China

[Xerxes]

On 1/20/2023 at 7:31 PM, Spekulatius said:

of Chicago’s Luis Martinez shines a light on the extent to which autocratic governments might be juicing their estimates of gross domestic product, the commonly used measure of an economy’s size and might.

 

They learned this from Jack Welch

 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/rich-chinese-plan-to-leave-with-money-with-covid-zero-s-end?srnd=premium-europe

 

According to one private banker, wealthy individuals told him the cost of moving money offshore has risen to 12 cents on the dollar late last year from 1 cent in the years before the pandemic, as the government clamped down on money transfers. That isn’t stopping those who want to leave. Peter Luo, the principal consultant at Express Immigration, a New Zealand immigration advisory, said the requests from Chinese clients keep pouring in, with most coming from the business community. “The notable thing is that they are very urgent, with the request that applications are approved immediately if possible,” he said. 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-26/how-china-is-quietly-dominating-the-global-car-market?srnd=premium-europe

 

It’s just the beginning, according to Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer at the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The target is to sell 8 million passenger vehicles overseas by 2030—more than twice Japan’s current shipments, he says.

[Luke]

9 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/rich-chinese-plan-to-leave-with-money-with-covid-zero-s-end?srnd=premium-europe

 

According to one private banker, wealthy individuals told him the cost of moving money offshore has risen to 12 cents on the dollar late last year from 1 cent in the years before the pandemic, as the government clamped down on money transfers. That isn’t stopping those who want to leave. Peter Luo, the principal consultant at Express Immigration, a New Zealand immigration advisory, said the requests from Chinese clients keep pouring in, with most coming from the business community. “The notable thing is that they are very urgent, with the request that applications are approved immediately if possible,” he said. 

You know, although i hold a lot of Tencent/Prosus, i want to see the akward painful face of Mr. Xi Jin Ping when is own ,,people,, are leaving his ,,motherland,, because the political environment is so toxic. How Ironic, trying to bring people together while the result is the opposite. I wonder how delusional he really is.

[james22]

 

[dealraker]

I've thought that maybe I shouldn't post this, I'll be possibly considered off-my-rocker plum lunatic, but...

 

TO HELL WITH BITCOIN!  I've got something far more logical!    ???????????  Or not.

 

This week for the third time I bought $5k of something symboled CWEB.  LOL!  I can afford to lose this $15k but there again I don't think I will.

 

Hell, if you are going "China" then go with some ****ing GUSTO!  I'd watch CWEB during the China run-up years ago and decided if there was any plunge in the future I'd wait till some uptrend began and step into some CWEB.

 

I've bought three times...this will be one exciting ride.  

Edited January 27, 2023 by dealraker

[UK]

On 1/27/2023 at 2:24 PM, dealraker said:

I've thought that maybe I shouldn't post this, I'll be possibly considered off-my-rocker plum lunatic, but...

 

TO HELL WITH BITCOIN!  I've got something far more logical!    ???????????  Or not.

 

This week for the third time I bought $5k of something symboled CWEB.  LOL!  I can afford to lose this $15k but there again I don't think I will.

 

Hell, if you are going "China" then go with some ****ing GUSTO!  I'd watch CWEB during the China run-up years ago and decided if there was any plunge in the future I'd wait till some uptrend began and step into some CWEB.

 

I've bought three times...this will be one exciting ride.  

 

Interesing! But isnt this thing is full of cloud, saas and similar businesses:)? And isnt most of them (except for Alibaba, Tencent and maybe a few other) is very similar to ARKK type of holdings? 

[dealraker]

23 hours ago, UK said:

 

Interesing! But isnt this thing is full of cloud, saas and similar businesses:)? And isnt most of them (except for Alibaba, Tencent and maybe a few other) is very similar to ARKK type of holdings? 

Deleted my first reply, didn't like wording.

 

Yes UK, correct.  Also bought a tad of NOAH which I have followed for about 10 years.  I had owned some Fanhua, an insurance agency/broker, but long before Covid they had trouble sustaining a business model because each time they began thriving the gov't would literally step in an forbid such sales.  So for years FANH would have cash (and no debt) equal to the market cap and big growing earnings and sell at a single digit PE.  It worked out well as an investment but over time the obvious was just obvious - and then I simply got luck not owning it when Covid came.

 

So I'm just messing around trying to stay in the present (as my wife urges me to do instead of just hanging on the long term build in the past things).  Its just a tiny-tiny thing, but it keeps me alive and excited.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by dealraker

[dealraker]

On 1/29/2023 at 2:27 PM, dealraker said:

Deleted my first reply, didn't like wording.

 

Yes UK, correct.  Also bought a tad of NOAH which I have followed for about 10 years.  I had owned some Fanhua, an insurance agency/broker, but long before Covid they had trouble sustaining a business model because each time they began thriving the gov't would literally step in an forbid such sales.  So for years FANH would have cash (and no debt) equal to the market cap and big growing earnings and sell at a single digit PE.  It worked out well as an investment but over time the obvious was just obvious - and then I simply got luck not owning it when Covid came.

 

So I'm just messing around trying to stay in the present (as my wife urges me to do instead of just hanging on the long term build in the past things).  Its just a tiny-tiny thing, but it keeps me alive and excited.

 

 

Also have a very small investment in NIO, one I've had since the stock was a tad over $2 per share.  I don't much even think about it.   

[UK]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

Also have a very small investment in NIO, one I've had since the stock was a tad over $2 per share.  I don't much even think about it.   

 

Is very small something like 0.2 or 1-2 per cent? Sometimes I too make 1-2 per cent speculative or leveraged bets and also have a basket of very small, like 0.2 per cent positions, which for me is kind of version of wachlist of companies I just want to follow for some good or strange reasons:)

[dealraker]

Oh not even in the 0.2.  Some years ago I looked at CWEB, KWEB, BABA, BIDU (our club did well with BIDU but we sold it early), JD...all the typical ones but just sort of meeked away as is the norm.  But I thought NIO as by far the most rediculous of them all and one night with a couple glass of wine in me I made a limit order after Angela said "Boy you need to get some stimulation in you!"  LOL.

 

I bought $2500 or so of NIO.  Yea, I do know that it went to $60 or so and is back to $10-ish or whatnot.  So with CWEB, NOAH, and NIO I'm in the NM category.  NOAH is of course just like FANH in that the whims of authority restrictions are forevermore waiting to stamp out any success they deem either too much or hurtful to citizens...or just to be mean.  

 

 

 

 

[sleepydragon]

The balloon crisis: I bet this because whoever was supposed to be running these balloons are on vacation or miss coordinated due to the long spring festival break. Someone was on break. 

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

The balloon crisis: I bet this because whoever was supposed to be running these balloons are on vacation or miss coordinated due to the long spring festival break. Someone was on break. 

The ballon is just an incident, not a crisis.
I don’t think it’s an accident though. If it were an accident, China would have notified the US via intelligence channels and we would likely never heard about it. I think this balloon is literally a trial balloon that China sent to find out what they can get away with and what intelligence they can gather with them.

 

Ballons have a very small radar signature and are actually hard to detect (small radar signature). They can be used to listen to radio chatter or record longer term movement at a certain location better than satellites.

 

China wants to find out what they can do with them, if they get detected and if so what the US does once they are detected.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Spekulatius

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-aids-russias-war-in-ukraine-trade-data-shows-11675466360?mod=hp_lead_pos1

[Spekulatius]

Looks like the balloon was indeed a spy / surveillance balloon. The antennas arrays alone indicate so, since a weather balloon would likely have other sensors like pressure equipment, maybe infrared cameras, temperature sensors.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-balloon-carried-antennas-other-equipment-to-gather-intelligence-u-s-says-11675953033?mod=business_trending_now_article_pos1

[rogermunibond]

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf

[hillfronter83]

This guy is one of the most influential banker in China.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-renaissance-says-it-is-unable-contact-chairman-bao-fan-2023-02-17/

[sleepydragon]

3 hours ago, hillfronter83 said:

This guy is one of the most influential banker in China.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-renaissance-says-it-is-unable-contact-chairman-bao-fan-2023-02-17/

Imo, these sort of things happen a lot in China. If you are in a position of significance,or MD level working in a state companies, it happens. It seems scary to westerners.

 

[zippy1]

3 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

Imo, these sort of things happen a lot in China. If you are in a position of significance,or MD level working in a state companies, it happens. It seems scary to westerners.

 

 For many people what is scary (or surprising) is that Chinese do not think this is scary, IMHO.   Which shows a completely different "culture."

Edited February 18, 2023 by zippy1

[crs223]

23 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

 For many people what is scary (or surprising) is that Chinese do not think this is scary, IMHO.   Which shows a completely different "culture."

 

Chinese govt cuts out the middle man. In the US, they have to go thorough social media's "Health and Safety" teams.

[Parsad]

China has stunning lead in most fields of study in critical or emerging technology:

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-stunning-lead-over-us-052630482.html

 

Cheers!

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

China has stunning lead in most fields of study in critical or emerging technology:

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-stunning-lead-over-us-052630482.html

 

Cheers!

Well, they are funding science and we are funding welfare!  In addition, we select scientists based on diversity, commitment to racial quotas and such, and the Chinese foolishly do not!

Edited March 4, 2023 by Dinar

[no_free_lunch]

20 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Well, they are funding science and we are funding welfare!

In china, most of the senior government leaders have science or engineering backgrounds,  so I have read. In the US it's a bunch of lawyers, actors and less. 

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Dinar said:

Well, they are funding science and we are funding welfare!  In addition, we select scientists based on diversity, commitment to racial quotas and such, and the Chinese foolishly do not!

 

I imagine the U.S. reception of scientists, doctors, engineers and technology experts from every part of the world is what partly has lead to the exceptionality of the U.S. in the last 100 years...from Einstein and Oppenheimer to Elon Musk and Andy Grove.

 

https://startalkmedia.com/20-immigrants-refugee-scientists-who-made-america-greater-part-1/

 

The Chinese are simply spending more money on research and development.  Diversity and racial quotas have nothing to do with it.  Higher wages, more funding for research, less red tape for development, and easier immigration would probably continue to attract more doctors, engineers, scientists and other experts.  Cheers!

 

 

[Dinar]

5 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

I imagine the U.S. reception of scientists, doctors, engineers and technology experts from every part of the world is what partly has lead to the exceptionality of the U.S. in the last 100 years...from Einstein and Oppenheimer to Elon Musk and Andy Grove.

 

https://startalkmedia.com/20-immigrants-refugee-scientists-who-made-america-greater-part-1/

 

The Chinese are simply spending more money on research and development.  Diversity and racial quotas have nothing to do with it.  Higher wages, more funding for research, less red tape for development, and easier immigration would probably continue to attract more doctors, engineers, scientists and other experts.  Cheers!

 

 

https://mcusercontent.com/ea8e8120d9fd32d5e5e17bf67/files/afe24bc1-df56-67e8-6751-9af50a254189/4.American_universities_are_hiring_based_on_devotion_to_diversity.pdf