Russia-Ukrainian War

[james22]

2 hours ago, LC said:

Just wondering what parallels anyone sees between this war and America’s 20? Year war in the Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq).

 

Russia has one advantage during the shooting war: losses incurred are to his own rebellious minorities.

 

And three during after that:

 

1. an achievable goal (pacification vs winning over hearts and minds),

2. experienced secret police/tactics (vs American soldiers unprepared to play at tribal politics), and

3. the ability to forcibly relocate the rebellious to Siberia

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by james22

[Dinar]

18 minutes ago, Viking said:

How do you negotiate with someone who doesn’t want to negotiate? Just imagine if Churchill had decided the best course of action was to negotiate with Hitler (and sue for peace)? Yes, the war would have been over much earlier. And the world would look very different today, especially in Europe. Looking with hindsight, i think Churchill made the right decision. 

How do you know?  Seriously, you compare Hitler and Putin?  How many people Putin killed?  Tens of thousands?  Hitler - 100 million.  Do I like President Putin?  Hell no, and I had the same opinion nearly 25 years ago when he gained power, I thought that no normal/honourable person joins KGB voluntarily.  But to compare him to Hitler?  Again, I do not know what Putin truly wants and I do not know whether the Putin or the West tried to negotiate.   But to claim that Putin refuses to negotiate is absurd, have you talked to him and did he tell you that himself?

[Xerxes]

32 minutes ago, Viking said:

Ukraine is fighting being invaded by a foreign aggressor, Russia. The West is supporting the local population. The lesson from Afghanistan is the local population, if motivated and well armed, is eventually able to push the aggressor out. And that is what we are seeing play out in Ukraine (just much quicker than anyone thought).

Agreed. 

I would just caution that story has not ended. However I do hope that the lesson remains the same 12 months out. 
 

happy thanksgiving 

 

[Viking]

14 minutes ago, Dinar said:

How do you know?  Seriously, you compare Hitler and Putin?  How many people Putin killed?  Tens of thousands?  Hitler - 100 million.  Do I like President Putin?  Hell no, and I had the same opinion nearly 25 years ago when he gained power, I thought that no normal/honourable person joins KGB voluntarily.  But to compare him to Hitler?  Again, I do not know what Putin truly wants and I do not know whether the Putin or the West tried to negotiate.   But to claim that Putin refuses to negotiate is absurd, have you talked to him and did he tell you that himself?

The main point with my post was not try and compare and contrast Putin and Hitler as people, leaders and their impact on Europe and the world. Hard to do that in a few lines of text. Also, you are correct, i have no idea what Putin might want to do. 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Viking

[Xerxes]

11 minutes ago, Dinar said:

How do you know?  Seriously, you compare Hitler and Putin?  How many people Putin killed?  Tens of thousands?  Hitler - 100 million.  Do I like President Putin?  Hell no, and I had the same opinion nearly 25 years ago when he gained power, I thought that no normal/honourable person joins KGB voluntarily.  But to compare him to Hitler?  Again, I do not know what Putin truly wants and I do not know whether the Putin or the West tried to negotiate.   But to claim that Putin refuses to negotiate is absurd, have you talked to him and did he tell you that himself?

Viking

I agree with Dinar that we cannot compare Hitler with Putin. 
 

if you do so you are decreasing the damage that Hitler has done to the world at the expense of trying to score a point. 
 

they are not even in the same zip code

[StevieV]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

I agree, the top priority for the West should be to find a way for Putin to save face and end this war as soon as possible.

 

I'm not sure what there is to disagree with in this statement.  War is bad and we should all want it to end.

 

1 hour ago, Viking said:

How do you negotiate with someone who doesn’t want to negotiate? Just imagine if Churchill had decided the best course of action was to negotiate with Hitler (and sue for peace)? Yes, the war would have been over much earlier. And the world would look very different today, especially in Europe. Looking with hindsight, i think Churchill made the right decision. 

 

I'm not sure you've thought this through Viking. I think the WWII/Hitler comparisons to this conflict are poor for a ton of reasons.  Regardless, uh, that opposition was a world war, and you can't be advocating world war, but this time with nukes.

Edited October 9, 2022 by StevieV

[scorpioncapital]

1 hour ago, Viking said:

Ukraine is fighting being invaded by a foreign aggressor, Russia. The West is supporting the local population. The lesson from Afghanistan is the local population, if motivated and well armed, is eventually able to push the aggressor out. And that is what we are seeing play out in Ukraine (just much quicker than anyone thought).

 

Didn't work for the aggressor US which invaded Iraq illegaly. UN called it a violation of international law too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimes

Don't think US has the moral high ground to tell Russia is 'wrong' or anything.

 

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

Didn't work for the aggressor US which invaded Iraq illegaly. UN called it a violation of international law too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_war_crimes

Don't think US has the moral high ground to tell Russia is 'wrong' or anything.

 

I would not conflate what private citizens & posters here might think with what U.S. as a government might think.

 

private citizens I imagine are more interested in triumph of good vs evil. So one needs to forgive them when they are more focused on certain events than others that does not fit that fairy tale black and white narrative.  

Now while the US government has no business taking the moral high ground (given its exotic history and foreign adventures), it has every bit of business in securing its geopolitical interest and its allies. One does not get to be a superpower by not securing its interest or doing a “random walk”.
 

The danger though is that the US Government has so deeply aligned itself with the Ukrainian cause that it may be hard to do a “pivot” if it gets too far. And that is if we even know what is too far. 
 

It has been said that the US Central Bank is going to hike interest rate until something “breaks”. In the arena of geopolitics, can the U.S. Government keep pushing Ukraine until something “breaks”. With the former the Central Bank can do a u-turn and start buying bonds ala Bank of England. Can the U.S. Government perform a geopolitical u-turn. 
 

It is sad and unfair to the Ukrainian to even be talking about this. As the Ukrainian have every right to keep on fighting. But there is a bigger picture. 
 

For instance I recall in 1985-86 (whenever that was) the U.S. Government was only too happy to supply Iraq with satellite imagery of Iranian troop movements to help Saddam with his chemical attacks. I suppose enabling the use of WMD by Saddam served a greater purpose !

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/26/exclusive-cia-files-prove-america-helped-saddam-as-he-gassed-iran/

 

Edited October 9, 2022 by Xerxes

[Viking]

3 hours ago, StevieV said:

 

I'm not sure what there is to disagree with in this statement.  War is bad and we should all want it to end.

 

 

I'm not sure you've thought this through Viking. I think the WWII/Hitler comparisons to this conflict are poor for a ton of reasons.  Regardless, uh, that opposition was a world war, and you can't be advocating world war, but this time with nukes.

i agree 100% with your statement: “War is bad and we should all want it to end.”

 

I agree, my mention of Hitler in a previous post was not well done. To be more clear, what i tried to get across is some people are not interested in negotiating. That is my read of Putin. And to try and get a deal at all cost with someone like that will likely not end well. Yes, just my opinion as Putin has not divulged to me his thoughts on the matter  My analogy to what was tried, and not tried, during WW2 was a bad example.

[changegonnacome]

5 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

UN called it a violation of international law too

 

International law.....when I see it written down it makes me laugh every-time....in the international system there is no law, the UN is nothing but a talking shop.......and the US has shown time and again a complete disregard for what one might call international law, cause in fact it just doesn't exist in any meaningful way......as Mearshimar says the international system is anarchic.........put simply in the international system when you call 911....nobody answers......the Ukraine situation is unique in that the US had become entrenched in first a kind of proxy 'mini-cold war' in Ukraine against Russia in 2010's (2014 Coup/regime change, Biden/Burizma, US presidents telling Ukraine president who to investigate) which meant when the tanks rolled in 2022 it did answer Ukraine's 911 call and rallied the West to help Ukraine fight Russia.......in other instances in places like Syria where the US had shown little strategic interest in 'containing' Russia the 911 calls went unanswered in the main including chemicals attacks etc.

[Gregmal]

Every time we have a Democrat in office this shit occurs. They can’t help but grandstand and parade around in glee, provoking Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China while bizarrely having a soft spot for the lemmings of the Middle East. Claiming it’s the good vs evil war when in reality they are endangering all of us and making things more expensive.

[Xerxes]

Be serious Greg, This is not a republican vs Democrat debate. Getting entangled in foreign adventures has been a way of escape for both from the gridlock in their domestic arena. 

[Xerxes]

[UK]

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022/10/06/ukraines-military-success-is-reshaping-russia-as-well-as-the-war

 

But a businessman describes a growing sense of his vulnerability by quoting from “The Jungle Book”, a classic British children’s novel that is apparently a favourite of Mr Putin: “When a leader of the Pack has missed his kill, he is called the Dead Wolf as long as he lives, which is not long.” Even if that proves wishful thinking, no one would have said it a few months ago.

[mcliu]

This Hitler analogy is absurd.

 

Putin's wars:

Chechnya 1990s to prevent Chechen independence

Georgia 2000s to prevent Georgia from joining NATO

Ukraine 2020 to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO

 

The fact is the US has invaded many more countries over this period and killed far more civilians.

[Spekulatius]

If you truly believe that Putin would unleash a nuclear holocaust when his special operation turns out to be a total failure, then Putin would be in the same zip code than Hitler.

 

Can’t have it both ways - believe that Putin isn’t that bad and then believe that he unleashes nuclear holocaust, when he doesn’t get what he wants.

 

Just remember, he isn’t really cornered. He can take his army (or what’s left of it ) and move it back to Russian borders. He does have a choice. Nobody has attacked Russia territory.

[SharperDingaan]

Most would expect that the Russia/Ukraine special operation is going to end up a draw. Ukraine part of NATO, all annexed Ukrainian lands back in Ukrainian control, a new iron curtain on the border, and an agreement on both sides to withdraw short-term nukes from the frontier. No incursions into Russia, and  no prosecution for war crimes. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63189627

 

The flip side is that on cessation of hostilities, large parts of Ukraine will very much resemble large parts of Germany after the bombing of WWII. Should reinvestment and rebuilding with state-of-the-art infrastructure, do much the same as it did for Germany; Ukraine becomes a future dominant regional economic power in the east. Level of corruption not much different to what it was in Germany at the time.

 

The mystery is the path to peace, and the path to regime change in Russia itself.

Lots of volatility, but the end point would seem to be pretty much baked in.

 

SD

Edited October 9, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Dinar]

25 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Most would expect that the Russia/Ukraine special operation is going to end up a draw. Ukraine part of NATO, all annexed Ukrainian lands back in Ukrainian control, a new iron curtain on the border, and an agreement on both sides to withdraw short-term nukes from the frontier. No incursions into Russia, and  no prosecution for war crimes. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63189627

 

The flip side is that on cessation of hostilities, large parts of Ukraine will very much resemble large parts of Germany after the bombing of WWII. Should reinvestment and rebuilding with state-of-the-art infrastructure, do much the same as it did for Germany; Ukraine becomes a future dominant regional economic power in the east. Level of corruption not much different to what it was in Germany at the time.

 

The mystery is the path to peace, and the path to regime change in Russia itself.

Lots of volatility, but the end point would seem to be pretty baked in.

 

SD

With all due respect, I disagree in one very important aspect.  Germany was and is a fundamentally honest society that abhorred corruption.  Ukraine (and the rest of the former USSR and Russian empire before) has had a culture of corruption for centuries.  

[Xerxes]

36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

If you truly believe that Putin would unleash a nuclear holocaust when his special operation turns out to be a total failure, then Putin would be in the same zip code than Hitler.

 

Can’t have it both ways - believe that Putin isn’t that bad and then believe that he unleashes nuclear holocaust, when he doesn’t get what he wants.

 

Just remember, he isn’t really cornered. He can take his army (or what’s left of it ) and move it back to Russian borders. He does have a choice. Nobody has attacked Russia territory.

admitingly  it can go sideways and the scale of destruction would be many times that of WW2. You are not wrong !
 

but was that his original intent ? Or was it by virtue of being cornered. (I understand that he actually has a choice - but in reality he probably doesn’t, not everyone is Gandhi)
 

Don’t forget that most of us in the West would gladly sponsor unleashing nuclear holocaust on an enemy city if we feel our “military’ honour” has been stained. I am referring to the survey done where a good % folks in the US would want to nuke an Iranian city of several million people, if a U.S. aircraft carrier has been sunk in the Persian Gulf. When I posted here I barely got a reaction. The only person (don’t remember who) on this board who really answered tried to make the case that nuking could be somewhat ok depending on the circumstances and rules of engagement. It was mostly silence from everybody else. I was shocked !!

[Xerxes]

50 minutes ago, mcliu said:

This Hitler analogy is absurd.

 

Putin's wars:

Chechnya 1990s to prevent Chechen independence

Georgia 2000s to prevent Georgia from joining NATO

Ukraine 2020 to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO

 

The fact is the US has invaded many more countries over this period and killed far more civilians.

To be fair, U.S. has also for decades safeguarded (alongside its self interest) the institutions of democracies that we all enjoy today which allow us to opine more or less freely. 

[SharperDingaan]

43 minutes ago, Dinar said:

With all due respect, I disagree in one very important aspect.  Germany was and is a fundamentally honest society that abhorred corruption.  Ukraine (and the rest of the former USSR and Russian empire before) has had a culture of corruption for centuries.  

 

Agreed, but right after WWII that wasn't the case; the black market thrived, and bribing to obtain all kinds of industrial 'favors' was a very common practice. People had to live, there was little infrastructure left, and they did what they had to do. 

 

Per the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) Germany (80) is less corrupt than Canada (74), and less corrupt than the Ukraine (32). While  corruption is indeed the regional norm around the Ukraine, it is not the case in Estonia (74) where blockchain is in wide use.

 

Most would expect that the financing to rebuild Ukraine would be primarily 'western', distributed using blockchain, and that corruption would average out at around 53 [(74+32)/2]; or about as corrupt as a Cypress (53) or a Saudi Arabia (53). Not great, but at least tolerable.  https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021

 

Cypress has long been a Russian money-laundering hub, and Saudi Arabia has long been the source of a good chunk of western oil and gas. Corrupt, but not corrupt enough to avoid doing business with.

 

SD

[Spekulatius]

Blockchain does not solve real world trust problems. You still need to trust that the real world reflects what happens in the blockchain.

 

I can sell you a Ferrari on the blockchain and when you drive to pick it up, you find my 10 year old Hyundai beater.

 

I guess that’s what the crypto brothers calls an NFT.

 

FWIW, Germany after WW2 was a barter economy and with many people  scraping by, it was certainly more corrupt than it was later. However, I don’t  think Germany as a society was corrupt even back then.

Edited October 9, 2022 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Just remember, he isn’t really cornered. He can take his army (or what’s left of it ) and move it back to Russian borders. He does have a choice. Nobody has attacked Russia territory.

 

Never popular to take the other side of good guy/bad guy media narratives on the internet but I'll try my best. To be clear I dont think there are any good guys or bad guys in international relations..not us, not them. I think there are only shades of grey and maybe lesser versions of bad guys at the margins. Nation states are at the end of the day if you were to give them a clinical psychological diagnosis - narcissistic sociopaths.

 

You said he's not really cornered.......but what if this war, as many have made the case for & I subscribe too, is an expression of Putin/Russia's sense that its very long term sovereignty & survival is at stake as NATO each year expands further East to his doorstep (for a 'defensive' organization, it sure starts to look offensive if you put on Russian/Putin military glasses) he is cornered and getting more cornered by the day.

 

Very hard for people to think of 'their' side as an existential threat to another.......but regime/state existential thinking is rooted in paranoia, as it should be....we are talking about existence itself here which nation states are mainly concerned with perpetuating......when you see a scorpion in your bed, do you wait to think about its intentions?.....the only rational course of action is to assume it is an existential threat and jump out the window and destroy that scorpion if you can. Some people seem to think the use of nuclear weapons by him is impossible........I wish I had their confidence. This war is an expression of Russia's right to exist, its right to 'feel' safe & respected.....to take even the hint of existential threat thinking OFF the table.......put simply its right not to have a scorpion in its bed. There is no higher calling for a nation State with a nuclear arsenal. 

 

He was feeling cornered before Feb 2022, thats what precipitated the invasion. I can assure you he feels more cornered now & cornered nuclear rats are net-net & in aggregate not good for everybody. Sure he made it worse for himself but it doesn't change the math here. The answer is IMO to respect Russia's feelings of existential threat and back off. It is not the USSR but it is a great power by virtue of its nuclear arsenal & one can argue its energy reserves. Ukraine's sovereignty should of course be respected too but it should also get the memo that Ukraine's role is to be prosperous/pragmatic democracy that strives to have good relations with BOTH the East and the West. 

 

See you need to ask what started this whole Ukraine thing (and the Georgia invasion in 2008, just after the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit when Georgia/Ukraine were said to be on a pathway to joining NATO) in the first place......and it was Putin feeling CORNERED by the USA (some use the word NATO, I can assure Putin think of it as just the USA).........in the same way the USA might feel cornered by say China if President Xi supported/aided and abetted a coup/regime change in Mexico in 2014 and had subsequently placed his own son on the board of Mexico's largest gas company.....and calls had leaked of President Xi instructing the Mexican President to do X,Y,Z or else he wouldn't get financial/military aid. While China also was sending increasingly offensive weapons in the late 2010's/early 2020's to Mexico to support some violent skirmishes Mexico was having with the USA on its Southern border.

 

The Monroe doctrine simply wouldn't allow what I laid out to occur.....Mexico would be invaded and become the official/unofficial 51st state. In existential threats there is no response too extreme, its god damn survival stuff.....its why people should alarmed about the path we are on.....a cornered rat with nuclear weapons & existential paranoia has the power to turn us all into cornered rats with thoughts of our own survival.

 

I get tired of good guy and bad guy narratives.....there are rarely any truly good guys in international affairs....Hitler the notable exception but lets safe the Hitler comparisons for when they are warranted & lets hope they never are again.........radical pragmatism should be what we all encourage in our politicians.....if Fox news and CNN ran international affairs we'd already be on World War 50 by now.

Edited October 9, 2022 by changegonnacome

[SharperDingaan]

"Blockchain does not solve real world trust problems. You still need to trust that the real world reflects what happens in the blockchain." 

 

Nah. Blockchain reduces corruption by making it harder to steal the money without trace; can't get off the off-ramp without leaving a trace to either your bank account, or the ATM that you used. And there is no point to substituting that old beater, if you cant get the money - trace free 

 

Of course there are ways around CBDC/blockchain, but it requires more sophistication, and ability to pledge security. Simply remove 30% of the 'little fish', and the level of corruption automatically declines.   

 

SD

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Agreed, but right after WWII that wasn't the case; the black market thrived, and bribing to obtain all kinds of industrial 'favors' was a very common practice. People had to live, there was little infrastructure left, and they did what they had to do. 

 

Per the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) Germany (80) is less corrupt than Canada (74), and less corrupt than the Ukraine (32). While  corruption is indeed the regional norm around the Ukraine, it is not the case in Estonia (74) where blockchain is in wide use.

 

Most would expect that the financing to rebuild Ukraine would be primarily 'western', distributed using blockchain, and that corruption would average out at around 53 [(74+32)/2]; or about as corrupt as a Cypress (53) or a Saudi Arabia (53). Not great, but at least tolerable.  https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021

 

Cypress has long been a Russian money-laundering hub, and Saudi Arabia has long been the source of a good chunk of western oil and gas. Corrupt, but not corrupt enough to avoid doing business with.

 

SD

SD - Estonia is essentially German, or was.  Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were always a breed apart in the USSR.  These were German provinces that became part of Russian empire for 170-190 years, and then independent again in 1917.  Finland is the same story (except it avoided the Soviet yoke from 1938-1990).   If I were to invest in Ukraine, I would consider it charity and assume that the money would be gone.  It is the same approach when I lend to people - I assume that I will never see the money again.  (I lent money twice in my life, in both case I did not expect to be repaid when I was asked for a loan, and both times was pleasantly surprised.)