Russia-Ukrainian War

[Xerxes]

it is a very grey zone between offense and defense.

A lot of countries conduct proxy military operations/wars outside their border so that they do not have to do in their own borders. I can think of Iran, Isreal, UAE, U.S., Russia etc. of doing that for years and decades.

 

The problem is most normal folk live in illusionary world, where they think, it is OK for one side to do it but it is not ok for the other side to do it. 

 

I would add that while people complain about war profiteering, I for one believe we need a strong military industrial complex. Not to the point of shaping international politics to capture market share and profit, but just to have that industral base. (think Japan), It can go nuclear if it is choose to.

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

So sad if true, should sent some sunflowers to Putin ASAP:

https://nypost.com/2022/05/02/vladimir-putin-to-undergo-cancer-surgery-transfer-power/

 

 

Seems a helpful 'slip of the knife' could make the transfer permanent. 

Putin was #1 for as long as he was, because he was smarter and more ruthless than all the rest.

This is a transfer to a varsity team patsy, being set up to take the fall.

It would appear that Putin in a box is getting closer.

 

SD

[Spekulatius]

38 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Seems a helpful 'slip of the knife' could make the transfer permanent. 

Putin was #1 for as long as he was, because he was smarter and more ruthless than all the rest.

This is a transfer to a varsity team patsy, being set up to take the fall.

It would appear that Putin in a box is getting closer.

 

SD

Who knows if this report from the NY Post is true; the NY Post isn't exactly the most reputable news source. However, rumors about Putin having cancer are not exactly new and he does not look at that healthy, so maybe there is something to it. Here is an earlier news article with some interesting factoids (or other rumors).

https://news.yahoo.com/putin-visited-cancer-surgeon-dozens-112724988.html

[Xerxes]

CNN reporting what it looks like a formal declaration of war by Kremlin (against Ukraine) on May Day is coming. 
 

————-

unrelated, here is an interesting anecdote for those interested. While most folks are aware of Dec 7 pearl harbour attack, and the subsequent declaration of war by FDR, that declaration of war was against Japan ONLY and not the Axis powers. FDR was itching to fight the Nazi, but still couldn’t do it yet. 
 

Hitler however got sooo excited by the Japanese attack that he gave a hand to FDR by declaring war against the U.S. in Reichstag on Dec 11. And that is how the formal war started between the Reich and the US: by an overexcited Hitler, who wanted to egg the Japanese to enter the war against the Soviet Union. 
 

however, Japan never entered the war against the Soviet Union, until the latter did weeks before the atomic destruction of Hiroshima by invading Manchuria.  

Most folks looking back have a hard time understanding the nuances. But formal declaration matter. It was very difficult at the time for FDR to commit to Europe after the Japanese “sneak” attack. And had Hitler been less excited a different outcome would have came even with the Americans eventually entering the war on the side of allies. 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Xerxes

[ValueArb]

23 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

I don't think that is necessarily true that Russia improved over time. In WW1 they just kept feeding troops into the grinder. As I understand it was a major reason for the revolution.  Afghanistan , maybe not a good comparison as it was guerilla warfare but that didn't end well either.  In WW2 yes, they did improve significantly during the war but also took enormous losses. 

 

I don't doubt it's going to get worse, from UA perspective. Russia is not winning and they will start to lose if they don't adapt.  I don't see them getting efficient though, I think they may just raise troop levels but we will see. Also keep in mind UA is far from perfect and will continue to evolve as well. 

 

The Revolutions podcast said that the Bolscheviks bailed on their first peace agreement with the Germans thinking they could do better, then got crushed losing far more territory before agreeing to far worse peace terms.

 

The history of the Russian revolution according to the podcast is incompetent groups fighting each other while pissing off the peasants as much as possible. Every competent general got saddled with horrifically poor political policies that caused their failure. 

[shru]

On 5/3/2022 at 7:01 AM, no_free_lunch said:

I don't think that is necessarily true that Russia improved over time. In WW1 they just kept feeding troops into the grinder. As I understand it was a major reason for the revolution.  Afghanistan , maybe not a good comparison as it was guerilla warfare but that didn't end well either.  In WW2 yes, they did improve significantly during the war but also took enormous losses. 

 

I don't doubt it's going to get worse, from UA perspective. Russia is not winning and they will start to lose if they don't adapt.  I don't see them getting efficient though, I think they may just raise troop levels but we will see. Also keep in mind UA is far from perfect and will continue to evolve as well. 

Thank you for directing my perspectives.

[Spekulatius]

17 hours ago, Xerxes said:

CNN reporting what it looks like a formal declaration of war by Kremlin (against Ukraine) on May Day is coming. 
 

————-

unrelated, here is an interesting anecdote for those interested. While most folks are aware of Dec 7 pearl harbour attack, and the subsequent declaration of war by FDR, that declaration of war was against Japan ONLY and not the Axis powers. FDR was itching to fight the Nazi, but still couldn’t do it yet. 
 

Hitler however got sooo excited by the Japanese attack that he gave a hand to FDR by declaring war against the U.S. in Reichstag on Dec 11. And that is how the formal war started between the Reich and the US: by an overexcited Hitler, who wanted to egg the Japanese to enter the war against the Soviet Union. 
 

however, Japan never entered the war against the Soviet Union, until the latter did weeks before the atomic destruction of Hiroshima by invading Manchuria.  

Most folks looking back have a hard time understanding the nuances. But formal declaration matter. It was very difficult at the time for FDR to commit to Europe after the Japanese “sneak” attack. And had Hitler been less excited a different outcome would have came even with the Americans eventually entering the war on the side of allies. 

Declaration of war is necessary for Putin to declare mobilization which is the next escalation step for Putin. That means the "special operation" as it is called right now is over and a real war starts.

 

Putin always doubles up on losing endeavors- that's something you can count on.

[Xerxes]

At least, it will no longer be illegal to say war … though you would still be arrested I reckon. 
 

unrelated just saw this. There are a lot of coverage about Russia running out of tanks etc. Our NATO inventories are 1/3 empty since the war started. 
 

 

[no_free_lunch]

One of the motivation for lend lease in the 30s was to provide the defense industry the opportunity to scale up.  Hopefully that is now happening in NATO countries.  I don't know how to weight it all out and certainly lack of equipment and stock is risky but I know from my investing that companies usually end up constrained by demand not supply. Just a question of how quickly they can scale. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[rkbabang]

On 5/3/2022 at 12:03 PM, Xerxes said:

"War is a racket" book was actually on my to read list since 2010. Sadly, I have not read it yet.

 

War Is A Racket: Original Edition : Butler, Smedley D: Books - Amazon 

Worth the read.  It is also very short and quick to read, so definitely worth it.  $0.99 for Kindle version, for another $1.95 they will through in the audiobook version (I'm not sure if you have to have an audible membership or not to see that). 

https://www.amazon.com/War-Racket-Smedley-Butler-ebook/dp/B0046W7MEA

Also I think you can download the pdf for free if you search around for it.

 

[Castanza]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/ukraines-military-advantage-and-russias-stark-choices/

 

Solid Podcast in general, but the Ukraine Russia coverage has been good

[ValueArb]

On 5/4/2022 at 8:08 AM, Xerxes said:

At least, it will no longer be illegal to say war … though you would still be arrested I reckon. 
 

unrelated just saw this. There are a lot of coverage about Russia running out of tanks etc. Our NATO inventories are 1/3 empty since the war started. 
 

 

 

 

We are at war. We are using our extra inventory in the right place, while keeping more than enough for any reasonable risks that appears.

[no_free_lunch]

Interesting video from Russia.  It appears legit to me.  On this talk show, the guest is now openly talking about the strength of Ukraine's position, in particular with general mobilization and enhanced weapons from NATO members.  He then calls into question the ability of Russia to generate a successful army from conscripts.  Possible I am getting snowed by western propaganda but I haven't seen anything like this since the war started.  Is Russia starting to signal position change?  I don't think they were prepared for the kind of war, maybe this is how they start to wind it down.  Still far from over but encouraging.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[lnofeisone]

There was another video on Telegram where a blogger was embedded with a column that got wiped out crossing the bridge and the blogger was furious.

 

In other news Azov battalion that held Azovstal is now surrendering. Rumor in russian channels is that all injured will go to Russia first and then be exchanged for russian POWs. The remainder of the defenders will be taken as POWs by Russia. I am also starting to think that this is now a precursor to potential de-escalation. Russia keeps what it got and Ukraine is largely in tact. Unclear what that means for the remaining geopolitics, oil, etc. 

[Pelagic]

Little background thread on the commentator in the video. I'm actually surprised there's that much difference of opinion tolerated on Russian TV, although there's also the argument he's setting the stage for easing tensions.

 

 

[no_free_lunch]

Thanks Pelagic.   I knew he must have had military experience at a senior level.  He is very sober and fact based.

 

Inofeisone, Russia just needs to get out of Ukraine altogether.  Ukraine wants all it's stolen territory and people back.  This is like an abusive relationship, it's over, they need to GTFO.  How many Ukrainian soldiers have to die people keep asking, but how many Russian soldiers is that country prepared to squander.   How long is Russia prepared to have sanctions on.  Sooner or later the price of oil will tank and then what will they have.

Edited May 17, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[aws]

It is interesting how much Putin has toned down the escalation, with no May 9th announcement, and a relatively muted reaction to the NATO news. And now with the presumable prisoner exchange in Azovstal it does look like Putin is looking for an offramp, but I just don't see how he gets it. Ukraine isn't just going to give Russia the territory it is currently holding, and with the success in pushing Russia back plus more aid incoming they are likely to want at the very least pre-2022 borders.

[lnofeisone]

@no_free_lunch I subscribe to the idea that Russia should be out of Ukraine and it is starting to look like Putin is looking for de-escalation. I can also appreciate Russia's historical claim but there are non-military options to resolve this. What I don't believe is that this will be settled to pre-2022 borders. I think the reality on the ground is somewhere in-between of what western media and Russian media portray. 

 

As far as oil and its price, I don't think it will collapse anytime soon. Russian oil is now being blended with other oil (51 non-Russian/49Russian) and it's now magically a non-Russian oil. Even Shell is doing it. So money is still being made. Going through the summer is going to be tough but winter for Europe is likely to be brutal without Russian energy. 

[Viking]

It is simply incredible what an unmitigated disaster the Ukraine war is for Russia. And it is getting worse with each passing day.
1.) A complete military failure that is likely to get worse. It looks today like Ukraine is actually going to WIN THE WAR. this was unthinkable at the beginning. The Russian military has been completely exposed. It has been destroyed on the inside by corruption.

2.) A complete political failure - if Ukraine didn’t exist as a national identity (Putin’s claim) pre-war, it certainly has an exceptionally strong national identity today… fighting a successful war against a much stronger adversary forges ‘national identity’ like nothing else. 44 million Ukrainians now hate Russians with a passion that is going to burn for generations.

3.) NATO is more united, relevant and stronger than it has been in decades. It is re-arming. Finland and Sweden are joining; unthinkable for 80 years. A couple of years ago many were discussing the very existence of NATO.

4.) the Russian economy is toast. It will take months/years to bite. But all of Russia is already paying and going to pay a heavy, heavy price. Lots of the best and the brightest have left the country. From an economic perspective, Russia is now effectively a vassal state of China (Xi is likely smiling over this outcome).

5.) Putin is starting to look impotent. His image, carefully constructed over decades, has been completely shredded - Europe/internationally for now. As Russian’s learn of the catastrophe in the coming months Putin’s standing in Russia will also come down, and possibly by a large amount. Big hat no cattle. Not a good place for a  dictator to be. 

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Viking

[james22]

1 minute ago, Viking said:

44 million Ukrainians now hate Russians with a passion that is going to burn for generations.

 

You'd think. But that may be an assumption only a citizen of a democracy would make?

 

I was pretty surprised when visiting Tbilisi several years ago when a girl I met said I'd love the Russian girls who visited Georgia.

As she'd just shared that her brother had fought against the Russians when they invaded ten years earlier.

When I asked her about it, she said no one held individuals responsible for their governments.

[Spekulatius]

I think in the long run, the only way to keep Ukraine safe is to admit them to the NATO. That's the end game here, Essentially they are already in through the back door. Maybe not as a full member, but through contractual terms with individual members providing weapons, intelligence and with the EU membership also providing economic aid (which will be needed for many years.

 

There simply is no way the Ukraine remains neutral after all this. Besides nuclear saber rattling, there is nothing Putin can do about it.

[Xerxes]

Viking

The enemy gets a vote too.  
 

Ukrainian military victory on the field is one thing, getting to a ceasefire, discussing the state of borders, needs the other side on the table being willing too. 
 

This could easily be a de-escalating phase, but the actual state of war can go on for years. it is no peace, if resident in Kiev would need to look out for that random ballistic/cruise missile coming their way. 
 

After the end of the Korean War, United States and People Republic of China remained in a state of war for 20 years until the Kissinger/Nixon pivot. Never mind that today Russia and Japan are technically not closed out their conflict from WW2 with a peace treaty. Still pending …

[Xerxes]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think in the long run, the only way to keep Ukraine safe is to admit them to the NATO. That's the end game here, Essentially they are already in through the back door. Maybe not as a full member, but through contractual terms with individual members providing weapons, intelligence and with the EU membership also providing economic aid (which will be needed for many years.

 

There simply is no way the Ukraine remains neutral after all this. Besides nuclear saber rattling, there is nothing Putin can do about it.

disagree. 
 

Russia is in conflict and has resources in Ukraine. Admitting Ukraine to NATO would mean a formal immediate declaration/state of war against Russia. Not talking nuclear war here and don’t mean to suggest Russia’ convention forces can do anything. 
 

Nonetheless are we ready to send your sons and daughters in the trenches in the Eastern Europe to fight and to die.

[Xerxes]

for those of you that are familiar with the history of Mongol empire in Russia and the Golden Horde, … there is potential (I think) 40 years from now for Ukraine to become to Russia what the Duchy of Moscow became to the Golden Horde  

[Viking]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

You'd think. But that may be an assumption only a citizen of a democracy would make?

 

I was pretty surprised when visiting Tbilisi several years ago when a girl I met said I'd love the Russian girls who visited Georgia.

As she'd just shared that her brother had fought against the Russians when they invaded ten years earlier.

When I asked her about it, she said no one held individuals responsible for their governments.

@james22 good point. I think magnitude matters. A lot. It also matters who wins (the victor controls the narrative). Look at all the death and destruction going on in Ukraine today. How many people have died? Maimed for life. Civilians deaths? Children deaths and maiming? Cities obliterated. The Russians are doing what Russians do… their are being vicious and exacting maximum pain. And it is not over. 
 

If the brother of the girl you met had been killed by Russians do you think she would have a different perspective? I watched a video of a Ukrainian father who said if his child was killed in the war he would spend the rest of his life killing Russians. I don’t think he is an outlyer.

 

i doubt we see Russian’s vacationing in Ukraine any time soon UNLESS we see regime change in Russia - followed by significant policy change (they get out of Ukraine’s shorts).

Edited May 17, 2022 by Viking