter, but I truly believe optimism is one of the greatest things a person can have. 

 

3 hours ago, Castanza said:

a mix of The Economist, Al Jazeera, The Christian Science Monitor, FT, and Reuters

I'd never heard of the Christian Science Monitor - thanks for the tip.  The name is rather off-putting, and misleading!