Russia-Ukrainian War

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Dinar said:

u can simply flare gas, which is what Putin will do rather than shut down wells.

 

Got ya - yeah he sure made a big song and dance about this at Davos......whats his game.....just desperate to be 'in the room' with the powerful?

[Castanza]

16 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Got ya - yeah he sure made a big song and dance about this at Davos......whats his game.....just desperate to be 'in the room' with the powerful?

You can also drill holes or find natural cavities and pump it in for storage. This is done pretty frequently here in the US. 

[aws]

Whether they cap wells, flare, or fill up storage, it still amounts to zero revenue instead of the $100mm+ per day they were receiving before. They have no way of selling this gas to Asia like they can with oil. It's a serious hit to their revenue, and it forces Europe to do what they should have done anyway and get off their dependence on Russian energy.

 

I think it's a bluff by Putin, but unfortunately Germany is folding anyway. In the face of this pinching of energy supplies they decided to self-inflict some more pain by closing perfectly good nuclear power plants by the end of the year, and have convinced Canada to return the natural gas turbine to Gazprom.

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

Is there not some risk to Russia in cutting off the natural gas?   I was under the impression that they don't have sufficient pipeline capacity to sell all that nat gas to non Europe buyers.   As a result, it seems this will hit RU quite hard economically and while they are in the middle of a war.  I guess they could just take the pain but I think it's a bluff.  Certainly if they go through it, Europe will take aggressive actions to counter it and I don't know if Russia will ever sell to them again.  On a personal note, I hope it happens, let's get this thing going.

 

There was a report yesterday that crypto transactions were outlawed recently in Russia.  The far right idiots hold Russia up as this paragon of fiscal prudence as there is some sort of gold backing to the currency.  Would such a country really outlaw crypto?  To me it points to a system in financial distress.  Again, it makes me wonder if they have the ability to stop selling to Europe.

I don’t think Russia is bluffing. I put a high likely hood on them turning of the NG to Europe. Once they have done so and Europe is past the winter, they have played their card and I think its unlikely that Russian gas will flow to Europe again. Russian Ng in that scenario will remain stranded for years until they can build infrastructure to move it elsewhere.

Europe will go into a recession and I expect some of the basic industries like Steel and Chemical to be hit hard. The rest has to replace the gas with oil in the short term.

 

The power grid will be fine. I have heard expectations of a recession (-1.5%  real GDP) but might look worse when compressed in a small time frame.

 

Edit - found and article that looks at the economic impact of NG from Russia going to zero. Italy, Slovakia, Hungria  will be hard hit:

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article239995319/Gas-Lieferstopp-Diese-Laender-trifft-er-am-haertesten.html

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Once they have done so and Europe is past the winter, they have played their card and I think its unlikely that Russian gas will flow to Europe again.

 

Which is driving my feeling the point of maximum opportunity for Russia to extract a good deal/peeling off of sanctions from the international community is early/mid this winter (before 2023).......at some point soon Europe will squeal in pain and will be ripe to advocate for a settlement between Putin & Zelensky.....i expect diplomacy to ramp up very soon.

[CGJB]

23 hours ago, Dinar said:

You can simply flare gas, which is what Putin will do rather than shut down wells.  I am 99.99% confident that Soros is aware of this, the fact that he omits this fact once again shows that he is, while a great investor, not a person to be trusted in my opinion.

I agree that Soros ranks as a great investor, one of the greatest of all time. But I don't think he is a force for good in the world. Putin, for whatever faults he may have, kicked Soros out of Russia some years ago. And for that he should be saluted and emulated by other world leaders, imho.

[John Hjorth]

For a while, none of the posts in this topic has had anything to do with the topic title in this topic.

 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Which is driving my feeling the point of maximum opportunity for Russia to extract a good deal/peeling off of sanctions from the international community is early/mid this winter (before 2023).......at some point soon Europe will squeal in pain and will be ripe to advocate for a settlement between Putin & Zelensky.....i expect diplomacy to ramp up very soon.

I don’t think that war is over this winter. The sanctions for the most part will stay anyways. Europe does not matter in terms of the outcome all that much, its more the US is supplying the weapons. The EU helps quite a bit to keep the Ukraine’s afloat though with monetary aid.

 

I don't understand the animosity toward Soros.

[Xerxes]

17 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

For a while, none of the posts in this topic has had anything to do with the topic title in this topic.

 

in fact, this thread doesn’t even belong in this forum. This should go to the political section.  

[mcliu]

Good topic to see psychology at work. Herd mentality, confirmation bias, etc.

 

May: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-very-ill-blood-cancer-070511658.html

July: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/cia-putin-health-00047046

 

In other news, the CIA Director William Burns appeared to pour cold water on widespread rumors that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be ill, saying there was no evidence backing up such speculation. He added that Putin was “entirely too healthy.”

[Dinar]

On 7/19/2022 at 5:16 PM, Spekulatius said:

I don’t think that war is over this winter. The sanctions for the most part will stay anyways. Europe does not matter in terms of the outcome all that much, its more the US is supplying the weapons. The EU helps quite a bit to keep the Ukraine’s afloat though with monetary aid.

 

I don't understand the animosity toward Soros.

Spek, I respect Soros as a great investor, and I appreciate what he had tried to do in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  I do not appreciate his funding of people like Chesa Boudin and Alvin Bragg and other leftins.  Crime in NYC is going up very sharply, at least in part in my opinion, caused by Bragg's refusal to prosecute criminals for many crimes, and end of cash bail.  When I am worried about taking a walk in one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in NYC, I do not appreciate people who created the situation.  

[Gregmal]

4 hours ago, mcliu said:

Good topic to see psychology at work. Herd mentality, confirmation bias, etc.

 

May: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-very-ill-blood-cancer-070511658.html

July: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/cia-putin-health-00047046

 

In other news, the CIA Director William Burns appeared to pour cold water on widespread rumors that Russian President Vladimir Putin could be ill, saying there was no evidence backing up such speculation. He added that Putin was “entirely too healthy.”

Yea this is a new media tactic Ive noticed over the past 3-5 years. Spreading the disinformation about the health of our "enemies"...Remember when North Korea was in the news? Every other week was a new "where's Kim Jong Un?" article or speculation about his health. They did it with Xi, and now with Putin. Lame and see through. Not really sure what the point is either. 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Spek, I respect Soros as a great investor, and I appreciate what he had tried to do in Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  I do not appreciate his funding of people like Chesa Boudin and Alvin Bragg and other leftins.  Crime in NYC is going up very sharply, at least in part in my opinion, caused by Bragg's refusal to prosecute criminals for many crimes, and end of cash bail.  When I am worried about taking a walk in one of the wealthiest neighborhoods in NYC, I do not appreciate people who created the situation.  

Thanks - makes sense. Soros is funding a lot of things and some probably shouldn't be funded. Good to see Chesa Boudin getting canned for example. We visited my wife's family in the Bay area this spring and never went to SF, because of the prevalent crime. It's shameful to let things slide that far.

 

[CGJB]

22 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea this is a new media tactic Ive noticed over the past 3-5 years. Spreading the disinformation about the health of our "enemies"...Remember when North Korea was in the news? Every other week was a new "where's Kim Jong Un?" article or speculation about his health. They did it with Xi, and now with Putin. Lame and see through. Not really sure what the point is either. 

Here's a link listing 50 headlines of media outlets pushing the idea of Putin being in poor health.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/50-sick-headlines-about-vladimir-putins-health.html#more

[Gregmal]

18 minutes ago, CGJB said:

Here's a link listing 50 headlines of media outlets pushing the idea of Putin being in poor health.

 

 

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/50-sick-headlines-about-vladimir-putins-health.html#more

Yup. Either some weird coincidence, or the definition of collusion. 

[Spekulatius]

Intriguing:

 

[shru]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Intriguing:

 

Quite an interesting idea.

This sparks a new idea in my mind which is quite pacifist.

And that is to use drone to deliver messages of brotherhood and humanity to Russian army. As at the end, Ukrainian and Russian has a lot in common then not. When two people fight over differences, it is better to count their similarities in order to make their differences quite insignificant.

And current war is a Putin's war rather than it is of war between two different tribes people. 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, shru said:

Quite an interesting idea.

This sparks a new idea in my mind which is quite pacifist.

And that is to use drone to deliver messages of brotherhood and humanity to Russian army. As at the end, Ukrainian and Russian has a lot in common then not. When two people fight over differences, it is better to count their similarities in order to make their differences quite insignificant.

And current war is a Putin's war rather than it is of war between two different tribes people. 

That’s a nice thought , but unlikely going to work. The Russians can get all the information they need, if they look for it (some do as is evident by VPN downloads), but most chose to believe their propaganda, because it is convenient for them:

Got to watch this channel if you want to know how the average russian in Moscow thinks:

 

[Xerxes]

Personally I find this lame and disappointing. But that is me. 
 

donations of all kinds to the Ukrainian military, civilian infrastructure, Red Cross etc  is one thing. 
 

But this “sign my ticket” “marketing” idea by the Ukrainian PR brain trust tapping into Western needs to feel important, to gamify, says more about Ukraine than it does of the west. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Xerxes

[Blugolds]

34 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Personally I find this lame and disappointing. But that is me. 
 

donations of all kinds to the Ukrainian military, civilian infrastructure, Red Cross etc  is one thing. 
 

But this “sign my ticket” “marketing” idea by the Ukrainian PR brain trust tapping into Western needs to feel important, to gamify, says more about Ukraine than it does of the west. 

 I felt the same way…tells you all you need to know about what they think of us in the west..

 

As for signing the bombs…this has been done for years, messages on tanks, helmets, munitions, by those in combat, but to commercialize it for average citizens to me is a bit hypocritical…

 

If Ukraine found out Russians were doing this it would be all over the news, sick demented attackers write messages on munitions that level the country…The fact is that those munitions that the US has already given them, for free…are now used as some fun messaging system for anyone with a couple bucks and are potentially killing Russians…lacks a bit of class to me. This isn’t some game, where any instagramer or YouTuber can pay $40 and have their hashtag put on the side of an artillery shell to me is ridiculous and detracts from the seriousness of the situation. 

 

 

As much as I’d like to see Putin or Kim Jung, or any dictator removed, I wouldn’t celebrate killing Russians..

 

. 

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Your take on this, Xerxes and Bluegold, just reflects that you view it as an intellectual exercise.  "What is the price of freedom?",  "What would I do to defend it?", "Is Russia better than the west?", etc etc etc.  When push comes to shove and your people are getting slaughtered none of that matters.  You just do what you got to do.  Let's not forget all the war crimes committed during ww2 by allies.  Dresden, hamburg, nagaski, hiroshima, all horrible and probably worth it from the west perspective.

[Xerxes]

^^^ 

On a different note, I just bought a copy of “Peter the Great” and “Catherine the Great” books, written by Robert Massie.  

 

 

[Spekulatius]

16 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

 I felt the same way…tells you all you need to know about what they think of us in the west..

 

As for signing the bombs…this has been done for years, messages on tanks, helmets, munitions, by those in combat, but to commercialize it for average citizens to me is a bit hypocritical…

 

If Ukraine found out Russians were doing this it would be all over the news, sick demented attackers write messages on munitions that level the country…The fact is that those munitions that the US has already given them, for free…are now used as some fun messaging system for anyone with a couple bucks and are potentially killing Russians…lacks a bit of class to me. This isn’t some game, where any instagramer or YouTuber can pay $40 and have their hashtag put on the side of an artillery shell to me is ridiculous and detracts from the seriousness of the situation. 

 

 

As much as I’d like to see Putin or Kim Jung, or any dictator removed, I wouldn’t celebrate killing Russians..

 

. 

 

 

The Russian write messages on shells too, has been done since WW1. Yes, it’s is gamification and you are not really buying the shells either. It’s a way for Ukrainian units them to get donations, not an official Ukrainian army thing. Can’t blame them for trying,  As for killing Russians, that’s one way to sent them home. Other would be preferable,  but this is war and if that’s the only way, then so be it.

Edited July 24, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Here is one way to tap into the Western desire for gamification without the “sign my rocket” bullshit nonsense. 
 

Come up with different avenues for people to donate that shows credible tangible output. For instance, if folks watching on TV the Donbas front crumbling, they could say this donation will help release XX munitions badly needed on this front (obviously w/o being explicit). This way folks would feel to donate knowing they are making a specific donation to where a emotional link has been established. 
 

instead of one big pot going to Ukrainian military. 
 

now of course the reality is that in the background it could be all bullshit. But that doesn’t matter, it gets the money flowing. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

soldiers get a free pass from me for signing up those bombs etc. as they are the one doing the fighting.

 

commercialization to the masses is a no for me. 

 

34 minutes ago, Blugolds11 said:

 I felt the same way…tells you all you need to know about what they think of us in the west..

 

As for signing the bombs…this has been done for years, messages on tanks, helmets, munitions, by those in combat, but to commercialize it for average citizens to me is a bit hypocritical…

 

If Ukraine found out Russians were doing this it would be all over the news, sick demented attackers write messages on munitions that level the country…The fact is that those munitions that the US has already given them, for free…are now used as some fun messaging system for anyone with a couple bucks and are potentially killing Russians…lacks a bit of class to me. This isn’t some game, where any instagramer or YouTuber can pay $40 and have their hashtag put on the side of an artillery shell to me is ridiculous and detracts from the seriousness of the situation. 

 

 

As much as I’d like to see Putin or Kim Jung, or any dictator removed, I wouldn’t celebrate killing Russians..

 

. 

 

 

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Xerxes