Best Investment Idea(s) for 2023

[changegonnacome]

On 2/4/2023 at 1:12 PM, changegonnacome said:

Best trade of 2023 is the - "you better believe exactly what Jerome Powell is saying trade". It's now my highest conviction idea.

 

There will be no cuts to Fed funds in Q4 2023 as is priced in

 

This played out as I expected...kind of closing the book on it now. as we head into year end...CPI report yesterday was indeed positive although I remain slightly skeptical of MoM perceived progress as employees head into another wage increase season......uptick in inflation early in 2024 in response seems like..... bu against that you've got leading economic indicators (temp staffing - HQI for example) showing some weakness.......didn't get as much torque as I would have liked into the idea but worked out well. Safe to say there won't be any cuts in 2023 as I had said....but I'm starting to think we could see some in 2024.

[Spekulatius]

Best trade was just to by the QQQ and chill. Ignore Powell, ignore doomsters, inflationista's or everyone else. Up ~45%.

[Gregmal]

I also don’t think we found a way at the time to express a belief that was somewhat arcane in terms of expressing it profitably. Best one IIRC was 5.50-6 Fed Funds futures which was a bust.

[Spooky]

I've never been wealthier, and I just sat on my ass most of this year, adding to some names here and there but letting my 97% long stock portfolio do its thing.

[LC]

On 1/3/2023 at 12:42 PM, Dean said:

Just throwing out the idea of buying a basket of some of the worst big-tech performers of 2022 including darlings AMZN, META, MSFT, GOOG, ADBE, NVDA, TSLA, SPOT, SHOP, etc. 

 

This is a 2023 thread but I can see a future where the 1-3 year returns are decent with this basket. Uneducated, simple and contrary - should be fine    

 

Looks like you won

[ValueArb]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Best trade was just to by the QQQ and chill. Ignore Powell, ignore doomsters, inflationista's or everyone else. Up ~45%.

 

And ARKK continues to trail it, by 10% this year. Dumb indexes FTW.

[ourkid8]

On 1/3/2023 at 9:29 PM, ourkid8 said:

1.  Fairfax - Viking described it perfectly, its the gift that keeps on giving - Thank you Prem!

2. Citi   - Approaching CET1 13% ratio where they can restart their share repurchase, Selling-off non core assets, investing in the future to remove structural costs and trading at 0.57x TBV 

3. BN - Selling below it's SOTP,  I love the Insurance and energy transition play, holds 75% of the asset manager while it has 100% of the current carry and 1/3 of the future carry on all new funds.  The question is, are we going to see a large share repurchase? My bet is Yes if the price trades where it is.   

4.  BABA  - I expect all Chinese stocks to rise with the re-opening play, additional government stimulus to kick start the economy along with no further government crackdown -I hope!        

I enjoy looking back at my past picks to see if my analysis/ thesis played out. Most of the time it’s a very humbling experience. 

 

- FFH up 48-50% - depends if you hold it in CAD or USD.  The thesis has played to perfection and it’s by far the largest position in my portfolio by multiples to the number 2 position. 
- Citi up 12% - Jane looks to be doing all the right moves by selling non core assets along with shutting non profitable businesses.  The buyback thesis has not started yet but that should kick in nicely in 2024 as management continues to simplify the business and hopefully with the freed up capital  repurchases shares! This is one of the smaller 2.5% positions in my portfolio. 
- BN up 24-27%, I love all the moves BF and team are making. I wish they repurchased more shares however the reinvestment opportunities are almost endless and that is the priority. The market is seeing this as a rate sensitive business and ignores the valuation of what they are buying. I had a great discussion with @petec on this topic and I feel the market was just being irrational with the valuation.  This is the second largest position in my portfolio. 
- baba is down 13%, what can I say besides I was wrong. Lesson learned.  I reduced my position and reinvested it into CP Rail which has been performing well.  Baba is a 3% position in my portfolio. 

Edited December 21, 2023 by ourkid8
Small edits

[Xerxes]

@ourkid8

 

thanks for resurrecting the thread. 
great closure and well done. 

[ourkid8]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

@ourkid8

 

thanks for resurrecting the thread. 
great closure and well done. 

Thanks, I appreciate. The only way to improve is to reflect on your past decisions and not make similar mistakes. 

Edited December 22, 2023 by ourkid8

[Red Lion]

On 1/1/2023 at 12:50 PM, StevieV said:

I like Fairfax's outperformance to continue for a bit.

 

I like JOE longer term, but I'm not sure it will be a great '23 calendar year performer.  (Of course, I'm not sure about any particular stock being a great calendar year performer).

 

I like Canadian E&P OBE as a bigger upside performer.  If oil prices cooperate, they should hit their long-term debt target sometime in '23.  Highly levered to the price of oil and WCS differentials and so highly dependent on pricing.  I think at current WTI ($80), they have significant upside from today's price.

 

I still like APO, but if I had to pick an alt today, I think I'd go with KKR.  I expect both to do well over the medium/longer term, but I'm not sure about '23.  KKR in particular I expect to bounce fast if the market rallies, but I have no idea when that will be.

Goes to show you didn’t need big tech to stomp the markets in 2023. 

[StevieV]

19 hours ago, RedLion said:

Goes to show you didn’t need big tech to stomp the markets in 2023. 

 

Thanks RL.  A few fortunate picks in 2023.  Thanks to the board for FFH and JOE.  Obviously a lot of great insight by Viking and Gregmal on those.

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, StevieV said:

 

Thanks RL.  A few fortunate picks in 2023.  Thanks to the board for FFH and JOE.  Obviously a lot of great insight by Viking and Gregmal on those.

No problemo. Glad to see so many people making money!
 

One of the elements of owning both that I became more and more fond of over the year was that these two investments in a way complement and counter balance each other in the portfolio. Either way rates go I win with these the only question is how turbo charged that gets. As long as there’s no major hurricanes it’s hard to lose with them!

[SharperDingaan]

Takeaways from this year is don't fall in love! and piss on public opinion!

Swing trades saved our ass in o/g, and contra bets continue to give - with still more to come later.

 

Opinion: Crapped on for defining 'cash' as T-Bill, UBS, and BTC!  .... UBS is up 70% YTD vs our CS purchase, BTC is up 150% YTD, and even our Canada's/Provincials are up. 'Cash' producing our biggest returns this year!

 

Swing Trades; OBE up 17% YTD  but Lenny, ... Lenny, ...... Lenny. Had you swing traded ... you're at a multiple of this. GXE down 40% YTD ... had you swing traded you would be near flat ... and should a take-out appear next year . PD and ESI down 25%+ YTD ... had you sold down when the opportunity presented, and redeployed the capital, ..... you would be near flat.

 

Experience and judgement resulted in lucky swing trades.

It also produced solid risk assessments.  

 

SD    

Edited December 23, 2023 by SharperDingaan

[james22]

On 1/6/2023 at 8:16 PM, james22 said:

I'm really guessing the next couple years looks something like the 2000-2002 Value/Sector rotation.

 

So SV, Energy, Financials, Industrials, and International rather than US LG/Tech.

 

Whoops.

 

(Did manage to finally pivot to a 20% position in Tech halfway thru the year.)

[Gregmal]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

UBS is up 70% YTD vs our CS purchase

Yea for some reason this one was just too immediately obvious and easy. I took some off at $26 and am debating holding the rest til the long term gains rate kicks in. Figured $30-40 per share inside 3 years was reasonable from $16-17 on day of the announced gift. Maybe too cautious on those projections 

[Paarslaars]

Yeah loved that one, I sold out at 23.5CHF as I had the 20CHF options that blew up to 35% of the portfolio. Made half of my returns this year solely on that trade.

 

Other than that I ended up doing amazingly well not picking any losers this year (other than Manu & CPNG calls). Used the pessisme of okt/nov to load up on a bunch of calls (JOE, BYON, SAVE, UMI) that all turned out well (2-3x).

 

Only big mistake I made was my premature ejaculation problem. Blew all my UBS winnings immediately beginning of September. If I had waited 2 months I could have bought everything much cheaper. Really need to take a page out of @Parsad's book to hold my cash a bit longer.

Edited December 23, 2023 by Paarslaars

[SharperDingaan]

On 12/23/2023 at 1:15 PM, Gregmal said:

Yea for some reason this one was just too immediately obvious and easy. I took some off at $26 and am debating holding the rest til the long term gains rate kicks in. Figured $30-40 per share inside 3 years was reasonable from $16-17 on day of the announced gift. Maybe too cautious on those projections 

 

It's at $42+ as soon as the CS retail banking is spun out as a cost saving measure. Simply 'cause selling the duplicate branches/staff saves on lease termination and severance costs, avoids disrupting the local employment and leasing markets, avoids cratering the (RE) shares owned by life insurance and pension funds, and makes even the regulators look 'sage'.

 

Think of it as a 3 year execution: Year 1 bonus for acquisition and stabilisation. Year 2 bonus for cost savings (primarily via a spin out). Year 3 bonus for higher earning/dividends on a smaller share count. 

 

If we're lucky, over 3 years we go from 18 to 50,  and a 3-yr CAGR of around 49%/yr before dividends; whereas if we started today and went from 30 to 50, our 2-yr CAGR would only be around 29%/yr before dividends.

 

That 20% CAGR difference is a measure of how much UBS has derisked over the last year. It is also evidence that if you are willing to give up liquidity on day 1, these things are nowhere near the risk that the market thinks they are; that very low entry price is primarily because most market participants cannot afford to give up liquidity, ...... hence, with high supply and no demand for the share (vs derivative), the price craters. Exploitable   

 

SD

Edited December 24, 2023 by SharperDingaan