SIVB Bank Failure

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

This gal wasn’t the head of risk management. Looks like she was head of risk management for the UK sub which had little to do with the blowup. Head of risk management was Laura Izurieta, which came from Capital One and apparently had a carrier in banking.

[changegonnacome]

Good man Bill Ackman- planting the idea of bank runs in peoples heads is how you start a bank run! Beautiful - when folks compare Ackman somehow to Buffet, I laugh.....imagine Buffett out there on Twitter spaces, shooting from the hip and predicting catastrophe & calamity. He'd never dream of it, even it were true....lest he contribute to making it come to pass. Bill on the other hand....whom people listen to and follow......saying Monday is basically bank run starting gun. Its a wildly selfish way to get attention & feed his ego (at best), wildly cynical if has some position on that stands to benefit.

[Gamecock-YT]

I wonder if we see another couple of banks get taken down next week if companies start tapping their revolvers to insure they have ample liquidity. Would be the start of a vicious circle for the banking system.

[Simba]

Yup good ole Bill Ackman ... good ole the world is falling. 

Edited March 12, 2023 by Simba

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:

I wonder if we see another couple of banks get taken down next week if companies start tapping their revolvers to insure they have ample liquidity. Would be the start of a vicious circle for the banking system.

Why would companies tap their revolvers? They only do this if they themselves are in a liquidity crunch. The bigger risk is deposit runs, Imo. I think those are unlikely, but there are few banks with strained liquidity and narrow focus like PACW that may have to do something.

[Gamecock-YT]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Why would companies tap their revolvers? They only do this if they themselves are in a liquidity crunch. The bigger risk is deposit runs, Imo. I think those are unlikely, but there are few banks with strained liquidity and narrow focus like PACW that may have to do something.

 

Roku had 26% of their cash disappear overnight. You don't think if we get a few more bank failures this week that companies aren't going to want to get more liquid?

[John Hjorth]

Further entertainment, here by Nassim Taleb on Twitter [, whoose behavior on Twitter in general - paribus ceteris - I consider semi-jerky]:

 

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1634677096927641607?s=20

Edited March 12, 2023 by John Hjorth

[james22]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

This gal wasn’t the head of risk management. Looks like she was head of risk management for the UK sub which had little to do with the blowup. Head of risk management was Laura Izurieta, which came from Capital One and apparently had a carrier in banking.

 

Collapsed lender Silicon Valley Bank operated without a chief risk officer between April 2022 and January 2023 while the operation's United Kingdom-based CRO stands accused of prioritizing pro-diversity initiatives over her actual role.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11848705/Woke-head-risk-assessment-Silicon-Valley-Bank-accused-prioritizing-diversity-issues.html

 

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-london-weighs-rescue-bid-for-uk-arm-of-silicon-valley-bank-12830933

 

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by james22

[giulio]

https://www.ft.com/content/b556badb-8e98-42fa-b88e-6e7e0ca758b8?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content

 

They went for an extra [0.4 percentage points] of yield and blew up the bank,” said the person, whose fund held a bet against SVB. “It is really sad"

[clutch]

Just met someone at a Punta Cana resort while vacationing... I asked him why are you not golfing today and he said his son who came with him has a startup whose money is mostly with SVB so he is distressed... what are the chances.

[Gregmal]

57 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Further entertainment, here by Nassim Taleb on Twitter [, whoose behavior on Twitter in general - paribus ceteris - I consider semi-jerky]:

 

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1634677096927641607?s=20

Taleb is another one.

 

The common theme with most short sellers or folks like this is this personality defect where they need to feel superior. They’re all the same. They need to be the guy during the once to twice a decade declines who stands up and lectures and boasts about how much money they made and how everyone else should have seen it coming. IE roundabout “look at me, see how smart I am” boasting. All while others are down. However we saw too how these guys do the other 90% of the time..whether it Paulson or Einhorn or Chanos….no one envies their 3/5/10 year performance records. I mean look at Chanos for instance now…pathetic old man who spends his days tweeting, often in deliberately negative and deceptive ways, hoping to influence his holdings lol. It’s sad. 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Further entertainment, here by Nassim Taleb on Twitter [, whoose behavior on Twitter in general - paribus ceteris - I consider semi-jerky]:

 

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1634677096927641607?s=20

Not a semi-jerk.  A full blown dick head.

[Gregmal]

Did anyone read the latest Ackman stuff? Is he drunk? Paraphrased here but basically everyone is going to pull everything from non insured bank deposits and go to treasuries which is going to cause a global economic meltdown, which in turn will cause rates to decline, which will hamper the Feds ability to raise rates which is necessary to slow the economy and defeat inflation….lol wtf?

[John Hjorth]

38 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Not a semi-jerk.  A full blown dick head.

 It's just me being soo moderate and polite, @Sweet.

 

Btw, saw some place today, that Janet Yellen has commented, something is in the works [naturally], but she did not bring specifics forward.

 

I read earlier today on Wikipedia about what happened with and around Leman Brothers September '08  to refresh memory, especially about that Saturday meeting at the office of Timothy Geitner with all the bank CEOs of importance. It stroke me, that Jamie Dimon must be the only person still around at that level in US banking - hopefully his long memory is intact and matters.

Edited March 12, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Sweet]

26 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 It's just me being soo moderate and polite, @Sweet.

 

Btw, saw some place today, that Janet Yellen has commented, something is in the works [naturally], but she did not bring specifics forward.

 

I read earlier today on Wikipedia about what happened with and around Leman Brothers September '08  to refresh memory, especially about that Saturday meeting at the office of Timothy Geitner with all the bank CEOs of importance. It stroke me, that Jamie Dimon must be the only person still around at that level in US banking - hopefully his long memory is intact and matters.

Would do no harm for whatever plan there is in place to be communicated before Mondays open.

[mike_3772]

"that Jamie Dimon must be the only person still around at that level in US banking - hopefully his long memory is intact and matters."

 

They first begged him to buy Bear, Stearns.  Then they forced him to take TARP warrants he neither needed or wanted.  Then, forced him to settle claims from the Financial Crisis of around $22 billion dollars (during the Obama administration).  I wonder if he remembers any of that?

[gfp]

42 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Did anyone read the latest Ackman stuff? Is he drunk? Paraphrased here but basically everyone is going to pull everything from non insured bank deposits and go to treasuries which is going to cause a global economic meltdown, which in turn will cause rates to decline, which will hamper the Feds ability to raise rates which is necessary to slow the economy and defeat inflation….lol wtf?

I didn’t even know a tweet could be that long. He must pay for extra characters 

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, gfp said:

I didn’t even know a tweet could be that long. He must pay for extra characters 

[vinod1]

3 minutes ago, mike_3772 said:

"that Jamie Dimon must be the only person still around at that level in US banking - hopefully his long memory is intact and matters."

 

They first begged him to buy Bear, Stearns.  Then they forced him to take TARP warrants he neither needed or wanted.  Then, forced him to settle claims from the Financial Crisis of around $22 billion dollars (during the Obama administration).  I wonder if he remembers any of that?

 

Dimon wrote in one his annual letters that when the Fed asks him to buy out another financial entity he would say "No Thanks".

[Gregmal]

21 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Would do no harm for whatever plan there is in place to be communicated before Mondays open.

COVID is the only time they really just said ok let’s ensure we get it right, no bs. Pretty much every other instance they look to half ass a solution, or band aid stuff, or appease those who think they need to retain their “credibility” and generally speaking, it doesn’t work.
 

I’m still not quite sure what’s driving people other than attention, panic, or self interest, but this kind of event seems to be amplified by the fact it effects all the social media people and techies. Wonder how many of these smaller companies end up inside FANG. While I think the census is clearly a gross and bigly red Monday open, but when you look rationally here.. well capitalized FANG and big banks are probably beneficiaries of all this.

[Pelagic]

This is an interesting thread on the "social media risk" aspect that is somewhat unique to SIVB. Any other banks that have this kind of risk in their depositor base? SIVB seems like it was hyper concentrated not only geographically but also in terms of catering primarily to one industry, that also happens to itself be incredibly interconnected so news travels fast, a lot faster than it might in a regionally concentrated community bank.

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

True and correct, @vinod1,

 

Thank you for reminding us while we speculate away.

 

And add to the list provided by @mike_3772 the Obama administration prohibiting JPM from growing it's branch network and at the same gagging the bank from telling anyone about it.

[drzola]

Nice graph here.

 

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Did anyone read the latest Ackman stuff? Is he drunk? Paraphrased here but basically everyone is going to pull everything from non insured bank deposits and go to treasuries which is going to cause a global economic meltdown, which in turn will cause rates to decline, which will hamper the Feds ability to raise rates which is necessary to slow the economy and defeat inflation….lol wtf?

Yeah because inflation is just going to be gangbusters and the economy is going to grow during a global economic meltdown. Lmao  

 

What do you bet we find out he has a cds stake in a basket of banks. 

[Paarslaars]

Makes me want to buy PSH though, the macro plays are where he actually makes a difference, with of without fear mongering.