Thread for contrarian ideas

[Gregmal]

Come on, let’s hear em. Most ridiculous things people are doing and thinking about doing. Always a fun exercise. 
 

A year ago I joked about $200 oil. Seems now more than an outside shot. 
 

Today, I’m not buying bonds but am getting tempted to hit up some dirty dirty junk. Maybe not some carvana but how about some of the energy companies? Transocean has some real wild ones currently hoisting bong yields. Berkshire Energy as well has duration. 
 

Where’s the biggest consensus opportunities? Meaning, where are there 10 kids all on the same side of the seesaw?

[thepupil]

I am thinking of buying a basket of KRC / VNO / PGRE / SLG 

[Parsad]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Come on, let’s hear em. Most ridiculous things people are doing and thinking about doing. Always a fun exercise. 
 

A year ago I joked about $200 oil. Seems now more than an outside shot. 
 

Today, I’m not buying bonds but am getting tempted to hit up some dirty dirty junk. Maybe not some carvana but how about some of the energy companies? Transocean has some real wild ones currently hoisting bong yields. Berkshire Energy as well has duration. 
 

Where’s the biggest consensus opportunities? Meaning, where are there 10 kids all on the same side of the seesaw?

 

We're not going to see $200 oil in the next 12 months.  At $150, the pain is going to start to really hit consumers and industry.

 

10 kids on the same side of the seesaw...maybe market sellers, crypto sellers, strength of USD, commodity investors.  Not that I'm for the current batch of crypto, but blockchain infrastructure companies are getting thrown out with the coins...so there may be some opportunity there.

 

Really most of the ridiculous stuff was happening late last year when I had moved to 50% cash...crypto, markets, real estate, spacs, etc.  It's Christmas again and I'm doing a ton of shopping!  Cheers!

[Gregmal]

11 minutes ago, thepupil said:

I am thinking of buying a basket of KRC / VNO / PGRE / SLG 

Might be early but I doubt we here one more contrarian than that. 

[crs223]

What my coworkers say: buy the dip, ticker XXX is 30% off, never seen a bear market last more than 6 months

 

What I wish they were saying: market is rigged, little guy can’t win

[Spekulatius]

The commodity supercycle is going to get cancelled by the next recession. Works every time.

[KPO]

Not exactly contrarian, but there are some interesting merger arb opportunities like TEN, and of course ATVI, with 30-35% annualized profit potential. Even Y is 2% off the deal price and should close in 4 months or so. Not exciting, but should perform ok on a relative basis with less risk of principal.  
 

I also have to wonder if BA @ $115 and WBD sub-$14 will look like bargains in retrospect when we look back on them 4-5 years from now. 

[Spekulatius]

23 minutes ago, KPO said:

Not exactly contrarian, but there are some interesting merger arb opportunities like TEN, and of course ATVI, with 30-35% annualized profit potential. Even Y is 2% off the deal price and should close in 4 months or so. Not exciting, but should perform ok on a relative basis with less risk of principal.  
 

I also have to wonder if BA @ $115 and WBD sub-$14 will look like bargains in retrospect when we look back on them 4-5 years from now. 

I think Airbus  (AIR.PA) is much better risk adjusted bet  than BA. Better blance sheet, much better management and better products.

 

WBD is too tough of a call to me with the knife fight in streaming. I agree on the merger arb opportunities.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Parsad]

24 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The commodity supercycle is going to get cancelled by the next recession. Works every time.

 

Yup, totally agree!  Cheers!

[adesigar]

A little PSH. 

[scorpioncapital]

6 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Yup, totally agree!  Cheers!

 

seems like everything is getting cancelled. cancel culture has come to stocks!

[MattR]

I am getting bullish precious metals. I believe that the market prices in a lot of rate hikes - but I think the fed won't do them and inflation is here to stay. They can't break the system, and a lot would break at 5% fed fund rate. 

[lnofeisone]

Metaverse will be a niche thing and not as big as FB thinks. While we are in digital world, 80% of "AI-centric" companies are trash (especially in the insurance/finance industry) and will be outcompeted by the incumbents. 

[mcliu]

Short Apple. COVID stimulus over. Innovation cycle slowing. Phone adoption peaking. Market still pricing in rapid growth. 

[backtothebeach]

Argentinian ADRs

 

https://topforeignstocks.com/foreign-adrs-list/the-full-list-of-argentina-adrs/

 

I have no special insight into any of these names, but most of them are down 75-95% from late 2017 when Argentina issued 100 year bonds. I think the banks by themselves are probably fine, but there is no telling what the government will do.

 

Lottery tickets. But you asked for contrarian ideas, so ...

 

 

 

[n.r98]

Herbalife?

 

Stock got killed on declining volumes v 2021 and guiding to a full year decline in volumes and revenue. But guiding adj EPS of 3.50-4? Their adjustments are not egregious so even taking low end of guidance is 6.5x P/E  or with 700m of guided EBITDA, and 4.5b of EV, 6.5x EBITDA - both measures at low end of historical range. Share cannibal, FCF generative and good level of insider buying last few months - seems like what matters is whether volume declines will stabilize and eventually return to growth - insiders seem to agree that headwinds are temporal.

Edited July 24, 2022 by n.r98

[backtothebeach]

BASF

 

Highly dependent on ever more expensive natural gas. Russia cutting off Nord Stream. All baked in?

 

Didn't Buffett buy some?

 

[willie2013]

Buying Ascend Wellness (AAWH)

[sleepydragon]

Chinese ADRs..